Key Events This Week
29 Dec 2025: Significant open interest surge amid mixed price action (Rs.2,079.50)
30 Dec 2025: Technical momentum shifts with mixed market signals (Rs.2,081.00)
31 Dec 2025: Price rebounds with 1.49% gain (Rs.2,112.00)
1 Jan 2026: Slight pullback amid consolidation (Rs.2,103.30)
2 Jan 2026: Week closes with mild recovery (Rs.2,108.00)
29 December 2025: Surge in Open Interest Amid Price Decline
On 29 December, Lupin Ltd’s stock price declined by 1.58% to close at Rs.2,079.50, underperforming the Sensex which fell 0.41% that day. Despite the price drop, the derivatives market showed heightened activity with open interest rising sharply by 12.54%, from 31,490 to 35,440 contracts. Futures volume was robust at 17,362 contracts, and the combined futures and options notional value reached approximately ₹8,23,15 lakhs, dominated by options at ₹7,39,645 lakhs.
This divergence between price weakness and rising open interest suggests active repositioning by market participants, possibly reflecting a mix of speculative short-term bearish bets and strategic accumulation by institutional investors. The stock traded below its short-term moving averages but remained above longer-term averages, indicating some near-term selling pressure amid a generally positive medium-term trend.
Investor participation was notable, with delivery volumes surging by over 213% compared to the five-day average, signalling increased conviction among longer-term holders despite the price dip.
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30 December 2025: Mixed Technical Momentum Amid Consolidation
On 30 December, Lupin’s share price marginally increased by 0.07% to Rs.2,081.00, while the Sensex edged down 0.01%. Technical indicators presented a nuanced picture: the weekly MACD remained bullish, supporting short-term momentum, but the monthly MACD turned mildly bearish, signalling weakening longer-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered in a neutral zone, indicating no extreme momentum bias.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator echoed this mixed sentiment, bullish on the weekly timeframe but mildly bearish monthly. Daily moving averages continued to support a bullish stance, with the stock trading above key averages, and Bollinger Bands suggested contained volatility within an upward channel.
Volume analysis via On-Balance Volume (OBV) showed no clear trend confirmation, implying that price movements lacked strong volume support. Dow Theory assessments aligned with a mildly bullish outlook, indicating gradual accumulation rather than distribution.
31 December 2025 to 2 January 2026: Price Recovery and Consolidation
On 31 December, Lupin rebounded strongly, gaining 1.49% to close at Rs.2,112.00, outperforming the Sensex’s 0.83% gain. This recovery was followed by a slight pullback on 1 January, with the stock declining 0.41% to Rs.2,103.30 amid low volume, signalling consolidation. On 2 January, the stock edged up 0.22% to Rs.2,108.00, closing the week near its opening level but below the week’s high.
Throughout these sessions, the stock remained above key long-term moving averages, supporting the medium-term bullish case despite short-term volatility. The Sensex outperformed Lupin over the week, rising 1.35% compared to Lupin’s 0.23% decline, reflecting sector-specific pressures and mixed investor sentiment.
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Daily Price Comparison: Lupin Ltd vs Sensex
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Rs.2,079.50 | -1.58% | 37,140.23 | -0.41% |
| 2025-12-30 | Rs.2,081.00 | +0.07% | 37,135.83 | -0.01% |
| 2025-12-31 | Rs.2,112.00 | +1.49% | 37,443.41 | +0.83% |
| 2026-01-01 | Rs.2,103.30 | -0.41% | 37,497.10 | +0.14% |
| 2026-01-02 | Rs.2,108.00 | +0.22% | 37,799.57 | +0.81% |
Key Takeaways
Positive Signals: Lupin’s derivatives market activity surged notably, with open interest increasing by 12.54%, indicating strong investor engagement and potential for significant price moves. The stock remains above key long-term moving averages, supporting a medium-term bullish outlook. The Mojo Score upgrade to 71.0 with a Buy grade reflects improved fundamentals and analyst confidence.
Cautionary Signals: The stock underperformed the Sensex by 1.58% on the opening day of the week and closed the week down 0.23%, while the Sensex gained 1.35%. Mixed technical momentum, with weekly indicators bullish but monthly indicators mildly bearish, suggests potential volatility and the need for careful monitoring. Lack of volume confirmation on price moves adds to uncertainty in the short term.
Conclusion
Lupin Ltd’s week was characterised by a complex interplay of rising derivatives activity and mixed technical signals, resulting in a slight price decline despite broader market gains. The surge in open interest and delivery volumes points to heightened investor interest and possible repositioning ahead of future catalysts. While short-term momentum indicators show some fragility, the stock’s position above long-term moving averages and an upgraded Mojo Grade support a cautiously optimistic medium-term outlook. Investors should remain attentive to evolving technical trends and market developments to navigate potential volatility in this key pharmaceutical stock.
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