Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Market Signals

Technical Trend Overview: From Bearish to Mildly Bearish

The stock’s technical trend has transitioned from a firmly bearish stance to a mildly bearish one, signalling a potential stabilisation in price action. On a weekly basis, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bearish, indicating that downward momentum still dominates in the short term. However, the monthly MACD has softened to mildly bearish, suggesting that longer-term selling pressure is easing.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents a more encouraging picture. Weekly RSI readings have turned bullish, reflecting improving buying interest and momentum. Conversely, the monthly RSI remains neutral with no clear signal, implying that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold on a longer horizon. This divergence between weekly and monthly RSI readings highlights a potential inflection point in momentum.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands: Mixed Signals

Daily moving averages continue to exert bearish pressure, with the stock price trading below key averages, reinforcing short-term weakness. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly charts remain mildly bearish, indicating that price volatility is contained but skewed towards the downside. The stock’s current price of ₹426.60 is below its previous close of ₹434.05, with intraday trading ranging between ₹422.70 and ₹435.00.

These technical parameters suggest that while short-term momentum is subdued, the stock is not exhibiting extreme volatility or breakdown, which could provide a foundation for a potential rebound if buying interest strengthens.

Additional Technical Indicators: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV

The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator remains bearish on a weekly basis but has improved to mildly bearish monthly, mirroring the MACD’s trend and reinforcing the notion of easing selling pressure over the longer term. Dow Theory analysis offers a mildly bullish weekly signal, indicating that the stock may be forming a base or beginning a recovery phase. However, the monthly Dow Theory trend remains inconclusive.

On the volume front, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is mildly bullish weekly, suggesting that accumulation may be occurring despite price weakness. The monthly OBV, however, shows no clear trend, indicating that volume support is not yet firmly established over the longer term.

Price Performance Relative to Sensex and Historical Context

Kalyan Jewellers’ recent price performance has been mixed when compared to the broader market benchmark, the Sensex. Over the past week, the stock outperformed the Sensex with a 10.19% gain versus the Sensex’s 0.50% rise, signalling short-term strength. However, this was followed by a sharp 15.87% decline over the past month, contrasting with the Sensex’s modest 0.79% gain.

Year-to-date, the stock has declined by 12.15%, underperforming the Sensex’s 1.16% fall. Over the last year, Kalyan Jewellers has lagged significantly with an 18% loss compared to the Sensex’s robust 10.41% gain. Despite this, the company’s three-year return of 275.53% vastly outpaces the Sensex’s 38.81%, underscoring strong long-term growth potential.

The 52-week price range of ₹347.65 to ₹617.30 highlights significant volatility, with the current price near the lower end of this spectrum, suggesting the stock may be undervalued relative to its recent highs.

MarketsMOJO Grade Upgrade and Market Capitalisation Insights

Reflecting the evolving technical landscape, MarketsMOJO upgraded Kalyan Jewellers’ Mojo Grade from Sell to Hold on 19 Jan 2026. The current Mojo Score stands at 55.0, indicating a neutral stance with potential for improvement. The Market Cap Grade remains low at 2, consistent with the company’s mid-cap status and moderate liquidity.

This upgrade signals cautious optimism among analysts, recognising the stock’s recent technical stabilisation and potential for recovery, while acknowledging ongoing risks from bearish daily moving averages and mixed monthly indicators.

Strategic Technical Outlook and Investor Considerations

Investors should note that the weekly bullish RSI and mildly bullish Dow Theory signals suggest that Kalyan Jewellers may be entering a consolidation or early recovery phase. However, the persistence of bearish MACD and moving averages on shorter timeframes warrants prudence, as the stock could face resistance near the current price levels.

Given the stock’s significant underperformance relative to the Sensex over the past year, alongside its strong three-year returns, the current technical signals may represent an opportunity for medium-term investors to accumulate at attractive valuations, provided they monitor momentum indicators closely.

Conclusion: A Balanced Technical Profile with Cautious Optimism

Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd currently presents a balanced technical profile characterised by mixed signals across multiple indicators and timeframes. The shift from bearish to mildly bearish trends, combined with weekly bullish momentum indicators such as RSI and OBV, suggests that the stock may be poised for a gradual recovery or at least a period of consolidation.

However, the persistence of bearish daily moving averages and monthly MACD readings advises caution, especially for short-term traders. The MarketsMOJO Hold rating reflects this nuanced outlook, recommending investors to watch for confirmation of sustained bullish momentum before committing to significant positions.

Long-term investors may find value in the stock’s attractive three-year returns and current valuation near the lower end of its 52-week range, but should remain vigilant to evolving technical signals and broader market conditions.

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