Madras Fertilizers Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Mixed Technical Signals

Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement

Madras Fertilizers Ltd (NSE: 694669) closed at ₹74.10 on 2 Feb 2026, down 2.54% from the previous close of ₹76.03. The stock traded within a range of ₹74.02 to ₹77.79 during the day, remaining well below its 52-week high of ₹106.90 but above the 52-week low of ₹66.34. This recent decline reflects a continuation of the bearish momentum that has been building over the past month.

The technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling increased selling pressure. Daily moving averages have turned bearish, indicating that short-term price action is under strain. This is corroborated by the Bollinger Bands, which show bearish signals on both weekly and monthly charts, suggesting that volatility is skewed towards downside risk.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains mildly bullish, hinting at some underlying positive momentum in the medium term. However, the monthly MACD is bearish, reflecting a longer-term downtrend that could weigh on the stock if the negative momentum persists.

The KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator aligns with this mixed signal scenario, showing mild bullishness on the weekly chart but bearishness on the monthly timeframe. This divergence between short- and long-term momentum indicators suggests that while there may be intermittent rallies, the broader trend remains negative.

RSI and Volume-Based Indicators

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further directional movement based on other technical factors.

Volume-based indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) also show no definitive trend on weekly or monthly charts, implying that volume is not strongly confirming either buying or selling pressure at present. This lack of volume confirmation adds to the uncertainty surrounding the stock’s immediate direction.

Moving Averages and Dow Theory Signals

Daily moving averages have deteriorated to a bearish stance, with the stock price trading below key averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This technical weakness often signals a continuation of downward momentum unless a strong reversal occurs.

According to Dow Theory, the weekly trend is mildly bearish, while the monthly trend shows no clear direction. This suggests that while short-term price action is negative, the longer-term trend remains uncertain, requiring close monitoring for confirmation of a sustained downtrend or potential recovery.

Comparative Performance Against Sensex

Over the past week, Madras Fertilizers Ltd outperformed the Sensex, gaining 0.99% compared to the benchmark’s 1.00% decline. However, this short-term resilience has not extended to longer periods. The stock has underperformed the Sensex over the past month (-6.12% vs. -4.67%) and year-to-date (-7.03% vs. -5.28%). Over the last year, the stock has declined 19.16%, while the Sensex has gained 5.16%, highlighting relative weakness.

Despite this, Madras Fertilizers has delivered strong long-term returns, with 3-year gains of 23.40% and an impressive 5-year return of 156.40%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 74.40% over the same period. Over a decade, the stock’s return of 457.14% dwarfs the Sensex’s 224.57%, underscoring its historical growth potential despite recent headwinds.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

MarketsMOJO assigns Madras Fertilizers a Mojo Score of 31.0, reflecting a Sell rating. This is a downgrade from the previous Strong Sell grade issued on 18 Nov 2025, indicating a slight improvement but still a cautious stance. The Market Cap Grade stands at 3, suggesting moderate market capitalisation relative to peers.

The downgrade in technical trend and the mixed signals from momentum indicators have contributed to this cautious rating. Investors should weigh these technical factors alongside fundamental considerations before making investment decisions.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

Madras Fertilizers Ltd’s recent technical deterioration signals caution for investors. The bearish daily moving averages and monthly MACD suggest that the stock may face continued downward pressure in the near term. The neutral RSI and lack of volume confirmation imply that the stock could remain range-bound or volatile until a clearer directional signal emerges.

Long-term investors may find comfort in the company’s strong historical returns and relative outperformance over five and ten years. However, the current technical setup advises prudence, especially for short-term traders or those seeking momentum-driven opportunities.

Monitoring the weekly MACD and KST indicators for signs of strengthening momentum will be crucial. A sustained break above key moving averages and a shift in Bollinger Bands towards bullishness could signal a reversal. Until then, the prevailing bearish technical environment suggests that downside risks remain elevated.

Summary of Key Technical Metrics:

• Current Price: ₹74.10 (down 2.54% on 2 Feb 2026)
• 52-Week Range: ₹66.34 - ₹106.90
• Technical Trend: Mildly Bearish to Bearish
• MACD: Weekly Mildly Bullish, Monthly Bearish
• RSI: Neutral (No Signal)
• Bollinger Bands: Bearish (Weekly & Monthly)
• Moving Averages: Bearish (Daily)
• KST: Weekly Mildly Bullish, Monthly Bearish
• Dow Theory: Weekly Mildly Bearish, Monthly No Trend
• OBV: No Trend (Weekly & Monthly)
• Mojo Score: 31.0 (Sell), downgraded from Strong Sell on 18 Nov 2025

Investors should continue to monitor these technical indicators closely, alongside fundamental developments, to gauge the stock’s trajectory in the coming weeks.

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