HDFC Bank Ltd. Technical Momentum Shifts to Bearish Amid Market Volatility

Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement

As of 10 Feb 2026, HDFC Bank’s share price closed at ₹937.25, down 0.41% from the previous close of ₹941.15. The intraday range saw a high of ₹950.55 and a low of ₹935.35, indicating some volatility but an overall downward bias. The stock remains comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹830.80 but still below its 52-week high of ₹1,020.35, signalling a consolidation phase after a strong rally in previous years.

The technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to bearish, reflecting a growing negative momentum. This shift is corroborated by several key indicators, including the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands, and moving averages, which collectively paint a nuanced picture of the stock’s near-term outlook.

MACD and Momentum Indicators Signal Weakening

The MACD indicator, a widely followed momentum oscillator, remains bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly chart. This suggests that the short-term momentum is weakening more rapidly than the longer-term trend, which still shows some residual strength but is under pressure. The bearish weekly MACD indicates that the recent price declines are supported by increasing downside momentum, a warning sign for traders looking for a rebound.

Meanwhile, the KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator aligns with this view, showing bearish signals on the weekly timeframe and mildly bearish on the monthly. This further confirms the deceleration in price momentum and the potential for continued downward pressure in the near term.

RSI and Bollinger Bands: Mixed Signals

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in a neutral zone. This indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting that the current price action is balanced but vulnerable to directional shifts depending on broader market sentiment.

Bollinger Bands present a contrasting picture: bearish on the weekly chart but bullish on the monthly. The weekly bearish signal implies that the stock price is trending towards the lower band, reflecting increased volatility and potential downside risk in the short term. Conversely, the monthly bullish signal suggests that over a longer horizon, the stock may still have room to recover or consolidate before any sustained uptrend resumes.

Moving Averages and Daily Price Action

Daily moving averages have turned bearish, reinforcing the short-term negative outlook. The stock price trading below key moving averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages typically signals a weakening trend and can trigger further selling from technical traders. This bearish crossover or sustained trading below these averages often acts as resistance, making it harder for the stock to regain upward momentum without a significant catalyst.

Volume and Trend Confirmation

On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicators on both weekly and monthly charts show no clear trend, indicating that volume has not decisively confirmed the price movements. This lack of volume confirmation suggests that the recent price declines may not yet be supported by strong selling pressure, leaving room for potential volatility and reversals depending on market developments.

Similarly, Dow Theory analysis on weekly and monthly charts shows no definitive trend, reflecting the current indecisiveness in the broader market context for HDFC Bank’s stock.

Comparative Performance and Market Context

When analysing HDFC Bank’s returns relative to the benchmark Sensex, the stock has underperformed over shorter timeframes but outperformed over longer horizons. For instance, over the past week, HDFC Bank gained 1.07% compared to Sensex’s 2.94%, and over the past month, it declined by 0.15% while Sensex rose 0.59%. Year-to-date, the stock is down 5.50%, lagging the Sensex’s 1.36% decline.

However, over one year, HDFC Bank has delivered an 8.22% return, slightly outperforming the Sensex’s 7.97%. Over three and five years, the stock’s returns of 13.65% and 16.28% respectively lag the Sensex’s 38.25% and 63.78%, indicating a more conservative growth trajectory relative to the broader market. Notably, over a decade, HDFC Bank has outperformed the Sensex with a remarkable 265.40% return versus 249.97%, underscoring its long-term value creation.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

MarketsMOJO’s latest assessment downgraded HDFC Bank’s Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell on 9 Feb 2026, reflecting the deteriorating technical outlook and cautious sentiment. The current Mojo Score stands at 48.0, signalling a weak technical profile. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating the stock’s large market capitalisation but limited technical strength at present.

This downgrade aligns with the bearish technical trend and the mixed signals from momentum indicators, suggesting investors should exercise prudence and closely monitor price action for confirmation of any trend reversals.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

Given the current technical landscape, HDFC Bank’s stock appears to be in a consolidation or mild correction phase. The bearish weekly MACD and moving averages point to short-term weakness, while neutral RSI and volume indicators imply that the stock is not yet oversold and could experience further volatility.

Investors should watch for a sustained break below key support levels near ₹930 and the 52-week low of ₹830.80, which could signal deeper downside. Conversely, a rebound above the 50-day moving average and a bullish crossover in MACD would be required to restore confidence and signal a potential recovery.

Long-term investors may find comfort in the stock’s historical outperformance over 10 years and its strong fundamentals, but the current technical signals warrant caution for those seeking near-term gains.

Summary

HDFC Bank Ltd. currently faces a challenging technical environment with momentum indicators signalling bearishness, particularly on weekly timeframes. The downgrade in Mojo Grade to Sell reflects this shift, urging investors to adopt a cautious stance. While the stock’s long-term fundamentals and historical returns remain robust, near-term price action is vulnerable to further downside pressure unless key technical support levels hold and momentum indicators improve.

Market participants should closely monitor MACD, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands for signs of trend reversal or continuation. Until then, a prudent approach with risk management is advisable for those holding or considering exposure to HDFC Bank.

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