Technical Trend Overview and Price Action
On 4 Feb 2026, HDFC Bank’s share price closed at ₹948.40, up from the previous close of ₹927.30, marking a daily gain of 2.28%. The intraday range saw a low of ₹945.05 and a high of ₹990.00, indicating increased volatility and buying interest. The stock remains below its 52-week high of ₹1,020.35 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹830.80, suggesting a recovery phase within a broader trading range.
Technically, the overall trend has shifted from bearish to mildly bearish, signalling a tentative improvement in momentum but still cautioning investors about potential downside risks. This shift is corroborated by the weekly and monthly MACD readings, which remain bearish and mildly bearish respectively, indicating that while short-term momentum is weak, longer-term trends may be stabilising.
MACD and Momentum Indicators
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a key momentum oscillator, continues to show bearish signals on the weekly chart, reflecting persistent selling pressure. However, the monthly MACD has improved to a mildly bearish stance, hinting at a possible bottoming out or consolidation phase. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD suggests that while short-term traders may face volatility, longer-term investors could see stabilisation in momentum.
Complementing this, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator remains bearish on the weekly timeframe and mildly bearish monthly, reinforcing the cautious tone. The KST’s gradual improvement on the monthly scale aligns with the MACD’s mildly bearish reading, signalling that momentum deterioration may be slowing.
RSI and Overbought/Oversold Conditions
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory. This absence of overbought or oversold conditions suggests that the stock is neither excessively bought nor sold, providing a balanced backdrop for potential price moves. Investors should watch for any RSI breakouts above 70 or dips below 30, which could signal stronger directional shifts.
Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands
Daily moving averages remain bearish, indicating that the stock price is trading below key short-term averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This bearish alignment typically signals downward pressure, but the recent price uptick suggests a possible test of these resistance levels in the near term.
Bollinger Bands present a mixed picture: weekly bands are mildly bearish, reflecting some downward pressure and volatility compression, while monthly bands are bullish, indicating longer-term upward momentum. This contrast highlights the importance of timeframe in technical analysis and suggests that while short-term traders may face resistance, the broader trend could be supportive.
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Volume and On-Balance Volume (OBV) Analysis
On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicators on both weekly and monthly charts show no clear trend, indicating that volume flow has been relatively neutral. This lack of directional volume support suggests that recent price gains may not yet be backed by strong institutional buying, warranting caution for momentum traders.
Comparative Returns and Market Context
Examining HDFC Bank’s returns relative to the Sensex provides additional context for its technical signals. Over the past week, the stock returned 2.33%, marginally outperforming the Sensex’s 2.30%. However, over the one-month and year-to-date periods, the stock underperformed with returns of -5.27% and -4.37% respectively, compared to the Sensex’s -2.36% and -1.74%. This underperformance aligns with the mildly bearish technical stance.
Longer-term returns paint a more positive picture. Over one year, HDFC Bank has delivered 12.89% returns, outpacing the Sensex’s 8.49%. However, over three and five years, the stock’s returns of 14.35% and 20.42% lag behind the Sensex’s 37.63% and 66.63%, indicating that while the bank has shown resilience, it has not matched broader market gains in the medium term. Impressively, over a decade, HDFC Bank has outperformed the Sensex with a 263.44% return versus 245.70%, underscoring its long-term value creation.
Dow Theory and Market Sentiment
Dow Theory readings add further nuance. Weekly signals are mildly bullish, suggesting some optimism in short-term price action, while monthly signals show no clear trend. This divergence reinforces the mixed technical picture, where short-term momentum may be improving but longer-term confirmation remains elusive.
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Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings
HDFC Bank currently holds a Mojo Score of 54.0, placing it in the 'Hold' category, an upgrade from its previous 'Sell' rating as of 3 Feb 2026. This improvement reflects a cautious optimism among analysts, acknowledging the recent technical momentum shift while recognising ongoing risks. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating a large-cap status but with limited upside potential in the near term.
Investors should weigh these ratings alongside the mixed technical signals and relative performance metrics to make informed decisions. The upgrade from 'Sell' to 'Hold' suggests that while the stock is no longer a clear underperformer, it may not yet be a compelling buy without further confirmation of trend reversal.
Investment Implications and Outlook
In summary, HDFC Bank’s technical parameters reveal a stock in transition. The shift from bearish to mildly bearish momentum, combined with mixed signals from MACD, RSI, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands, suggests a cautious environment for investors. Short-term traders may find opportunities in the current volatility, but longer-term investors should monitor for confirmation of sustained momentum improvement.
Given the stock’s historical outperformance over a decade and recent upgrade in analyst sentiment, HDFC Bank remains a key player in the private sector banking sector. However, its underperformance relative to the Sensex over the medium term and neutral volume trends warrant a measured approach.
Investors are advised to watch for a sustained break above key moving averages and a bullish crossover in MACD to signal a more definitive uptrend. Until then, the stock’s technical profile suggests a balanced risk-reward scenario, favouring those with a medium to long-term investment horizon.
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