JSW Energy Ltd Faces Bearish Technical Momentum Amid Mixed Market Returns

Technical Momentum and Indicator Analysis

The stock of JSW Energy Ltd (NSE: JSWENERGY) closed at ₹474.95 on 16 Feb 2026, down 0.96% from the previous close of ₹479.55. The intraday range was between ₹468.80 and ₹479.05, reflecting some volatility but an inability to sustain gains near the 52-week high of ₹578.85. The 52-week low stands at ₹419.10, indicating the stock remains closer to its upper range but is showing signs of technical fatigue.

MarketsMOJO’s recent downgrade of JSW Energy’s Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell on 20 Nov 2025, with a current Mojo Score of 30.0, reflects deteriorating technical and fundamental outlooks. The Market Cap Grade remains low at 2, signalling limited market capitalisation strength relative to peers.

Moving Averages and MACD Signal Bearishness

Daily moving averages have turned bearish, with the stock trading below key short- and medium-term averages. This suggests downward pressure on price momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator confirms this trend, showing a bearish crossover on the weekly chart and a mildly bearish stance on the monthly chart. The MACD histogram has been negative for several weeks, indicating sustained selling pressure.

RSI and Bollinger Bands: Mixed but Cautious

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently offers no clear signal, hovering near neutral levels. This suggests the stock is neither oversold nor overbought, but the lack of bullish RSI momentum adds to the cautious outlook. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts are mildly bearish, with the price trending towards the lower band, signalling increased volatility and potential downside risk.

Additional Technical Indicators Confirm Bearish Bias

The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator is bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, reinforcing the negative momentum. Dow Theory assessments show a mildly bearish trend on the weekly timeframe, while the monthly trend remains neutral, indicating some uncertainty over longer-term direction. On-Balance Volume (OBV) presents a mildly bullish signal weekly, suggesting some accumulation, but this is insufficient to offset the broader bearish technical environment.

Price Performance Relative to Sensex

JSW Energy’s price returns over various periods reveal a mixed picture when compared with the benchmark Sensex. Over the past week, the stock gained 0.35%, outperforming the Sensex’s decline of 1.14%. However, over the last month, JSW Energy declined 3.86%, underperforming the Sensex’s 1.20% drop. Year-to-date, the stock is down 1.54%, while the Sensex has fallen 3.04%, indicating relative resilience in the short term.

Longer-term returns are more favourable for JSW Energy. Over one year, the stock has risen 1.57%, lagging the Sensex’s 8.52% gain. Yet, over three, five, and ten years, JSW Energy has significantly outperformed the Sensex, delivering returns of 111.37%, 537.52%, and 658.10% respectively, compared to the Sensex’s 36.73%, 60.30%, and 259.46%. This highlights the company’s strong historical growth trajectory despite recent technical setbacks.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the power sector, JSW Energy faces sector-specific challenges including regulatory pressures, fluctuating fuel costs, and evolving demand patterns. The broader power industry has seen mixed technical signals, with some peers maintaining stronger momentum. JSW Energy’s current technical deterioration may reflect sector-wide headwinds as well as company-specific factors.

Implications for Investors

The shift to a bearish technical trend and downgrade to a Sell rating suggest investors should exercise caution. The stock’s inability to sustain levels near its 52-week high and the bearish signals from multiple technical indicators point to potential downside risk in the near term. However, the company’s strong long-term returns and mild bullish signals in volume-based indicators indicate that the fundamental business remains robust.

Conclusion: Navigating the Bearish Phase

JSW Energy Ltd’s recent technical deterioration, reflected in bearish moving averages, MACD, and KST indicators, alongside a downgrade to a Sell rating, signals a cautious outlook for investors. While short-term price momentum is weak and volatility is elevated, the company’s long-term performance and sector positioning provide some counterbalance. Investors should monitor key support levels near ₹470 and watch for any reversal signals in momentum indicators before considering fresh exposure.

Given the mixed signals from volume and trend analyses, a prudent approach would be to await clearer confirmation of trend direction or consider portfolio diversification to mitigate risk. The power sector’s evolving dynamics and JSW Energy’s valuation relative to peers will remain critical factors in shaping future price action.

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