HDFC Asset Management Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Amid Bearish Price Action

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 23 Jan 2026, HDFC AMC's open interest (OI) in futures and options contracts rose sharply by 7,433 contracts to 49,533 from the previous 42,100, marking a 17.66% increase. This expansion in OI was accompanied by a futures volume of 31,518 contracts, indicating active participation in the derivatives market. The futures value stood at approximately ₹1,35,694 lakhs, while the options segment contributed a staggering ₹10,300.74 crores, culminating in a total derivatives value of ₹1,36,410 lakhs.

The underlying stock price closed at ₹2,439, having touched an intraday low of ₹2,436.4, down 2.5% on the day. Notably, the weighted average price of traded volumes skewed towards the lower end of the day’s range, suggesting selling pressure.

Price Performance and Moving Averages

HDFC AMC’s price performance on the day lagged behind its sector, which declined by 1.46%, and the Sensex, which fell 0.75%. The stock’s 1-day return was -2.16%, underperforming both benchmarks. Furthermore, the share price is trading below all key moving averages — 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — signalling a sustained bearish trend and weakening investor sentiment.

Investor Participation and Liquidity

Delivery volumes on 22 Jan 2026 fell sharply by 41.76% to 4.54 lakh shares compared to the 5-day average, indicating reduced long-term investor participation. Despite this, liquidity remains adequate, with the stock supporting trade sizes up to ₹7.13 crores based on 2% of the 5-day average traded value, ensuring that institutional and retail traders can execute sizeable orders without significant price impact.

Interpreting the Open Interest Surge

The sharp increase in open interest amid falling prices suggests that fresh positions are being initiated, likely on the short side. This pattern typically indicates that traders are betting on further downside or hedging existing long exposures. The fact that volume is concentrated near the day’s low reinforces the bearish sentiment prevailing in the market.

Open interest growth alongside price declines often points to strengthening bearish conviction rather than short covering. If short covering were dominant, one would expect prices to rise or at least stabilise. Instead, the data implies that market participants are positioning for continued weakness in HDFC AMC’s shares.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

HDFC AMC currently holds a Mojo Score of 61.0, categorised as a 'Hold' rating, a downgrade from its previous 'Buy' status as of 8 Jan 2026. The Market Cap Grade stands at 2, reflecting its mid-cap status with a market capitalisation of ₹1,04,717.14 crores. This rating adjustment aligns with the recent technical weakness and subdued investor interest, signalling caution among analysts and market participants.

Sector and Market Context

The capital markets sector, to which HDFC AMC belongs, has experienced moderate declines, but the stock’s underperformance relative to its peers and the broader Sensex highlights company-specific challenges or profit-taking pressures. The sector’s 1-day return of -1.46% contrasts with HDFC AMC’s sharper fall, underscoring the stock’s vulnerability in the current market environment.

Potential Directional Bets and Market Positioning

Given the derivatives data, traders appear to be increasing bearish bets on HDFC AMC. The rise in open interest combined with falling prices and volume concentration near lows suggests that fresh short positions are being established rather than existing shorts being covered. This positioning could be driven by concerns over near-term earnings, sector headwinds, or broader market volatility impacting capital markets stocks.

Investors should monitor upcoming corporate announcements, sector developments, and macroeconomic indicators that could influence sentiment. The current technical setup advises prudence, with the possibility of further downside if selling pressure persists.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

While the current technical and derivatives data point to bearish positioning, investors should weigh these signals against fundamental factors such as HDFC AMC’s asset management performance, fee income trends, and broader market conditions. The stock’s downgrade to a 'Hold' rating by MarketsMOJO reflects a cautious stance, suggesting that investors await clearer signs of recovery or stability before committing fresh capital.

Traders with a higher risk appetite may consider short-term strategies aligned with the prevailing bearish momentum, while long-term investors might look for signs of a turnaround, including improved delivery volumes and a rebound above key moving averages.

Summary

HDFC Asset Management Company Ltd’s derivatives market activity on 23 Jan 2026 reveals a pronounced increase in open interest amid declining prices and volume concentration near lows. This combination signals growing bearish bets and a cautious market stance. The downgrade in analyst rating to 'Hold' and underperformance relative to sector and Sensex benchmarks further reinforce the need for prudence. Investors should closely monitor evolving market dynamics and company fundamentals before making directional decisions.

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