Technical Trend Shift and Price Movement
On 20 Jan 2026, Kalyan Jewellers closed at ₹457.05, down 2.24% from the previous close of ₹467.50. The stock traded within a range of ₹446.35 to ₹471.75 during the day, remaining well below its 52-week high of ₹617.30 and closer to the 52-week low of ₹399.20. This price action underscores the prevailing bearish pressure in the market.
The technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling increased downside risk. The daily moving averages are firmly bearish, indicating that short-term price momentum is weakening. This is corroborated by the weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands, both of which are bearish, suggesting that volatility is skewed towards the downside and the stock is trading near the lower band.
MACD and Momentum Oscillators
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains bearish, confirming the downward momentum. The monthly MACD is mildly bearish, indicating that while the longer-term trend is negative, it is not yet decisively so. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings suggests that the stock may be in a transitional phase, but the dominant trend remains negative.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers a contrasting signal. The weekly RSI is bullish, implying some short-term buying interest or oversold conditions that could lead to a temporary bounce. However, the monthly RSI shows no clear signal, reflecting uncertainty in the longer-term momentum. This mixed RSI reading highlights the complexity of the current price action and the potential for short-term volatility.
Additional Technical Indicators
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is mildly bullish on a weekly basis but mildly bearish monthly, reinforcing the theme of short-term strength amid longer-term weakness. The Dow Theory assessment aligns with this, showing a mildly bearish weekly trend and no clear monthly trend, indicating that the broader market confirmation of trend direction is lacking.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis reveals no significant trend on the weekly chart but a mildly bearish stance monthly, suggesting that volume flows are not strongly supporting price advances. This volume-price divergence often precedes further price declines.
Comparative Performance Against Sensex
Examining returns relative to the benchmark Sensex reveals underperformance across recent periods. Over the past week, Kalyan Jewellers declined by 8.82%, sharply underperforming the Sensex’s modest 0.75% loss. The one-month return was -5.7% versus Sensex’s -1.98%, and year-to-date the stock is down 5.88% compared to the Sensex’s 2.32% decline. Over the last year, the stock has fallen 8.89% while the Sensex gained 8.65%, highlighting a significant relative weakness.
However, the longer-term three-year return remains robust at 281.67%, vastly outperforming the Sensex’s 36.79% gain, reflecting the company’s strong growth trajectory over the medium term despite recent setbacks.
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Mojo Score and Rating Revision
MarketsMOJO has downgraded Kalyan Jewellers from a Hold to a Sell rating as of 19 Jan 2026, reflecting the deteriorating technical and fundamental outlook. The current Mojo Score stands at 44.0, a level that signals weak momentum and caution for investors. The Market Cap Grade is 2, indicating a relatively small market capitalisation compared to larger peers, which may contribute to higher volatility and liquidity concerns.
This downgrade is consistent with the bearish technical signals and the stock’s recent underperformance relative to the broader market. Investors should be wary of further downside risks unless there is a clear reversal in key technical indicators.
Moving Averages and Daily Price Action
The daily moving averages are decisively bearish, with the stock trading below its short-term and medium-term averages. This alignment typically signals sustained selling pressure and a lack of buying interest at current levels. The failure to reclaim these averages suggests that any rallies may be short-lived and vulnerable to renewed selling.
Today’s trading range between ₹446.35 and ₹471.75 further emphasises the volatility and uncertainty. The inability to break above the intraday high near ₹471.75 indicates resistance at higher levels, while the proximity to the day’s low suggests sellers remain active.
Outlook and Investor Considerations
Given the mixed but predominantly bearish technical signals, investors should approach Kalyan Jewellers with caution. The weekly and monthly MACD and Bollinger Bands confirm a downtrend, while the weekly RSI and KST hint at possible short-term relief rallies. However, the overall trend remains negative, and the downgrade to Sell by MarketsMOJO reinforces the need for prudence.
Long-term investors may find value in the company’s strong three-year returns and underlying fundamentals, but short-term traders should be mindful of the heightened volatility and technical weakness. Monitoring key support levels near ₹446 and the 52-week low of ₹399.20 will be critical to assess if the downtrend is stabilising or accelerating.
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Summary of Technical Indicators
The technical landscape for Kalyan Jewellers is characterised by a bearish bias across multiple indicators:
- MACD: Weekly bearish, monthly mildly bearish
- RSI: Weekly bullish, monthly neutral
- Bollinger Bands: Bearish on both weekly and monthly charts
- Moving Averages: Daily bearish, price below key averages
- KST: Weekly mildly bullish, monthly mildly bearish
- Dow Theory: Weekly mildly bearish, monthly no trend
- OBV: Weekly no trend, monthly mildly bearish
This combination suggests that while short-term momentum may offer sporadic buying opportunities, the dominant trend remains negative, warranting a cautious stance.
Investment Implications
Investors should weigh the technical signals alongside fundamental factors and broader market conditions. The downgrade to Sell and the Mojo Score of 44.0 indicate that the stock is currently out of favour. Those holding positions may consider tightening stop-loss levels or reducing exposure, while prospective buyers might wait for clearer signs of trend reversal before committing capital.
Given the stock’s historical outperformance over three years, a recovery remains possible, but it will require a sustained improvement in technical momentum and market sentiment.
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