HDFC Bank Ltd Declines 6.24% Amidst Elevated Volumes and Technical Shifts

5 January: Strong Buy Upgrade Amid Robust Fundamentals

HDFC Bank began the week with a significant upgrade from MarketsMOJO, moving from a 'Buy' to a 'Strong Buy' rating on 2 January 2026. This upgrade was supported by the bank’s solid fundamentals, including an average Return on Assets (ROA) of 1.74%, a healthy Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of 17.65%, and impressive net profit growth of 20.06% annually. The stock traded near its 52-week high of Rs.1,020.35, closing at Rs.977.70, despite a 2.35% decline on the day. The upgrade reflected confidence in the bank’s operational excellence, strong capital buffers, and bullish technical momentum, with a MarketsMOJO Mojo Score of 80.0.

6 January: Elevated Volumes Amid Price Pressure and Technical Weakness

On 6 January, HDFC Bank saw a surge in trading volumes, with over 90 lakh shares changing hands, yet the stock price declined by 1.56% to Rs.962.40. Despite strong investor participation, the stock traded below all key moving averages, signalling technical weakness. Delivery volumes surged by 121.89% compared to the five-day average, indicating genuine accumulation, but the price underperformance relative to the Sensex (-0.19%) and the private banking sector (+0.16%) suggested cautious sentiment. The narrow intraday range and declining price highlighted a consolidation phase amid profit-booking pressures.

7 January: Exceptional Volume Continues Amid Price Decline; Strong Buy Rating Maintained

Trading activity intensified on 7 January, with over 1.54 crore shares traded, marking a significant liquidity event. Despite this, the stock price fell 1.38% to Rs.949.15, extending the three-day decline to 5.11%. The stock remained below all major moving averages, reinforcing a bearish technical outlook. Delivery volumes increased by 95.3% from the previous day, suggesting mixed signals of accumulation and distribution. The MarketsMOJO rating remained at Strong Buy, reflecting confidence in the bank’s fundamentals despite short-term volatility. The private banking sector declined 0.42%, with HDFC Bank underperforming the sector and Sensex.

8 January: Downgrade to Buy Amid Technical Softening Despite Strong Fundamentals

On 8 January, MarketsMOJO downgraded HDFC Bank’s rating from Strong Buy to Buy, reflecting a shift in technical indicators despite the bank’s continued robust fundamentals. The stock closed at Rs.946.60, down 0.27%, trading below key moving averages and showing mildly bearish MACD readings on weekly and monthly charts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained neutral, while Bollinger Bands showed bearish patterns weekly but mildly bullish monthly. The downgrade acknowledged the bank’s strong ROA of 1.74%, CAR of 17.65%, and net profit growth of 20.06%, but highlighted emerging technical caution and valuation concerns with a P/B ratio of 2.8 and PEG of 2.9.

9 January: Exceptional Trading Volume Amidst Five-Day Price Decline

HDFC Bank closed the week on 9 January with extraordinary trading volumes exceeding 2.22 crore shares, yet the stock price continued its downward trajectory, closing at Rs.938.70, down 0.83% on the day and 5.94% over the past five sessions. The stock remained below all major moving averages, signalling a bearish trend. Delivery volumes increased by 6.66% compared to the recent average, suggesting some accumulation despite the price decline. The private banking sector index fell 0.80%, and the Sensex declined 0.12%, with HDFC Bank underperforming both. The Mojo Score was downgraded to 72.0, reflecting a Buy rating as of 7 January, indicating a recalibration of near-term expectations amid technical challenges.

Weekly Price Performance: HDFC Bank vs Sensex

Key Takeaways

Fundamental Strength: HDFC Bank’s robust fundamentals remain intact, with strong ROA, CAR, and consistent profit growth underpinning its market leadership. The bank’s large market capitalisation and institutional investor confidence support its long-term outlook.

Technical Weakness: The week’s price decline was accompanied by the stock trading below all key moving averages and mixed technical signals, including mildly bearish MACD and neutral RSI readings. This technical softening led to a downgrade from Strong Buy to Buy.

Elevated Volumes: Exceptional trading volumes and increased delivery volumes throughout the week indicate heightened investor interest and a mix of accumulation and distribution activity, reflecting uncertainty and repositioning among market participants.

Relative Underperformance: The stock underperformed the Sensex and private banking sector indices, highlighting near-term caution despite strong fundamentals and recent rating upgrades.

Valuation Considerations: Premium valuation metrics such as P/B and PEG ratios suggest the stock is priced for growth, warranting careful monitoring of earnings momentum and macroeconomic factors that could impact sentiment.

Conclusion

HDFC Bank Ltd’s performance in the week ending 9 January 2026 reflects a complex interplay between strong fundamental credentials and emerging technical challenges. While the bank’s financial metrics and market position remain robust, the sustained price decline and technical softening have tempered near-term optimism. Elevated trading volumes and delivery data suggest active repositioning by investors, with a cautious stance prevailing amid broader market volatility. The downgrade to a Buy rating signals a need for vigilance, as the stock navigates a consolidation phase. Investors should continue to monitor technical developments alongside fundamental updates to assess the stock’s trajectory in the evolving market environment.

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