ITC Ltd. Sees High-Value Trading Amidst Prolonged Downtrend and Institutional Caution

Robust Trading Volumes Reflect Market Attention

On 9 January 2026, ITC Ltd. recorded a total traded volume of 43,72,340 shares, translating into a substantial traded value of approximately ₹148.55 crores. This places ITC among the top equity stocks by value turnover on the day, underscoring significant market interest. The stock opened at ₹340.90, closely aligned with its previous close, and fluctuated within a narrow intraday range of ₹338.70 to ₹341.00. The last traded price stood at ₹339.65 as of 09:44:47 IST, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.26% on the day.

Technical Weakness Persists Amidst Sectoral Trends

ITC’s price action continues to signal weakness, with the stock trading below all key moving averages — 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — indicating a sustained bearish trend. The stock is currently hovering just 0.47% above its 52-week low of ₹337.75, a level that has not been breached recently but remains a critical support zone. Over the past seven consecutive trading sessions, ITC has recorded a cumulative decline of 15.79%, a stark contrast to the FMCG sector’s more moderate performance. The sector itself posted a 0.26% decline on the day, while the broader Sensex index fell by 0.19%, placing ITC’s underperformance in sharper relief.

Institutional Participation and Liquidity Dynamics

Investor participation appears to be waning, with delivery volumes on 8 January falling sharply by 60.99% compared to the five-day average, registering at 2.42 crore shares. This decline in delivery volume suggests reduced conviction among long-term holders or institutional investors, potentially signalling profit booking or cautious repositioning. Despite this, liquidity remains adequate for sizeable trades, with the stock’s average traded value supporting transaction sizes up to ₹45.16 crores based on 2% of the five-day average traded value. This liquidity profile ensures that ITC remains a viable option for both retail and institutional traders seeking exposure to the FMCG sector.

Mojo Score Downgrade Reflects Deteriorating Outlook

MarketsMOJO’s latest assessment downgraded ITC Ltd.’s Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell on 29 December 2025, reflecting a deteriorating fundamental and technical outlook. The stock’s Mojo Score currently stands at 48.0, signalling weak momentum and cautionary signals for investors. The downgrade is underpinned by the company’s Market Cap Grade of 1, indicating a large-cap status but with limited near-term upside potential based on current valuations and sectoral headwinds.

Valuation and Market Capitalisation Context

ITC Ltd. commands a formidable market capitalisation of ₹4,25,358.18 crores, cementing its position as a large-cap stalwart within the FMCG sector. Despite its size and diversified business model, the stock’s recent price action suggests that investors are factoring in near-term challenges, including subdued volume growth and margin pressures. The stock’s performance relative to sector peers and the broader market indicates a cautious stance, with investors possibly awaiting clearer signs of earnings recovery or strategic initiatives to reinvigorate growth.

Comparative Sector Performance and Investor Sentiment

While the FMCG sector has shown resilience in recent months, ITC’s seven-day losing streak and underperformance relative to sector and benchmark indices highlight a divergence in investor sentiment. The stock’s decline of 15.79% over the past week contrasts with the sector’s more stable trajectory, suggesting that ITC is facing company-specific headwinds or profit-taking pressures. This divergence warrants close monitoring, especially given the stock’s liquidity and high-value trading status, which can amplify price movements in either direction.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

Given the current technical and fundamental signals, investors should approach ITC Ltd. with caution. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week low, combined with a sustained downtrend and reduced delivery volumes, suggests limited near-term upside. However, its large-cap status and liquidity profile mean it remains a key stock to watch within the FMCG sector. Investors with a higher risk tolerance might consider monitoring for potential reversal signals or value entry points, while more conservative participants may prefer to explore alternative FMCG stocks with stronger momentum or more favourable ratings.

Institutional Activity and Market Impact

Institutional investors appear to be adopting a wait-and-watch approach, as evidenced by the sharp decline in delivery volumes. This reduced participation could be a reflection of profit booking or portfolio rebalancing ahead of upcoming earnings announcements or macroeconomic developments. The high value turnover, however, indicates that the stock remains a focal point for active traders and short-term participants, which could lead to increased volatility in the near term.

Summary

ITC Ltd. continues to command significant trading interest, reflected in its high value turnover and liquidity. Nonetheless, the stock’s technical weakness, recent downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO, and falling investor participation highlight a cautious investment environment. While the FMCG sector remains broadly stable, ITC’s underperformance relative to peers suggests company-specific challenges that investors must carefully weigh. Monitoring price action around key support levels and institutional activity will be critical for assessing the stock’s medium-term trajectory.

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