HDFC Bank Ltd. Technical Momentum Shifts to Bearish Amid Mixed Indicators

Technical Trend Shift and Moving Averages

The most significant development in HDFC Bank’s technical profile is the transition from a sideways trend to a bearish one. This shift is corroborated by the daily moving averages, which have turned bearish, signalling increased selling pressure in the short term. The stock’s current price of ₹932.65 remains below key moving averages, suggesting that momentum is weakening and the risk of further downside cannot be discounted.

Today’s trading session saw the stock reach a high of ₹941.40 and a low of ₹928.35, indicating some intraday volatility but limited upward follow-through. The 52-week high stands at ₹1,020.35, while the 52-week low is ₹813.20, placing the current price closer to the upper half of its annual range but still under pressure from technical resistance.

MACD and Momentum Oscillators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a bearish outlook on the weekly chart, signalling that the short-term momentum is weakening relative to the longer-term trend. The monthly MACD is mildly bearish, indicating that while the longer-term trend is not decisively negative, caution is warranted. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings suggests that the stock may be undergoing a correction phase within a broader uptrend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of extreme readings implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further directional movement based on other technical factors.

Bollinger Bands and KST Indicator

Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are mildly bearish, reflecting increased volatility and a tendency for the price to test lower band levels. Conversely, the monthly Bollinger Bands are mildly bullish, suggesting that on a longer horizon, the stock retains some upward momentum and could find support near current levels.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator adds further complexity: it is bearish on the weekly timeframe but bullish on the monthly chart. This mixed signal reinforces the notion of short-term weakness within a longer-term positive trend, highlighting the importance of monitoring weekly price action closely for confirmation of trend direction.

Volume and Dow Theory Assessment

On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly chart, indicating that volume is not decisively supporting either buying or selling pressure in the short term. However, the monthly OBV is mildly bearish, suggesting that longer-term accumulation may be weakening.

Dow Theory assessments align with the broader technical picture, with weekly and monthly readings both mildly bearish. This indicates that the market’s perception of HDFC Bank’s trend is cautious, with potential for further downside if support levels fail to hold.

Comparative Returns and Market Context

Despite the recent technical deterioration, HDFC Bank’s longer-term returns remain robust. Over the past year, the stock has delivered an 11.66% return, outperforming the Sensex’s 8.49% gain. However, shorter-term returns have been less encouraging, with a 1-month decline of 6.02% compared to the Sensex’s 3.17% fall, and a year-to-date loss of 5.96% against the Sensex’s 3.37% drop.

Over a 3-year and 5-year horizon, HDFC Bank’s returns of 15.44% and 36.13% respectively lag behind the Sensex’s 38.79% and 75.67%, reflecting the bank’s more recent challenges amid broader market strength. Notably, the 10-year return of 261.32% surpasses the Sensex’s 236.52%, underscoring the bank’s long-term growth credentials despite current technical headwinds.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

MarketsMOJO’s proprietary Mojo Score for HDFC Bank currently stands at 48.0, with a Mojo Grade of Sell, downgraded from Hold on 28 Jan 2026. This downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical parameters and cautious outlook from the analytical model. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating a relatively modest valuation tier within the private sector banking space.

The downgrade signals that investors should exercise caution and consider the risk of further price weakness in the near term. The combination of bearish daily moving averages, weekly MACD, and Dow Theory signals supports a more defensive stance on the stock.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

In summary, HDFC Bank Ltd. is currently navigating a challenging technical environment. The shift from sideways to bearish momentum on weekly and daily charts, combined with mixed monthly signals, suggests a period of consolidation or correction may be underway. Investors should monitor key support levels near ₹920-₹930 and watch for any reversal signals in MACD or RSI that could indicate a resumption of the longer-term uptrend.

Given the stock’s strong historical performance and leadership position in the private banking sector, any technical weakness may present selective buying opportunities for long-term investors. However, short-term traders should remain cautious and consider risk management strategies amid the prevailing bearish momentum.

Summary

HDFC Bank Ltd.’s technical indicators reveal a nuanced but cautious outlook. While the monthly charts suggest some underlying strength, the weekly and daily signals point to bearish momentum and potential downside risk. The recent downgrade in Mojo Grade to Sell reinforces this cautious stance. Investors should weigh the bank’s solid long-term fundamentals against the current technical challenges and consider their investment horizon carefully.

Monitoring key technical levels and volume trends will be critical in the coming weeks to gauge whether the stock can stabilise or if further correction is likely. For now, a prudent approach with attention to risk management appears warranted.

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