Key Events This Week
09 Feb: Stock opens strong at Rs.964.00 (+2.29%) amid positive market momentum
10 Feb: Valuation shifts from attractive to fair as price reaches Rs.968.60 (+0.48%)
12 Feb: Q3 FY26 results reveal 56.78% profit plunge, triggering cautious sentiment
13 Feb: Sharp gap down and intraday low at Rs.910.05 amid surge in put option activity
13 Feb: Week closes at Rs.908.65 (-5.77% on day), underperforming sector and Sensex
09 February 2026: Strong Opening Amid Positive Market Momentum
Hindalco Industries began the week on a positive note, closing at Rs.964.00, up 2.29% from the previous Friday’s close of Rs.942.45. This outperformance was in line with the broader market rally, as the Sensex gained 1.04% to close at 37,113.23. The stock’s volume of 198,525 shares indicated healthy investor interest. The strong start reflected optimism around the company’s operational stability and sectoral tailwinds in non-ferrous metals.
10 February 2026: Valuation Recalibration Amid Continued Price Gains
On 10 February, Hindalco’s stock price edged higher to Rs.968.60 (+0.48%), marginally outperforming the Sensex’s 0.25% gain. However, this day marked a significant shift in market perception as the company’s valuation grade moved from “attractive” to “fair.” The price-to-earnings ratio stood at 12.09, with a price-to-book value of 1.61 and EV/EBITDA of 8.00, signalling that the stock was trading closer to fair value after a strong rally. Despite this, operational metrics such as ROCE at 13.55% and ROE at 13.29% remained solid, supporting the company’s fundamentals. The MarketsMOJO Mojo Score was 75.0 with a “Buy” grade, reflecting confidence tempered by valuation concerns.
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12 February 2026: Quarterly Results Trigger Profit Warning
Hindalco’s Q3 FY26 earnings report released on 12 February revealed a sharp 56.78% quarter-on-quarter decline in profit, attributed to margin pressures. The stock price reacted negatively, closing at Rs.964.30, down 0.14%, while the Sensex fell 0.56%. This disappointing earnings performance raised concerns about near-term profitability and operational challenges, dampening investor enthusiasm. Despite the setback, the stock remained above its longer-term moving averages, suggesting some underlying technical support.
13 February 2026: Sharp Gap Down and Surge in Put Option Activity
The final trading day of the week was marked by significant volatility and bearish sentiment. Hindalco opened with a gap down of 4.39%, closing sharply lower at Rs.908.65, a 5.77% decline from the previous day’s close. Intraday, the stock hit a low of Rs.910.05, reflecting intense selling pressure. This underperformance was more severe than the Aluminium & Aluminium Products sector’s 4.22% decline and the Sensex’s 1.40% fall, highlighting stock-specific headwinds.
Put option activity surged dramatically, with over 10,000 contracts traded at the Rs.900 strike price for the 24 February expiry, signalling growing bearish positioning and hedging among investors. The open interest of 2,799 contracts and turnover of approximately Rs.1353.59 lakhs underscored heightened caution. The stock’s adjusted beta of 1.31 amplified its sensitivity to market swings, contributing to the pronounced decline amid a broadly negative environment.
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Daily Price Comparison: Hindalco vs Sensex (09-13 Feb 2026)
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Rs.964.00 | +2.29% | 37,113.23 | +1.04% |
| 2026-02-10 | Rs.968.60 | +0.48% | 37,207.34 | +0.25% |
| 2026-02-11 | Rs.965.70 | -0.30% | 37,256.72 | +0.13% |
| 2026-02-12 | Rs.964.30 | -0.14% | 37,049.40 | -0.56% |
| 2026-02-13 | Rs.908.65 | -5.77% | 36,532.48 | -1.40% |
Key Takeaways from the Week
Positive Signals: The week began with strong price gains and solid operational metrics supporting Hindalco’s fundamentals. Despite valuation recalibration, the company’s ROCE and ROE remain robust, and the stock trades above key long-term moving averages, indicating underlying technical support.
Cautionary Signals: The sharp profit decline in Q3 FY26 and the subsequent price pressure highlight margin challenges and investor concerns. The significant gap down and intraday volatility on 13 February, coupled with a surge in put option activity at the Rs.900 strike price, reflect growing bearish sentiment and hedging. The downgrade in Mojo Grade from “Buy” to “Hold” further signals a more cautious outlook.
Market Context: Hindalco underperformed both its sector and the broader Sensex during the week, with the Aluminium & Aluminium Products sector also facing pressure. The stock’s high beta amplifies its sensitivity to market swings, contributing to the pronounced declines amid a broadly negative environment.
Conclusion
Hindalco Industries Ltd’s performance in the week ending 13 February 2026 was characterised by a transition from early optimism to pronounced caution. While the company’s fundamentals remain solid, the sharp profit contraction and elevated volatility have weighed on investor sentiment. The stock’s decline of 3.59% over the week, significantly underperforming the Sensex, was driven by a combination of valuation adjustments, disappointing earnings, and heightened bearish positioning in the options market. Technical indicators suggest that longer-term support levels remain intact, but short-term momentum is weak. Investors should monitor upcoming sector developments and earnings updates closely as the stock navigates this period of consolidation and uncertainty.
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