Hindalco Industries Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts to Bullish Amid Strong Price Gains

Technical Trend Upgrade Reflects Growing Confidence

Recent analysis reveals that Hindalco’s technical trend has upgraded from mildly bullish to bullish, reflecting stronger price momentum and improving market sentiment. The stock closed at ₹935.85 on 23 Feb 2026, up 3.35% from the previous close of ₹905.50, demonstrating robust intraday strength with a high of ₹937.80 and a low of ₹901.40. This price action is significant given the stock’s 52-week range of ₹546.25 to ₹1,029.60, indicating it is trading closer to its upper band, which often suggests positive momentum.

MACD Signals Confirm Bullish Momentum

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a key momentum oscillator, is bullish on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This dual timeframe confirmation suggests sustained upward momentum rather than a short-lived rally. The weekly MACD line remains above its signal line, indicating buying pressure, while the monthly MACD supports a longer-term bullish outlook. Such alignment across timeframes often precedes continued price appreciation.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands Support Uptrend

Daily moving averages have turned bullish, with the stock price comfortably above its short-term and medium-term averages. This crossover typically signals a positive trend reversal or continuation, encouraging technical traders to increase exposure. Additionally, Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are bullish, with the price trending near the upper band, reflecting strong volatility and upward momentum. The monthly Bollinger Bands are mildly bullish, suggesting that while the longer-term trend is positive, some caution remains warranted.

RSI and Other Indicators Show Mixed Signals

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in a neutral zone. This indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further price movement in either direction. Meanwhile, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is bullish on both weekly and monthly timeframes, reinforcing the positive momentum narrative. On-Balance Volume (OBV) also supports the bullish case, with rising volume trends confirming that price increases are backed by strong trading activity.

Dow Theory Presents a Nuanced Picture

According to Dow Theory, the weekly trend is mildly bearish, contrasting with a bullish monthly trend. This divergence suggests short-term consolidation or minor pullbacks could occur, but the longer-term outlook remains constructive. Investors should monitor this dynamic closely, as a sustained weekly bearish trend could temper gains, while a monthly bullish trend supports a positive medium-term trajectory.

Comparative Performance Highlights Strong Outperformance

Hindalco’s price momentum is further validated by its impressive returns relative to the Sensex benchmark. Over the past week, the stock gained 2.99% compared to the Sensex’s modest 0.23%. On a one-month basis, Hindalco slightly outperformed with a 0.82% return versus 0.77% for the Sensex. Year-to-date, the stock has surged 5.60%, while the Sensex declined by 2.82%, underscoring the stock’s resilience amid broader market weakness.

Longer-term returns are even more compelling. Over one year, Hindalco has delivered a remarkable 46.47% gain, vastly outpacing the Sensex’s 9.35%. The three-year and five-year returns stand at 115.39% and 203.60% respectively, compared to Sensex returns of 36.45% and 62.73%. Over a decade, Hindalco’s cumulative return of 1,254.34% dwarfs the Sensex’s 249.29%, highlighting the stock’s strong growth trajectory and value creation for shareholders.

Mojo Score Downgrade Reflects Cautious Outlook

Despite the positive technical momentum, MarketsMOJO has downgraded Hindalco’s Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold as of 18 Nov 2025, assigning a Mojo Score of 64.0. The downgrade reflects a more cautious stance, possibly due to valuation concerns or sector-specific risks. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating the company’s large-cap status but also signalling limited upside from a market capitalisation perspective. Investors should weigh these fundamental considerations alongside technical signals when making decisions.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the Non-Ferrous Metals sector, Hindalco is subject to cyclical demand patterns and commodity price volatility. The sector’s performance often correlates with global industrial activity and raw material prices. The current bullish technical signals may indicate an anticipated upturn in sector fundamentals or improved company-specific factors such as operational efficiencies or cost management.

Investor Takeaway: Balancing Technical Strength with Fundamental Caution

Hindalco Industries Ltd’s recent technical upgrades signal a positive shift in price momentum, supported by bullish MACD, moving averages, and volume indicators. The stock’s strong relative performance against the Sensex and its proximity to 52-week highs further reinforce the bullish case. However, the neutral RSI and mildly bearish weekly Dow Theory signal suggest potential short-term volatility or consolidation.

Moreover, the downgrade in Mojo Grade to Hold advises investors to exercise prudence, considering valuation and sector risks. Those with a medium to long-term horizon may find the stock attractive given its historical outperformance and improving technicals, but should remain vigilant to market developments and sector dynamics.

Overall, Hindalco appears poised for further gains, but a balanced approach combining technical analysis with fundamental insights is recommended to navigate the evolving market landscape effectively.

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