ITC Ltd Gains 1.19%: 5 Key Factors Driving the Week’s Volatility

2 February: New 52-Week Low Amid Institutional Selling

ITC Ltd’s share price plunged to a fresh 52-week low of Rs.303 on 2 February 2026, marking a significant downturn amid sustained selling pressure. The stock closed at Rs.314.80, down 2.30% on the day, underperforming the Sensex which declined 1.03%. Despite heavy trading volumes exceeding 2.9 crore shares and a turnover of nearly ₹894 crore, the stock struggled to find support, trading below all key moving averages. Institutional investors appeared to reduce exposure, reflected in a downgrade by MarketsMOJO to a 'Sell' rating in late December 2025. The technical weakness and delivery volume surge suggested a bearish sentiment prevailing early in the week.

3 February: Modest Recovery Despite Broader Market Rally

On 3 February, ITC’s shares edged up 0.60% to close at Rs.316.70, a modest recovery contrasting with the Sensex’s robust 2.63% gain. The stock’s limited upside amid a strong market rally indicated lingering caution among investors. Trading volumes declined to 1.89 million shares, reflecting reduced participation. The stock remained below its longer-term moving averages, signalling that the downtrend was not yet reversed. This day’s price action suggested tentative buying interest but no decisive shift in momentum.

4 February: MarketsMOJO Upgrades ITC to Hold on Valuation Improvement

MarketsMOJO upgraded ITC Ltd’s mojo grade from 'Sell' to 'Hold' on 4 February 2026, citing improved valuation metrics and steady financial fundamentals. The stock’s price-to-earnings ratio stood at 16.26, with an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 13.94, signalling a more attractive entry point. Despite flat quarterly results, ITC’s return on equity of 33.44% and return on capital employed of 46.73% underscored operational strength. The upgrade reflected a balanced view acknowledging valuation appeal amid ongoing price underperformance. On the same day, ITC’s share price declined 0.90% to Rs.313.85, indicating that the market was still digesting the rating change.

5 February: Continued Price Pressure Ahead of Rebound

ITC’s shares fell further on 5 February, closing at Rs.310.25, down 1.15%. The stock remained below key moving averages, reflecting persistent technical resistance. Trading volumes were moderate at 1.45 million shares, with delivery volumes declining, suggesting reduced conviction among investors. The price weakness came despite the mojo upgrade, highlighting the cautious stance of market participants. The broader Sensex also slipped 0.53%, indicating a generally subdued market environment.

6 February: Strong Rebound with Volume Surge and Mojo Upgrade

ITC Ltd. staged a notable recovery on 6 February 2026, surging 5.09% to close at Rs.326.05, its highest level of the week. The stock reached an intraday high of Rs.321.15, outperforming the FMCG sector’s 3.19% gain and the Sensex’s marginal 0.10% rise. Trading volumes soared to nearly 9.73 million shares, with a traded value exceeding ₹636 crore, reflecting renewed institutional interest. The mojo score upgrade to 51.0 and the shift to a 'Hold' rating supported the positive sentiment. Despite this short-term strength, ITC remained below its 20-day and longer moving averages, indicating that medium-term resistance persists. The volume-price relationship suggested cautious accumulation, with buyers stepping in at lower price levels.

Daily Price Comparison: ITC Ltd vs Sensex (2-6 Feb 2026)

Key Takeaways

Positive Signals: ITC’s mojo upgrade to 'Hold' on 4 February reflects improved valuation metrics, including a PE ratio of 16.26 and a PEG ratio of 0.73, suggesting undervaluation relative to earnings growth. The company’s strong return on equity (33.44%) and return on capital employed (46.73%) underpin its financial resilience. The 5.09% price surge on 6 February accompanied by exceptional volume indicates renewed institutional interest and potential base-building.

Cautionary Notes: The stock’s early-week decline to a 52-week low of Rs.303 highlights ongoing technical weakness and selling pressure. ITC remains below its 20-day and longer moving averages, signalling resistance ahead. Delivery volumes fluctuated, with a notable dip on 5 February, suggesting mixed investor conviction. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex and FMCG sector over the past year and quarter reflects broader challenges in the market and sector.

Conclusion

ITC Ltd’s week was characterised by volatility, with a sharp early decline followed by a strong rebound supported by valuation upgrades and increased trading activity. While the stock’s fundamentals remain robust, reflected in strong profitability and an attractive dividend yield of 4.19%, technical resistance and recent price underperformance temper enthusiasm. The mojo rating upgrade to 'Hold' signals a cautious but more optimistic outlook, suggesting that ITC may be stabilising after a period of weakness. Investors should monitor price action around key moving averages and volume trends to assess whether this recovery can be sustained amid sectoral and market headwinds.

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