Is SEPC technically bullish or bearish?

Overview of SEPC’s Recent Price Movement

SEPC’s current market price stands at ₹10.04, having declined from the previous close of ₹10.23. The stock’s intraday range today has been relatively narrow, fluctuating between ₹9.98 and ₹10.55. Notably, the stock is trading close to its 52-week low of ₹9.55, a stark contrast to its 52-week high of ₹25.83, underscoring significant depreciation over the past year.

This price trajectory is reflective of the broader challenges faced by the company, as it has underperformed the benchmark Sensex across multiple time horizons. For instance, SEPC’s year-to-date return is a negative 52.7%, compared to the Sensex’s positive 9.7%. Over the last year, the stock has declined by 56.8%, while the Sensex has gained 8.4%. Even on a shorter-term basis, the stock has lost 10.6% in the past month, whereas the Sensex has advanced by 1.3%.

Technical Indicators Paint a Bearish Picture

The technical trend for SEPC recently shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish as of 28 November 2025. This change signals increasing downside momentum and a lack of bullish conviction among traders and investors.

Key momentum indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating sustained selling pressure. Similarly, Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly timeframes suggest the stock is trading near the lower band, often a sign of weakness and potential continuation of the downtrend.

Daily moving averages also reinforce this bearish stance, with the stock price consistently below key averages, signalling a lack of upward momentum in the short term.

Mixed Signals from Oscillators and Volume-Based Indicators

While most indicators lean bearish, some oscillators provide a nuanced view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on a monthly basis is bullish, suggesting that the stock may be oversold and could be due for a corrective bounce in the medium term. However, the weekly RSI offers no clear signal, reflecting indecision in the near term.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is mildly bullish on a weekly basis but bearish monthly, indicating short-term attempts at recovery that have yet to gain sustained traction.

Volume-based indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) show a mildly bearish trend weekly but a bullish trend monthly, hinting at some accumulation by investors over the longer term despite recent selling pressure.

Dow Theory and Broader Market Context

According to Dow Theory, SEPC’s weekly and monthly trends are mildly bearish, reinforcing the view that the stock is in a downtrend phase. This theory, which emphasises the confirmation of trends across different market indices, suggests that SEPC’s current technical posture is not supportive of a sustained rally.

Comparing SEPC’s returns to the Sensex over longer periods reveals a mixed picture. While the stock has delivered impressive gains over five years (200.5% versus Sensex’s 94.1%), its recent decade-long performance is deeply negative (-66.9%) compared to the Sensex’s robust 228.0% gain. This disparity highlights the cyclical and volatile nature of SEPC’s stock performance within the construction sector.

Implications for Investors and Traders

Given the predominance of bearish technical signals, investors should exercise caution when considering SEPC for fresh positions. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week low and the negative momentum across multiple indicators suggest that downside risks remain elevated in the near term.

However, the presence of some bullish monthly signals, such as the RSI and OBV, indicates that a medium-term recovery could be possible if broader market conditions improve or if company-specific catalysts emerge. Traders with a higher risk tolerance might look for short-term oversold bounces, but these should be approached with strict risk management.

Sectoral and Market Considerations

The construction industry, to which SEPC belongs, is often sensitive to economic cycles, interest rates, and government infrastructure spending. Current macroeconomic conditions and sectoral headwinds may be contributing to the stock’s weak technical profile.

Investors should monitor sectoral trends and policy developments closely, as any positive shifts could provide a catalyst for SEPC’s technical indicators to improve. Conversely, continued economic uncertainty or tightening credit conditions could exacerbate the bearish momentum.

Conclusion: Predominantly Bearish Technical Outlook

In summary, SEPC’s technical analysis reveals a predominantly bearish outlook, with multiple indicators across weekly, monthly, and daily timeframes signalling weakness. The recent shift from mildly bearish to bearish trend status underscores the growing downside risk.

While some oscillators and volume indicators hint at potential medium-term support, these are insufficient to offset the broader negative technical signals. Investors and traders should remain cautious and consider alternative opportunities unless a clear technical reversal emerges.

Get 2 full years of MojoOne Premium for only Rs. 12,999. Subscribe for 1 year and we'll add another year FREE. Offer valid for a limited time. Start Saving Now →