Key Events This Week
18 May: Technical downgrade triggers bearish momentum
20 May: Mixed technical signals accompany 3.27% daily gain
22 May: Significant 13.6% surge in open interest amid steady price gains
22 May: Week closes at Rs.389.70 (+6.42%) outperforming Sensex
18 May: Bearish Momentum Emerges on Technical Downgrade
HPCL opened the week under pressure, closing at Rs.359.20 on 18 May 2026, down 1.91% from the previous close. This decline coincided with a technical downgrade that shifted the stock’s momentum from mildly bearish to bearish. The downgrade reflected a drop in the Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold as of early March, signalling increased caution among market participants. The stock’s intraday volatility was notable, with a range between Rs.363.20 and Rs.376.50, but the downward bias prevailed.
Technical indicators painted a mixed picture: while the weekly MACD remained mildly bullish, the monthly MACD and Bollinger Bands suggested longer-term weakness. Daily moving averages turned bearish, reinforcing the negative near-term trend. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex, which fell 0.35% that day, highlighted sectoral and stock-specific headwinds.
20 May: Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Signals and Price Recovery
Two days later, HPCL staged a strong recovery, gaining 3.27% to close at Rs.370.95. This rebound was accompanied by a complex interplay of technical signals. The weekly MACD turned mildly bullish, and the weekly RSI indicated strengthening buying interest, suggesting short-term momentum was improving. However, monthly indicators remained cautious, with the monthly MACD and Bollinger Bands still bearish, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the broader trend.
Despite the positive price action, daily moving averages remained mildly bearish, indicating that the stock had yet to decisively break out of its short-term downtrend. The Dow Theory assessments on weekly and monthly timeframes continued to signal mild bearishness, underscoring the need for confirmation of a sustained uptrend. HPCL’s Mojo Score of 58.0 and Hold rating reflected this balanced outlook.
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22 May: Surge in Open Interest Signals Renewed Market Activity
The final trading day of the week saw HPCL close at Rs.389.70, up 0.22% on the day and marking a cumulative weekly gain of 6.42%. Notably, the derivatives segment experienced a significant 13.6% increase in open interest, rising to 41,176 contracts from 36,241 the previous day. This surge was supported by a robust volume of 25,438 contracts, indicating fresh capital inflows rather than mere position rollovers.
The futures segment accounted for approximately ₹94,853 lakhs in value, while the options segment’s notional value stood at ₹10,781.5 crores, culminating in a combined derivatives turnover of ₹96,423 lakhs. This heightened activity reflects growing trader interest and bullish positioning despite the stock’s Hold rating and moderate Mojo Score.
Price-wise, HPCL maintained gains above its 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages, signalling short- to medium-term bullish momentum. However, it remained below the 100-day and 200-day averages, indicating that longer-term trends have yet to confirm a full recovery. Delivery volumes declined by 18.91% compared to the five-day average, suggesting that while traders are active in derivatives, long-term share accumulation has moderated.
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Daily Price Performance vs Sensex
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Rs.359.20 | -1.91% | 35,114.86 | -0.35% |
| 2026-05-19 | Rs.370.95 | +3.27% | 35,201.48 | +0.25% |
| 2026-05-20 | Rs.382.65 | +3.15% | 35,299.20 | +0.28% |
| 2026-05-21 | Rs.388.85 | +1.62% | 35,340.31 | +0.12% |
| 2026-05-22 | Rs.389.70 | +0.22% | 35,413.94 | +0.21% |
Key Takeaways
Positive Signals: HPCL’s 6.42% weekly gain notably outpaced the Sensex’s 0.50% rise, reflecting strong short-term buying interest. The surge in derivatives open interest by 13.6% on 22 May indicates renewed trader confidence and fresh capital inflows. Price action above key short-term moving averages supports a cautiously optimistic momentum in the near term.
Cautionary Signals: Despite recent gains, monthly technical indicators remain bearish or mildly bearish, suggesting that longer-term trends have yet to confirm a sustained uptrend. The decline in delivery volumes by nearly 19% signals moderated accumulation by long-term investors, which may limit the durability of the rally. The Hold rating and Mojo Score of 58.0 reflect a balanced view amid sectoral uncertainties.
Sector Context: HPCL’s technical and price movements are influenced by broader oil sector dynamics, including fluctuating crude prices and regulatory factors. The mixed technical signals mirror the sector’s volatility and the challenges faced by oil refiners in the current environment.
Conclusion
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. demonstrated a resilient performance during the week, recovering from early bearish momentum to close with a solid 6.42% gain. The stock’s technical landscape remains complex, with short-term indicators showing improvement while longer-term signals counsel caution. The significant rise in derivatives open interest underscores heightened market activity and trader interest, though the decline in delivery volumes suggests a divergence between speculative and long-term investor behaviour.
Overall, HPCL’s weekly performance highlights a transitional phase marked by cautious optimism amid sectoral headwinds. Investors should continue to monitor technical indicators and market positioning closely, balancing the stock’s strong short-term momentum against the prevailing uncertainties in the oil sector and broader market environment.
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