Technical Trend and Momentum Analysis
The stock of Mafatlal Industries Ltd (NSE: 706659) closed at ₹145.65 on 9 Jan 2026, down 2.74% from the previous close of ₹149.75. The intraday range saw a high of ₹151.90 and a low of ₹145.00, reflecting increased volatility. Over the past week, the stock has declined by 4.3%, significantly underperforming the Sensex’s modest 1.18% drop. The one-month and year-to-date returns also lag the benchmark, with losses of 3.73% and 5.3% respectively, while the one-year return stands at a negative 19.08% compared to the Sensex’s positive 7.72% gain.
From a technical perspective, the weekly and monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators have turned mildly bearish, signalling a weakening upward momentum. The MACD histogram on the weekly chart shows a contraction in bullish momentum, while the monthly MACD line has crossed below its signal line, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral on both weekly and monthly timeframes, indicating no immediate overbought or oversold conditions, but lacking a clear directional signal.
Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts have expanded with the price moving towards the lower band, a bearish indication suggesting increased selling pressure and potential continuation of the downward trend. The daily moving averages, however, maintain a mildly bullish stance, with the 20-day moving average still positioned above the 50-day average, hinting at some short-term support despite the broader negative momentum.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator, a momentum indicator, aligns with the MACD’s bearish signals on both weekly and monthly charts, further confirming the mild bearish trend. Dow Theory analysis, however, remains inconclusive with no definitive trend established on weekly or monthly scales, reflecting market indecision. On-balance volume (OBV) data is unavailable, limiting volume-based confirmation of price moves.
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Long-Term Performance and Market Capitalisation Context
Despite recent weakness, Mafatlal Industries Ltd has demonstrated strong long-term returns. Over a five-year horizon, the stock has surged by 521.64%, vastly outperforming the Sensex’s 72.56% gain. Similarly, the three-year return of 132.85% eclipses the Sensex’s 40.53%. However, the ten-year return of 112.57% trails the Sensex’s 237.61%, indicating some relative underperformance in the longer term.
The company’s market capitalisation grade stands at 4, reflecting a mid-sized market cap within its sector. The recent downgrade in its Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell on 5 Jan 2026, with a current Mojo Score of 48.0, signals a deteriorating outlook from a technical and fundamental perspective. This downgrade is consistent with the observed bearish technical indicators and the stock’s underperformance relative to the broader market indices.
Sectoral and Industry Considerations
Mafatlal Industries operates within the Garments & Apparels sector, which has faced mixed headwinds amid fluctuating consumer demand and rising input costs. The sector’s performance has been uneven, with some companies benefiting from export growth while others grapple with domestic market pressures. Mafatlal’s technical signals suggest it is currently on the weaker side of this spectrum, with bearish momentum potentially reflecting sector-specific challenges as well as company-specific factors.
Investors should note that while daily moving averages provide some short-term bullish support, the broader weekly and monthly indicators caution against aggressive positioning. The absence of strong RSI signals implies that the stock is not yet oversold, leaving room for further downside if negative catalysts persist.
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Investor Implications and Outlook
Given the mildly bearish technical trend and recent downgrade in Mojo Grade, investors should approach Mafatlal Industries Ltd with caution. The stock’s current price of ₹145.65 is closer to its 52-week low of ₹111.50 than its high of ₹204.90, indicating a significant retracement from recent peaks. The technical indicators suggest that while short-term support exists, the medium-term outlook remains vulnerable to further declines.
For traders, the mildly bullish daily moving averages may offer tactical entry points for short-term trades, but the overarching weekly and monthly bearish signals counsel prudence. Long-term investors should weigh the company’s strong historical returns against the current technical deterioration and sector challenges before committing fresh capital.
Monitoring the MACD and KST oscillators for any reversal signals will be critical in the coming weeks. Additionally, a break below the recent low of ₹145 could accelerate bearish momentum, while a sustained recovery above the 50-day moving average might signal a return to sideways or bullish conditions.
In summary, Mafatlal Industries Ltd is at a technical crossroads, with momentum indicators pointing to a cautious stance. Investors should balance the company’s long-term growth story against the present technical headwinds and sector dynamics.
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