Hindustan Unilever Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Market Signals

Technical Trend Overview and Moving Averages

HUL’s technical trend has transitioned from a bearish stance to a mildly bearish one, reflecting a tentative improvement but still signalling caution. The daily moving averages, a key gauge of short-term momentum, remain mildly bearish, indicating that the stock price is struggling to sustain upward momentum above its average trading levels. This suggests that while there is some buying interest, it is not yet strong enough to confirm a sustained uptrend.

The stock’s daily price range on 1 February 2026 was between ₹2,335.35 and ₹2,382.60, closing near the upper end, which may hint at short-term buying pressure. However, the 52-week high of ₹2,779.70 remains significantly above the current price, underscoring the stock’s distance from its peak levels and the potential for volatility.

MACD and Momentum Oscillators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD is mildly bullish, suggesting some positive momentum building over the medium term. Conversely, the monthly MACD remains bearish, indicating that the longer-term trend has yet to confirm a reversal. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights the stock’s current indecision and the need for investors to monitor momentum closely.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures overbought or oversold conditions, shows no clear signal on both weekly and monthly charts. This neutrality implies that the stock is neither overextended to the upside nor oversold, reinforcing the notion of a consolidation phase rather than a decisive trend.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands, which measure price volatility and potential breakout points, indicate bearish conditions on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly chart. The weekly bearish signal suggests that the stock price is trading near the lower band, often interpreted as a sign of downward pressure or increased volatility. The mildly bearish monthly reading points to a cautious outlook over the longer term, with the stock yet to establish a firm base for a sustained rally.

KST, Dow Theory, and On-Balance Volume Analysis

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which aggregates multiple rate-of-change calculations to identify momentum shifts, shows bearish signals on the weekly chart but mildly bullish on the monthly chart. This split suggests that while short-term momentum is weakening, there may be a nascent longer-term recovery underway.

Dow Theory readings add further nuance: weekly data is mildly bullish, indicating some optimism in price action over recent weeks, but the monthly trend shows no clear direction. This lack of a definitive monthly trend signals that investors should remain cautious and watch for confirmation of a sustained move.

On-Balance Volume (OBV), a volume-based indicator that helps confirm price trends, is mildly bearish on the weekly scale and shows no trend on the monthly scale. The weekly bearish OBV suggests that volume is not supporting recent price gains, which could limit the sustainability of any upward moves.

Comparative Performance Against Sensex

HUL’s recent returns relative to the Sensex reveal a mixed performance. Over the past week, the stock declined by 1.59% while the Sensex gained 0.90%, indicating short-term underperformance. However, over the past month, HUL outperformed with a 3.65% gain against the Sensex’s 2.84% decline. Year-to-date, HUL has risen 2.52% while the Sensex fell 3.46%, suggesting resilience amid broader market weakness.

Longer-term returns tell a more challenging story. Over one year, HUL’s stock declined 1.57% while the Sensex rose 7.18%. Over three years, HUL’s cumulative return was -7.69% compared to the Sensex’s robust 38.27%. Even over five years, HUL’s 4.87% gain lags the Sensex’s 77.74% surge. However, over a decade, HUL has delivered a strong 190.57% return, though still trailing the Sensex’s 230.79% gain. These figures highlight the stock’s relative underperformance against the benchmark in recent years despite solid long-term growth.

Mojo Score and Grade Implications

MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system assigns HUL a Mojo Score of 42.0, categorising it as a Sell with a recent downgrade from Hold on 3 December 2025. The Market Cap Grade is 1, reflecting its large-cap status but signalling limited upside potential under current conditions. This downgrade aligns with the mixed technical signals and relative underperformance, suggesting investors should exercise caution and consider alternative opportunities.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

Hindustan Unilever Ltd’s current technical landscape is characterised by a cautious shift from bearish to mildly bearish momentum, with several indicators offering conflicting signals. The weekly MACD and Dow Theory readings provide some optimism for a medium-term recovery, but monthly indicators and volume trends temper enthusiasm. The stock’s inability to outperform the Sensex consistently over the past year and three years further complicates the outlook.

For investors, this means that while HUL remains a dominant FMCG player with strong brand equity, the technical signals suggest limited near-term upside and potential volatility. The downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO reflects these concerns, urging investors to consider risk management strategies and explore alternative investments with stronger momentum profiles.

Monitoring key technical levels, such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, alongside momentum oscillators like MACD and RSI, will be crucial in assessing whether HUL can regain bullish momentum. Additionally, watching volume trends and broader market conditions will help determine if the stock can break out of its current consolidation phase.

Conclusion

In summary, Hindustan Unilever Ltd’s technical parameters reveal a stock in transition, with mixed signals that warrant a cautious approach. The downgrade in Mojo Grade to Sell and the current mildly bearish trend suggest that investors should remain vigilant and consider diversification. While the company’s long-term fundamentals remain strong, the technical momentum does not currently favour aggressive accumulation.

Investors seeking growth opportunities may find better prospects by evaluating stocks with clearer momentum and trend confirmation, especially in sectors or market caps demonstrating stronger technical signals.

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