Key Events This Week
16 Feb: Stock opens at Rs.451.90, modest gain of 0.36%
19 Feb: Intraday low hit at Rs.431.65 amid price pressure
20 Feb: Sharp 10.8% rise in open interest despite bearish price action
20 Feb: Week closes at Rs.431.15, down 4.25%
16 February: Steady Start with Moderate Gains
HPCL began the week on a positive note, closing at Rs.451.90, up 0.36% from the previous close. This modest gain came alongside a stronger Sensex, which rose 0.70% to 36,787.89. The stock’s volume of 83,584 shares indicated reasonable investor interest, setting a stable tone for the week. The broader market optimism was reflected in the oil sector’s performance, with HPCL maintaining its position within the mid-cap space.
17-18 February: Continued Uptrend Before Reversal
HPCL extended its gains over the next two sessions, rising to Rs.454.30 (+0.53%) on 17 Feb and Rs.457.35 (+0.67%) on 18 Feb. These three consecutive days of appreciation saw the stock reach its weekly high of Rs.457.35, outperforming the Sensex’s cumulative 1.15% gain over the same period. Trading volumes remained moderate, with 45,484 and 52,664 shares exchanged respectively. The stock’s upward momentum suggested positive sentiment, supported by its attractive dividend yield of approximately 3.39% at these price levels.
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19 February: Sharp Intraday Decline Amid Price Pressure
The stock’s positive run was abruptly halted on 19 Feb, when HPCL plunged 4.95% to close at Rs.434.70. Intraday, it touched a low of Rs.431.65, marking a 5.62% drop from the previous close. This decline was sharper than the Sensex’s 1.45% fall, signalling significant underperformance. The session was characterised by heavy selling pressure, with volumes surging to 112,971 shares, reflecting heightened investor activity.
HPCL’s technical position deteriorated as it traded below all key moving averages – 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day – indicating weakening momentum. This break in trend followed three days of gains and suggested a shift in market sentiment. Despite the stock’s attractive dividend yield of 3.39%, the price pressure was evident, possibly driven by sector-specific concerns and broader market volatility.
20 February: Rising Open Interest Amid Bearish Price Action
On the final trading day of the week, HPCL’s price continued to decline, closing at Rs.431.15, down 0.82%. This underperformance contrasted with the Sensex’s 0.41% gain, underscoring the stock’s relative weakness. Notably, the derivatives market saw a sharp 10.82% increase in open interest to 38,753 contracts, accompanied by a volume of 35,837 contracts. The futures segment alone accounted for a notional value of approximately ₹99,865 lakhs, while options contributed ₹21,562 crores, signalling robust trading activity.
The rising open interest alongside falling prices typically indicates fresh short positions or hedging activity, suggesting that traders are positioning for further downside or volatility. Investor participation in the cash segment also intensified, with delivery volumes on 19 Feb surging 235.6% above the five-day average, reflecting active long-term investor involvement.
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Weekly Price Performance: Stock vs Sensex
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Rs.451.90 | +0.36% | 36,787.89 | +0.70% |
| 2026-02-17 | Rs.454.30 | +0.53% | 36,904.38 | +0.32% |
| 2026-02-18 | Rs.457.35 | +0.67% | 37,062.35 | +0.43% |
| 2026-02-19 | Rs.434.70 | -4.95% | 36,523.88 | -1.45% |
| 2026-02-20 | Rs.431.15 | -0.82% | 36,674.32 | +0.41% |
Key Takeaways
Positive Signals: Despite the weekly decline, HPCL maintains a solid dividend yield of approximately 3.39%, which remains attractive within the oil sector. The surge in delivery volumes on 19 Feb indicates active participation by long-term investors, suggesting confidence in the company’s fundamentals. Additionally, the recent upgrade by MarketsMOJO to a 'Buy' rating with a Mojo Score of 74.0 reflects a favourable medium-term outlook.
Cautionary Signals: The sharp intraday drop on 19 Feb and the continued price weakness on 20 Feb highlight immediate selling pressure and a break in the short-term uptrend. The stock’s position below all key moving averages signals technical weakness, which may deter momentum traders. Furthermore, the significant rise in open interest amid falling prices suggests increased short interest or hedging activity, pointing to potential volatility or further downside risk in the near term.
Conclusion
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. experienced a challenging week marked by a 4.25% decline in its stock price, underperforming the Sensex’s 0.39% gain. The initial gains early in the week gave way to sharp selling pressure on 19 Feb, with the stock hitting an intraday low of Rs.431.65. The following day’s surge in derivatives open interest amid bearish price action further underscored market caution. While the company’s dividend yield and positive rating from MarketsMOJO provide fundamental support, the technical weakness and increased market volatility suggest a cautious near-term outlook. Investors should closely monitor price action, volume trends, and derivatives positioning to gauge the evolving sentiment around HPCL.
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