Interglobe Aviation Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Amid Mixed Technical Signals

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 19 Feb 2026, Interglobe Aviation's open interest (OI) in derivatives rose sharply from 98,510 contracts to 114,644, an increase of 16,134 contracts. This notable expansion in OI was accompanied by a futures volume of 87,637 contracts, underscoring robust trading activity. The combined futures and options value stood at approximately ₹30,264 crores, with futures alone accounting for ₹2,991.86 crores and options contributing a staggering ₹34,201.72 crores in notional value.

This surge in OI and volume suggests that market participants are actively repositioning, possibly anticipating a significant price movement. However, the underlying stock price remains at ₹4,864, showing only a modest 0.63% gain on the day, in line with the airline sector's 0.54% rise and slightly above the Sensex's 0.62% gain.

Technical Indicators and Market Positioning

Technically, Interglobe Aviation is trading below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a prevailing bearish trend. This technical weakness contrasts with the rising open interest, which often signals fresh capital entering the market, either to establish new positions or to hedge existing ones.

Investor participation has notably increased, with delivery volumes surging to 9.7 lakh shares on 19 Feb, a 291.3% rise compared to the five-day average. This spike in delivery volume highlights genuine buying or selling interest beyond intraday speculative trades, suggesting that institutional or retail investors are actively adjusting their holdings.

Directional Bets and Market Sentiment

The increase in open interest alongside rising volumes often points to fresh directional bets. However, the mixed signals from price action and technical indicators suggest a divergence in market views. Some traders may be positioning for a rebound, given the airline sector's modest gains and improving travel demand post-pandemic. Others appear cautious, reflected in the stock's failure to break above key moving averages and the downgrade in its Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell on 3 Dec 2025.

Interglobe Aviation's current Mojo Score of 33.0 and a Market Cap Grade of 1 reinforce the cautious stance. The downgrade indicates deteriorating fundamentals or valuation concerns, which may be tempering bullish enthusiasm despite the increased derivatives activity.

Liquidity and Trading Implications

The stock's liquidity remains adequate, with a five-day average traded value supporting trade sizes up to ₹5.41 crores. This liquidity facilitates active participation by institutional investors and large traders, enabling them to execute sizeable positions without significant market impact.

Given the heightened open interest and volume, traders should closely monitor the evolution of price relative to moving averages and delivery volumes. A sustained break above the 50-day or 100-day moving averages could signal a shift in trend and validate bullish bets. Conversely, failure to hold current levels may lead to further downside, aligning with the current Sell rating.

Broader Sector and Market Context

The airline sector has been gradually recovering, supported by easing travel restrictions and rising passenger volumes. Interglobe Aviation, as a market leader with a large-cap valuation of ₹1,87,542 crores, remains a key beneficiary of this trend. However, the sector's volatility, fuel price fluctuations, and geopolitical uncertainties continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

Interglobe's performance today, with a 0.74% one-day return, slightly outpaces the sector's 0.54% and the Sensex's 0.62%, indicating relative resilience. Yet, the technical weakness and the downgrade in rating suggest that investors should exercise caution and consider risk management strategies.

Conclusion: Navigating the Open Interest Surge

The recent surge in open interest for Interglobe Aviation's derivatives signals increased market engagement and potential repositioning ahead of anticipated price moves. While rising delivery volumes and futures activity point to genuine investor interest, the stock's technical underperformance and downgrade to a Sell rating highlight underlying concerns.

Investors and traders should closely monitor price action relative to key moving averages and sector trends to gauge the sustainability of current positioning. The mixed signals warrant a balanced approach, favouring risk-adjusted strategies until clearer directional confirmation emerges.

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