Price Momentum and Recent Market Performance
LIC’s current price stands at ₹901.50, up from the previous close of ₹840.45, marking a robust intraday rally with a high of ₹907.50 and a low of ₹845.05. This surge contrasts with the broader market, as the Sensex has shown more muted returns over comparable periods. Over the past week, LIC’s stock return was an impressive 9.35%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 1.59%. The one-month return also remains positive at 6.06%, while the Sensex declined by 1.74% during the same timeframe.
Year-to-date, LIC has gained 5.48%, again outperforming the Sensex’s negative 1.92%. Over the last year, the stock’s return of 8.77% slightly surpasses the Sensex’s 7.07%, and over three years, LIC has delivered a remarkable 50.25% return compared to the Sensex’s 38.13%. These figures underscore LIC’s resilience and relative strength in the insurance sector despite recent technical challenges.
Technical Trend Shift: From Bearish to Mildly Bearish
The technical trend for LIC has shifted from outright bearish to mildly bearish, signalling a tentative improvement but still cautioning investors. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on the weekly chart, indicating that downward momentum persists in the short term. However, the monthly MACD has softened to mildly bearish, suggesting that longer-term selling pressure may be easing.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe continues to show bearish momentum, reflecting that the stock is not yet in oversold territory but faces selling pressure. The monthly RSI, however, does not currently signal any definitive trend, indicating a neutral stance over the longer term.
Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages: Conflicting Signals
Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart have turned bullish, implying increased volatility with upward price movement and potential for further gains. Conversely, the monthly Bollinger Bands remain mildly bearish, highlighting a divergence between short-term optimism and longer-term caution.
Daily moving averages also indicate a mildly bearish stance, with the stock price hovering near key support levels. This suggests that while recent price action has been positive, the overall trend remains fragile and susceptible to reversal if selling intensifies.
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Additional Technical Indicators: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator presents a mixed outlook, with a bearish weekly signal contrasting a bullish monthly reading. This divergence suggests that while short-term momentum remains weak, longer-term trends may be stabilising or improving.
Dow Theory analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly chart, indicating indecision among investors in the near term. The monthly Dow Theory remains mildly bearish, reinforcing the cautious stance on LIC’s longer-term price trajectory.
On the volume front, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is mildly bullish weekly but mildly bearish monthly. This implies that recent buying interest has increased, but overall volume trends over the month do not yet confirm a sustained uptrend.
Mojo Score and Grade Downgrade
Reflecting these mixed technical signals and the recent price momentum shift, LIC’s Mojo Score currently stands at 45.0, categorised as a Sell. This represents a downgrade from its previous Hold rating on 07 Jan 2026. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating a relatively low market capitalisation strength compared to peers in the insurance sector.
Investors should note that this downgrade is driven by the combination of bearish weekly MACD and RSI readings, alongside mildly bearish moving averages and monthly Bollinger Bands. While short-term price action has been positive, the overall technical landscape advises caution.
Comparative Sector and Market Context
LIC operates within the insurance industry, a sector that has faced headwinds due to regulatory changes and evolving market dynamics. Despite these challenges, LIC’s relative outperformance against the Sensex over multiple timeframes highlights its underlying resilience.
However, the current technical indicators suggest that the stock may be entering a consolidation phase or facing resistance near its 52-week high of ₹980.05. The 52-week low of ₹715.35 provides a significant support level, but the stock’s recent volatility underscores the need for careful monitoring.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
For investors, LIC’s recent price momentum and technical indicator shifts present a mixed picture. The strong intraday gains and outperformance relative to the Sensex are encouraging, but the prevailing bearish and mildly bearish signals across weekly and monthly charts counsel prudence.
Short-term traders may find opportunities in the current volatility, especially given the bullish weekly Bollinger Bands and mildly bullish weekly OBV. However, longer-term investors should be mindful of the downgraded Mojo Grade and the potential for price consolidation or correction.
Monitoring key support levels near ₹845 and resistance around ₹907 to ₹980 will be critical in assessing the stock’s next directional move. Additionally, watching for improvements in monthly MACD and RSI readings could signal a more sustained recovery.
Overall, LIC remains a significant player in the insurance sector with solid fundamentals, but its technical profile suggests a cautious approach is warranted in the near term.
Summary of Key Technical Metrics
- MACD: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Mildly Bearish
- RSI: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Neutral
- Bollinger Bands: Weekly Bullish, Monthly Mildly Bearish
- Moving Averages (Daily): Mildly Bearish
- KST: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Bullish
- Dow Theory: Weekly No Trend, Monthly Mildly Bearish
- OBV: Weekly Mildly Bullish, Monthly Mildly Bearish
Price and Return Highlights
- Current Price: ₹901.50
- Previous Close: ₹840.45
- 52-Week High: ₹980.05
- 52-Week Low: ₹715.35
- Day Change: +7.26%
- 1 Week Return: +9.35% vs Sensex +1.59%
- 1 Month Return: +6.06% vs Sensex -1.74%
- Year-to-Date Return: +5.48% vs Sensex -1.92%
- 1 Year Return: +8.77% vs Sensex +7.07%
- 3 Year Return: +50.25% vs Sensex +38.13%
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