Price Movement and Market Context
HPCL’s current market price stands at ₹427.70, slightly down by 0.29% from the previous close of ₹428.95. The stock traded within a range of ₹424.30 to ₹434.55 during the latest session, reflecting modest intraday volatility. Despite this, the stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹508.45, indicating some resistance at higher levels, while comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹287.55, suggesting a solid support base.
Comparatively, HPCL’s recent returns have underperformed the broader Sensex index. Over the past week, the stock declined by 2.78%, whereas the Sensex fell by 1.29%. The one-month and year-to-date returns are more pronounced, with HPCL down 10.03% and 14.29% respectively, compared to Sensex declines of 3.81% and 3.42%. However, the longer-term performance remains robust, with a 1-year return of 15.45% versus Sensex’s 7.73%, and an impressive 10-year return of 265.41% compared to the Sensex’s 236.83%.
Technical Indicators: Mixed Signals Emerge
The technical landscape for HPCL is nuanced, with several indicators signalling divergent trends across different timeframes. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mildly bearish outlook on the weekly chart, suggesting waning upward momentum in the short term. Conversely, the monthly MACD remains bullish, indicating that the longer-term trend still favours gains.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, currently offers no clear signal on both weekly and monthly charts, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of directional bias implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, reinforcing the sideways trend narrative.
Bollinger Bands add further complexity: the weekly chart shows a bearish stance, with the price gravitating towards the lower band, signalling potential downward pressure. Meanwhile, the monthly Bollinger Bands suggest a mildly bullish environment, hinting at underlying strength over a longer horizon.
Moving Averages and Trend Analysis
Daily moving averages for HPCL remain mildly bullish, with short-term averages positioned above longer-term ones, typically a positive sign for price momentum. However, the weekly and monthly trend indicators such as the Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator and Dow Theory assessments lean mildly bearish or show no clear trend, respectively. This divergence between daily and longer-term signals suggests that while short-term price action may offer some upside, the broader trend is uncertain and warrants caution.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis also aligns with this cautious tone, showing mildly bearish signals on both weekly and monthly charts. This indicates that volume trends are not strongly supporting price advances, which could limit the sustainability of any upward moves.
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Mojo Score and Rating Revision
Reflecting these technical developments, HPCL’s MarketsMOJO score currently stands at 64.0, categorised as a 'Hold' rating. This represents a downgrade from the previous 'Buy' grade assigned on 22 January 2026. The downgrade signals a more cautious stance by analysts, acknowledging the recent shift in momentum and the mixed technical signals. The market capitalisation grade remains low at 2, indicating that despite the company’s size, valuation or liquidity factors may be limiting its appeal in the current environment.
Sector and Industry Context
HPCL operates within the Oil sector and industry, which has faced headwinds due to fluctuating crude prices and geopolitical uncertainties. The sector’s cyclical nature often results in volatile price action, which is reflected in HPCL’s technical indicators. Investors should consider these sectoral dynamics alongside company-specific factors when evaluating HPCL’s prospects.
Investment Implications and Outlook
The current technical profile of HPCL suggests a period of consolidation or sideways movement in the near term. While daily moving averages hint at mild bullishness, the weekly and monthly indicators caution against expecting strong upward momentum imminently. The absence of clear RSI signals and the bearish tilt in weekly Bollinger Bands and OBV imply that investors should be vigilant for potential downside risks or limited upside.
Long-term investors may find comfort in the monthly MACD’s bullish stance and the stock’s strong multi-year returns, which have significantly outpaced the Sensex over 3, 5, and 10-year periods. However, short-term traders should be wary of the mildly bearish weekly signals and the recent downgrade in rating, which reflect a more cautious market sentiment.
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Summary
In summary, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. is navigating a complex technical environment marked by a shift from mild bullishness to sideways momentum. The mixed signals from MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and moving averages underscore the need for investors to adopt a balanced approach. While the stock’s long-term fundamentals and returns remain strong, short-term caution is warranted given the recent downgrade and bearish weekly indicators. Monitoring these technical parameters closely will be essential for making informed investment decisions in the coming weeks.
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