Is HMT technically bullish or bearish?

Overview of Current Price Action and Trend

As of 28 Nov 2025, HMT’s technical trend shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling a deterioration in market sentiment. The stock closed at ₹53.70, slightly above the previous close of ₹52.55, with intraday highs touching ₹53.90 and lows at ₹51.50. This modest price gain of 6.3% over the past week contrasts with the broader Sensex’s 0.56% rise, indicating some short-term relative strength.

However, the stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹79.50 and only modestly above its 52-week low of ₹45.60, reflecting a wide trading range and significant volatility over the past year. The year-to-date return of -14.4% starkly contrasts with the Sensex’s positive 9.7%, underscoring HMT’s underperformance in the current market cycle.

Technical Indicators Paint a Bearish Picture

A comprehensive review of HMT’s technical indicators reveals a predominance of bearish signals across multiple timeframes and methodologies. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), a widely used momentum indicator, is bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly chart. This suggests that the stock’s momentum is weakening in the short term, with some tentative signs of stabilisation over longer periods.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures overbought or oversold conditions, currently shows no clear signal on either weekly or monthly charts. This neutrality indicates that the stock is neither in an extreme buying nor selling zone, but this lack of bullish momentum does not offset the other bearish indicators.

Bollinger Bands, which track price volatility and potential reversal points, are mildly bearish on the weekly timeframe and bearish on the monthly timeframe. This implies that the stock price is trending towards the lower band, often a sign of downward pressure and potential continuation of the bearish trend.

Moving Averages and Trend Confirmation

Daily moving averages for HMT are firmly bearish, signalling that the stock’s short-term price action is below key average price levels. This is a critical technical warning, as moving averages often act as dynamic support or resistance. The bearish crossover or sustained trading below these averages typically indicates a continuation of downward momentum.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which aggregates multiple rate-of-change calculations, is bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly chart. This further confirms the weakening momentum and suggests that the stock may continue to face selling pressure in the near term.

Additional Technical Perspectives: Dow Theory and OBV

Dow Theory analysis, which focuses on the confirmation of trends through market highs and lows, is mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts. This suggests that while the stock has not entered a full-fledged downtrend, the prevailing pattern is more negative than positive.

On-Balance Volume (OBV), a volume-based indicator that helps confirm price trends, is mildly bearish on weekly and monthly timeframes. This indicates that volume flows are not supporting a bullish reversal, and selling pressure may be outweighing buying interest.

Relative Performance and Long-Term Returns

While HMT’s short-term technical outlook is bearish, its longer-term performance offers a more nuanced picture. Over the past three and five years, the stock has delivered cumulative returns of approximately 53.9% and 266.3% respectively, outperforming the Sensex’s 37.1% and 94.1% returns over the same periods. This suggests that despite recent weakness, HMT has demonstrated resilience and growth potential over extended horizons.

However, the stock’s 10-year return of just 0.66% pales in comparison to the Sensex’s robust 228.0%, indicating that HMT has struggled to keep pace with broader market gains over the very long term. This mixed performance history may reflect cyclical challenges in the industrial manufacturing sector or company-specific factors impacting growth.

Industry Context and Market Sentiment

HMT operates within the industrial manufacturing sector, a space often sensitive to economic cycles, capital expenditure trends, and global supply chain dynamics. Current macroeconomic conditions, including inflationary pressures and fluctuating demand, may be contributing to the cautious technical stance observed in the stock.

Investor sentiment towards industrial manufacturing stocks has been mixed, with some companies benefiting from infrastructure spending and others facing margin pressures. HMT’s technical indicators suggest that it is currently on the weaker side of this spectrum, warranting careful monitoring by market participants.

Investor Takeaway: Caution Advised Amid Bearish Technicals

Given the predominance of bearish signals across multiple technical indicators and timeframes, investors should approach HMT with caution. The recent weekly price gain may offer some short-term relief, but the broader trend remains negative, with key momentum and volume indicators pointing to potential further downside.

Long-term investors might consider the stock’s historical outperformance over three and five years as a positive sign, but the lacklustre 10-year returns and current technical weakness suggest that patience and rigorous risk management are essential.

For traders, the bearish moving averages and MACD signals imply that shorting opportunities or defensive positioning could be appropriate until a clear reversal pattern emerges. Monitoring volume trends and waiting for confirmation from momentum indicators such as RSI or KST may help identify a more favourable entry point.

In summary, HMT’s technical landscape is currently bearish, reflecting underlying challenges in price momentum and market sentiment. Investors should weigh these factors carefully against their investment horizon and risk tolerance before making decisions.

Get 2 full years of MojoOne Premium for only Rs. 12,999. Subscribe for 1 year and we'll add another year FREE. Offer valid for a limited time. Start Saving Now →