Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement
HPCL’s current price stands at ₹419.50, up 1.01% from the previous close of ₹415.30, with intraday highs reaching ₹421.90 and lows at ₹412.50. Despite this modest uptick, the stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹508.45, though comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹287.55. The recent technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to sideways, indicating a pause in the downward momentum and a potential consolidation phase.
This sideways movement is critical as it suggests that the stock may be forming a base before a possible directional move. Investors should note that the daily moving averages have turned mildly bullish, providing some support for the current price level. The daily moving averages’ mild bullishness contrasts with the weekly and monthly indicators, which present a more mixed picture.
MACD Signals: Divergent Weekly and Monthly Perspectives
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reveals a divergence between weekly and monthly timeframes. On the weekly chart, the MACD remains mildly bearish, reflecting recent price weakness and a lack of strong upward momentum. Conversely, the monthly MACD is bullish, signalling that the longer-term trend remains positive despite short-term fluctuations.
This divergence suggests that while short-term traders may face some headwinds, longer-term investors could find comfort in the underlying strength of the stock. The monthly bullish MACD aligns with HPCL’s strong multi-year returns, reinforcing the notion that the company’s fundamentals and sector positioning remain robust.
RSI and Bollinger Bands: Neutral to Mildly Bullish Signals
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory. This indicates that HPCL is neither overbought nor oversold, which supports the sideways trend narrative. The lack of RSI extremes suggests that the stock has room to move in either direction without immediate risk of a sharp reversal.
Bollinger Bands provide additional insight, with weekly readings mildly bearish but monthly readings mildly bullish. The weekly mild bearishness reflects recent price volatility and some downward pressure, while the monthly mild bullishness points to a stabilising trend over a longer horizon. This mixed signal underscores the importance of monitoring price action closely in the coming weeks.
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Moving Averages and KST: Daily Bullishness Amid Weekly and Monthly Bearishness
Daily moving averages have turned mildly bullish, signalling short-term upward momentum. This is a positive sign for traders looking for entry points, as it suggests that recent price gains may have some sustainability. However, the KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator remains mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating that momentum is still somewhat subdued over longer periods.
The KST’s bearish stance tempers enthusiasm, implying that while short-term gains are possible, investors should remain cautious about the broader trend until more convincing bullish signals emerge. This is consistent with the Dow Theory readings, which show a mildly bearish weekly trend and no clear monthly trend, further emphasising the current uncertainty in directional bias.
On-Balance Volume and Market Cap Grade
On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis reveals no clear trend on the weekly chart and a mildly bearish trend on the monthly chart. This suggests that volume flows have not strongly supported recent price movements, which could limit the sustainability of any rallies. The market cap grade for HPCL is 2, indicating a moderate market capitalisation relative to peers in the oil sector.
Despite these mixed volume signals, HPCL’s Mojo Score has improved to 74.0, earning a Buy grade as of 27 January 2026, upgraded from Hold. This upgrade reflects an improved technical and fundamental outlook, supported by the company’s strong historical returns and sector positioning.
Historical Returns: Outperformance Over Sensex
HPCL’s long-term performance has been impressive, significantly outpacing the Sensex across multiple timeframes. Over the past year, the stock has delivered a 21.56% return compared to the Sensex’s 8.61%. Over three and five years, HPCL’s returns stand at 171.22% and 193.38%, respectively, dwarfing the Sensex’s 37.97% and 72.66% returns. Even on a ten-year horizon, HPCL has outperformed with a 258.65% gain versus the Sensex’s 234.22%.
However, recent short-term returns have been weaker, with a 1-week return of -4.30% and a 1-month return of -10.30%, both underperforming the Sensex’s modest declines. Year-to-date, the stock is down 15.93%, compared to the Sensex’s 3.95% fall. These figures highlight the recent volatility and the importance of the current technical consolidation phase.
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Sector Context and Outlook
HPCL operates within the oil sector, which has faced significant headwinds due to fluctuating crude prices, regulatory changes, and global economic uncertainties. Despite these challenges, HPCL’s technical upgrade and improved Mojo Score suggest that the company is navigating these headwinds better than some peers.
The mildly bullish daily moving averages and monthly MACD indicate that the stock could be poised for a recovery if sector conditions improve. However, the mixed signals from weekly indicators and volume trends caution investors to watch for confirmation before committing heavily.
Investment Implications
For investors, the current technical landscape of HPCL suggests a cautious but optimistic stance. The sideways trend following a mildly bearish phase may offer a consolidation opportunity, potentially setting the stage for a renewed uptrend. The upgrade from Hold to Buy by MarketsMOJO, with a Mojo Score of 74.0, reinforces this positive outlook.
Traders should monitor key technical levels, including the daily moving averages and monthly MACD, for signs of sustained momentum. Conversely, the weekly bearish signals and subdued volume trends warrant prudence, especially in the short term.
Overall, HPCL’s strong historical returns and improving technical parameters make it a stock worth watching closely as it attempts to regain upward momentum in a challenging oil sector environment.
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