Stock Price Movement and Market Context
On 28 Jan 2026, Hilton Metal Forging Ltd's share price reached Rs.27.54, the lowest level recorded in the past year. This new low comes after a sequence of four consecutive days of decline, although the stock showed a modest recovery today, outperforming its sector by 0.56%. Despite this slight uptick, the stock remains below all key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, indicating sustained downward pressure.
In contrast, the broader market, represented by the Sensex, experienced a positive session. After a flat opening with a minor change of 34.88 points, the Sensex climbed 344.50 points to close at 82,236.86, a 0.46% gain. The index remains 4.77% shy of its 52-week high of 86,159.02. Notably, mega-cap stocks led the market rally, while the Sensex trades below its 50-day moving average, which itself is positioned above the 200-day moving average, signalling mixed technical trends.
Long-Term Performance and Valuation Metrics
Hilton Metal Forging Ltd’s one-year performance starkly contrasts with the broader market. The stock has declined by 64.83% over the last 12 months, while the Sensex gained 8.35% during the same period. The stock’s 52-week high was Rs.95.05, underscoring the extent of the recent depreciation.
From a fundamental perspective, the company exhibits weak long-term financial strength. Its average Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) stands at 5.85%, which is modest relative to industry standards. Additionally, the company’s ability to service debt is constrained, with a Debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.56 times, indicating a relatively high leverage position.
These factors contribute to the stock’s current Mojo Grade of Sell, which was downgraded from Strong Sell on 21 Jul 2025. The Mojo Score is 37.0, reflecting cautious sentiment based on multiple financial and market parameters. The company’s Market Cap Grade is 4, suggesting a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers.
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Recent Financial Results and Growth Indicators
Despite the stock’s price decline, Hilton Metal Forging Ltd reported very positive quarterly results in September 2025. Net sales for the quarter stood at Rs.87.64 crores, representing a robust growth of 132.1% compared to the previous four-quarter average. Net profit growth was even more pronounced, with a 1060% increase, signalling a significant turnaround in profitability.
Profit Before Tax less Other Income (PBT less OI) for the quarter was Rs.1.32 crores, a 2100% rise relative to the prior four-quarter average. The company’s operating profit to interest ratio reached its highest level at 2.24 times, indicating improved coverage of interest expenses by operating earnings.
Valuation metrics also suggest an attractive profile. The company’s ROCE for the recent period was 4.5%, and it trades at an Enterprise Value to Capital Employed ratio of 0.9, which is below the average historical valuations of its peers. The Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio stands at 0.4, reflecting the relationship between the stock’s price, earnings growth, and valuation.
Shareholding and Promoter Activity
Promoter confidence appears to be strengthening, with promoters increasing their stake by 6% over the previous quarter. Currently, promoters hold 13.71% of the company’s equity. This increase in promoter holding may reflect a positive outlook from the company’s controlling shareholders despite the stock’s recent price weakness.
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Comparative Performance and Sector Context
Over the last three years, Hilton Metal Forging Ltd has underperformed the BSE500 index across multiple time frames, including the last three months, one year, and three years. This underperformance highlights persistent challenges in maintaining competitive returns relative to the broader market and sector peers.
The Castings & Forgings sector itself has experienced mixed trends, with some companies showing resilience while others face headwinds. Hilton Metal Forging Ltd’s stock price trajectory and financial metrics suggest it is currently positioned towards the lower end of sector performance.
Summary of Key Financial and Market Indicators
To summarise, Hilton Metal Forging Ltd’s stock has declined sharply to Rs.27.54, its lowest level in 52 weeks, reflecting a combination of weak long-term fundamentals and market pressures. The company’s financial ratios, including ROCE and Debt to EBITDA, indicate areas of concern, while recent quarterly results show notable profit growth and improved interest coverage.
Promoter stake increases and attractive valuation multiples provide additional context to the stock’s current standing. However, the stock remains below all major moving averages and has significantly underperformed the Sensex and sector indices over the past year.
Conclusion
Hilton Metal Forging Ltd’s fall to a 52-week low underscores the challenges faced by the company in sustaining its market valuation amid financial and sectoral pressures. The stock’s recent performance and fundamental indicators provide a comprehensive picture of its current position within the Castings & Forgings sector and the broader market environment.
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