Kennametal India Ltd Sees Mixed Technical Signals Amid Price Momentum Shift

Price Momentum and Market Performance

Kennametal India Ltd’s latest trading session saw the stock rally from an intraday low of ₹2,061.55 to a high of ₹2,248.00, closing well above the previous day’s close of ₹1,970.05. This represents a robust daily gain of 11.77%, a significant outperformance compared to the Sensex’s modest 2.30% gain over the past week. The stock’s year-to-date return stands at 5.09%, outperforming the Sensex’s negative 1.74% return over the same period, highlighting relative strength in the current market environment.

Over longer horizons, Kennametal India’s returns are more mixed. While the stock has delivered a 138.42% gain over five years, comfortably surpassing the Sensex’s 66.63% return, its 10-year return of 210.13% trails the Sensex’s 245.70%. This suggests that while the company has been a strong performer in the medium term, it has lagged the broader market over the last decade.

Technical Trend Shift: From Bearish to Mildly Bearish

The technical trend for Kennametal India has recently shifted from a clear bearish stance to a mildly bearish one, reflecting a tentative improvement in price action. This nuanced change is supported by a mix of indicator signals that paint a complex picture for traders and investors.

On the daily chart, moving averages remain mildly bearish, indicating that while short-term momentum has improved, the stock has yet to establish a definitive uptrend. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages continue to act as resistance levels, and a sustained break above these would be required to confirm a bullish reversal.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on both weekly and monthly timeframes, signalling that the underlying momentum has yet to fully turn positive. The MACD line continues to trade below its signal line, suggesting that the recent price surge may be a short-term correction rather than a sustained trend reversal.

Similarly, the Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator is bearish on weekly and monthly charts, reinforcing the cautious outlook from momentum indicators. These signals imply that despite the strong daily price gain, the broader momentum remains subdued, and investors should watch for confirmation before committing to a bullish stance.

RSI and Bollinger Bands: Divergent Signals

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly and monthly charts currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further price movement in either direction.

Bollinger Bands present a more nuanced view: weekly bands are bullish, indicating price strength and potential upward volatility, while monthly bands are mildly bearish, reflecting longer-term caution. This divergence highlights the importance of monitoring multiple timeframes to gauge the stock’s true momentum.

Volume and Dow Theory Assessment

Volume-based indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) lack clear signals on weekly and monthly charts, limiting insights into the strength behind recent price moves. Meanwhile, Dow Theory analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly timeframe and a mildly bearish trend on the monthly scale, further underscoring the mixed technical landscape.

Valuation and Market Capitalisation Context

Kennametal India holds a Market Cap Grade of 3, reflecting a mid-tier market capitalisation within the industrial manufacturing sector. The company’s Mojo Score has recently declined to 48.0, resulting in a downgrade from Hold to Sell as of 24 Dec 2025. This downgrade reflects a cautious stance based on the current technical and fundamental outlook.

Investors should weigh the stock’s strong recent price momentum against the prevailing bearish technical indicators and the downgrade in rating. The stock’s 52-week high of ₹2,745.10 remains a key resistance level, while the 52-week low of ₹1,932.10 provides a reference for downside risk.

Comparative Performance and Sector Outlook

Within the industrial manufacturing sector, Kennametal India’s recent price action stands out for its volatility and relative strength. However, the broader sector has experienced mixed trends, with many peers facing headwinds from global supply chain disruptions and fluctuating commodity prices.

Given the company’s current technical profile, investors should consider the potential for short-term gains balanced against the risk of a technical pullback. The mildly bearish moving averages and persistent bearish MACD suggest that any rally may be vulnerable without sustained volume support and confirmation from momentum indicators.

Conclusion: Cautious Optimism Amid Mixed Signals

Kennametal India Ltd’s recent price surge to ₹2,201.90 marks a significant shift in momentum, yet the technical indicators present a mixed picture. While Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart and the strong daily price action hint at bullish potential, the bearish MACD, KST, and mildly bearish moving averages counsel caution.

The downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO, with a Mojo Score of 48.0, reflects this ambivalence. Investors should closely monitor key resistance levels near ₹2,245 and the 52-week high of ₹2,745.10, alongside volume trends and momentum indicators, before making decisive investment moves.

In summary, Kennametal India remains a stock with potential upside tempered by technical headwinds, making it suitable for investors with a higher risk tolerance and a focus on short- to medium-term trading opportunities rather than long-term buy-and-hold strategies.

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