Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Downturn

Price Movement and Market Context

IRCTC’s current market price stands at ₹682.60, down 2.33% from the previous close of ₹698.90 on 31 Dec 2025. The stock traded within a range of ₹678.55 to ₹697.75 during the day, remaining closer to its 52-week low of ₹655.70 than its high of ₹838.35. This price contraction reflects a weakening momentum in the tour and travel related services sector, where IRCTC operates.

Comparatively, the Sensex has shown resilience with a year-to-date return of 8.36%, while IRCTC has declined by 13.23% over the same period. Over the last one year, the stock has underperformed the benchmark by a significant margin, delivering a negative return of 11.33% against Sensex’s 8.21% gain. However, the longer-term performance over five years remains robust, with IRCTC appreciating 137.99%, outperforming the Sensex’s 77.34% gain.

Technical Trend Shift: From Mildly Bearish to Bearish

The technical trend for IRCTC has deteriorated from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling increased selling pressure. This shift is corroborated by multiple technical indicators across different time frames.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Both weekly and monthly MACD indicators remain bearish, indicating that the stock’s short-term momentum is weaker than its longer-term trend. The MACD line continues to stay below the signal line, suggesting that downward momentum is likely to persist.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI readings on weekly and monthly charts currently show no clear signal, hovering in a neutral zone. This implies that while the stock is not yet oversold, it lacks the bullish momentum needed to reverse the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands: The weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands are signalling bearishness, with the price trending towards the lower band. This suggests increased volatility and a potential continuation of the downward price movement.

Moving Averages and Momentum Oscillators

The daily moving averages for IRCTC are firmly bearish, with the stock price trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This technical configuration often signals a sustained downtrend and discourages short-term buying interest.

The KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator, a momentum oscillator, is bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, reinforcing the negative outlook. This suggests that the stock’s momentum is weakening across multiple time horizons.

Dow Theory and On-Balance Volume (OBV): Dow Theory analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly chart but indicates a mildly bearish stance on the monthly chart. Similarly, OBV readings do not show a definitive trend weekly but are mildly bearish monthly, implying that volume flow is not supporting any price recovery at present.

Mojo Score and Grade Upgrade

IRCTC’s Mojo Score currently stands at 50.0, reflecting a neutral stance. The company’s Mojo Grade was upgraded from Sell to Hold on 26 Dec 2025, signalling a slight improvement in outlook. However, the Market Cap Grade remains low at 2, indicating limited market capitalisation strength relative to peers.

While the upgrade to Hold suggests some stabilisation, the technical indicators caution investors to remain vigilant given the prevailing bearish momentum.

Investment Implications and Outlook

Investors should weigh the mixed signals carefully. The stock’s long-term fundamentals remain intact, as evidenced by its strong five-year return of 137.99%, outperforming the Sensex. However, the recent technical deterioration and underperformance over the past year and year-to-date period highlight near-term challenges.

Given the bearish technical trend, cautious investors may prefer to wait for confirmation of a trend reversal before initiating new positions. Those already holding the stock might consider tightening stop-loss levels or reducing exposure to mitigate downside risk.

Sector and Industry Context

IRCTC operates within the Tour and Travel Related Services sector, which has faced headwinds due to fluctuating travel demand and macroeconomic uncertainties. The sector’s cyclical nature means that companies like IRCTC are sensitive to shifts in consumer sentiment and discretionary spending.

While the broader market, represented by the Sensex, has shown resilience, IRCTC’s technical weakness may reflect sector-specific challenges such as regulatory changes, competition, or operational constraints. Investors should monitor sector trends closely alongside company-specific developments.

Summary of Technical Signals

To recap, the key technical indicators for IRCTC are as follows:

• MACD: Bearish on weekly and monthly charts


• RSI: Neutral, no clear signal


• Bollinger Bands: Bearish, price near lower band


• Moving Averages: Daily bearish, price below 50-day and 200-day averages


• KST: Bearish on weekly and monthly charts


• Dow Theory: No trend weekly, mildly bearish monthly


• OBV: No trend weekly, mildly bearish monthly

These signals collectively point to a prevailing bearish momentum, suggesting that the stock may face further downward pressure in the near term unless a significant catalyst emerges.

Conclusion

Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation Ltd’s recent technical deterioration underscores the importance of cautious positioning. Despite a modest upgrade in its Mojo Grade to Hold, the stock’s price momentum and technical indicators remain unfavourable. Investors should consider the broader market context, sector dynamics, and the company’s long-term fundamentals before making investment decisions.

Monitoring key technical levels and waiting for signs of a sustained reversal could help mitigate risk in this volatile environment.

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