Is Kalyan Jewellers technically bullish or bearish?

Technical Trend Shift and Moving Averages

As of 03 Dec 2025, Kalyan Jewellers’ technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish. This change reflects growing downside pressure on the stock, confirmed by daily moving averages which remain firmly bearish. The moving averages, often regarded as a reliable gauge of trend direction, indicate that the stock price is trading below key average levels, signalling a lack of upward momentum in the short term.

MACD and KST Oscillators: Mixed Signals

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD is mildly bullish, suggesting some short-term positive momentum. However, the monthly MACD remains mildly bearish, indicating that the longer-term trend is still under pressure. Similarly, the Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator aligns with this mixed view, showing mild bullishness weekly but bearishness monthly. These oscillators highlight a divergence between short-term optimism and longer-term caution.

RSI and Bollinger Bands: Bearish Bias

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently offers no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory without indicating overbought or oversold conditions. This neutrality suggests the stock is not yet at an extreme valuation level from a momentum perspective. However, Bollinger Bands tell a different story: both weekly and monthly readings are bearish, implying that price volatility is skewed towards the downside and the stock is likely trading near the lower band, a technical sign of weakness.

Volume and Dow Theory Perspectives

On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis on a weekly timeframe is mildly bearish, indicating that volume trends are not supporting price advances. Monthly OBV shows no clear trend, which may reflect indecision among investors over the longer term. Dow Theory analysis adds to the cautious stance, with weekly signals mildly bearish and no discernible trend on the monthly scale. This combination suggests that the stock has yet to establish a convincing recovery or breakout pattern.

Price Performance and Market Context

Kalyan Jewellers’ current price stands at ₹491.95, down from the previous close of ₹501.30. The stock has traded within a daily range of ₹487.10 to ₹500.35, remaining well below its 52-week high of ₹794.60 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹399.20. This wide trading range over the past year reflects significant volatility and a lack of sustained upward momentum.

When compared to the broader market, represented by the Sensex, Kalyan Jewellers has underperformed markedly. Over the past week, the stock declined by 1.11%, while the Sensex fell by 0.59%. The one-month performance shows a sharper contrast, with the stock down 4.59% against a 1.34% gain in the Sensex. Year-to-date and one-year returns are particularly stark, with Kalyan Jewellers down approximately 35.8% and 32.3% respectively, while the Sensex has posted gains of 8.9% and 5.3% over the same periods. This underperformance highlights the stock’s vulnerability amid broader market strength.

Long-Term Returns and Investor Implications

Despite recent weakness, Kalyan Jewellers has delivered impressive returns over a three-year horizon, with a cumulative gain of approximately 348.5%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 35.4% over the same period. This suggests that the company has demonstrated strong growth potential historically, though recent trends have been less favourable.

Investors should note that the absence of data for five- and ten-year returns for the stock limits a comprehensive long-term comparison. However, the available data indicates that the stock’s recent underperformance is a deviation from its longer-term growth trajectory.

Technical Summary and Outlook

Overall, the technical indicators for Kalyan Jewellers paint a predominantly bearish picture at present. The shift to a bearish technical trend, combined with bearish moving averages and Bollinger Bands, suggests that the stock is facing downward pressure. Mixed signals from oscillators such as MACD and KST indicate some short-term bullishness, but these are outweighed by the longer-term bearish momentum.

Given the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex and the lack of strong volume support, investors should approach Kalyan Jewellers with caution. The current technical setup does not favour aggressive buying, and a wait-and-watch approach may be prudent until clearer signs of trend reversal emerge.

Key Considerations for Investors

Investors looking at Kalyan Jewellers should consider the following factors before making decisions:

• The stock’s current technical trend is bearish, signalling potential further downside.


• Short-term oscillators show mild bullishness, which could indicate temporary relief rallies but not a sustained uptrend.


• Price remains significantly below the 52-week high, reflecting a loss of momentum over the past year.


• Volume indicators and Dow Theory signals do not support a strong bullish case at this time.


• Long-term historical returns have been strong, but recent performance has lagged the broader market.

Given these factors, investors may prefer to monitor the stock for confirmation of a trend reversal or improved technical signals before committing fresh capital. Alternatively, those with a higher risk tolerance might consider tactical trades aligned with short-term bullish signals, but with strict risk management in place.

Conclusion

Kalyan Jewellers currently exhibits a technically bearish stance, with the majority of key indicators pointing to downward momentum. While some weekly oscillators suggest mild bullishness, these are insufficient to offset the broader bearish trend confirmed by moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and volume analysis. The stock’s recent underperformance relative to the Sensex further underscores the cautious outlook.

Investors should weigh these technical signals alongside fundamental factors and market conditions. Until a clear technical turnaround is evident, a conservative approach is advisable for those considering exposure to Kalyan Jewellers.

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