Manappuram Finance Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Market Signals

Recent Price Movement and Market Context

On 26 Feb 2026, Manappuram Finance closed at ₹296.55, down 2.74% from the previous close of ₹304.90. The stock traded within a range of ₹295.00 to ₹305.75 during the day, remaining below its 52-week high of ₹320.95 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹194.70. This recent dip contrasts with the broader market trend, as the Sensex has shown a more modest decline over the same period.

Examining returns, Manappuram Finance has outperformed the Sensex significantly over longer horizons. The stock delivered a 44.8% return over the past year compared to the Sensex’s 10.29%, and an impressive 186.8% over three years versus the Sensex’s 38.36%. Even over a decade, the stock’s return of 893.47% dwarfs the Sensex’s 258.10%, underscoring its strong historical performance despite short-term volatility.

Technical Trend Evolution: From Bullish to Mildly Bullish

The technical trend for Manappuram Finance has shifted from a clear bullish stance to a more tempered mildly bullish outlook. This change reflects a cautious market sentiment, where momentum indicators suggest potential consolidation or a pause in the recent uptrend rather than a full reversal.

Daily moving averages support this mildly bullish view, indicating that short-term price action remains above key averages but with reduced momentum. The stock’s 50-day and 200-day moving averages continue to provide support, though the narrowing gap between them signals a potential slowdown in upward momentum.

MACD and Momentum Indicators: Divergent Signals

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD is mildly bearish, suggesting some weakening in momentum over the short term. However, the monthly MACD remains bullish, indicating that the longer-term trend is still intact and positive. This divergence highlights the importance of timeframe when analysing momentum and suggests that short-term traders should exercise caution while long-term investors may find comfort in the sustained bullish monthly signal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers no clear signal on either the weekly or monthly charts, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of extreme readings implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, which could mean a period of sideways movement or consolidation is underway.

Bollinger Bands and KST: Signs of Mild Optimism

Bollinger Bands reinforce the mixed technical outlook. Weekly readings are mildly bullish, indicating that price volatility is contained and the stock is trading near the upper band, a sign of potential upward momentum. Monthly Bollinger Bands are bullish, supporting the view of a sustained positive trend over the longer term.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is bullish on both weekly and monthly timeframes, signalling positive momentum and potential for further gains. This is a notable counterbalance to the weekly MACD’s mild bearishness and suggests that momentum oscillators are still favouring the bulls in the medium to long term.

Volume and Dow Theory: Mixed Technical Confirmation

On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly chart but remains bullish on the monthly scale. This suggests that while recent trading volumes have not decisively supported price moves, the longer-term accumulation phase is intact, which is a positive sign for sustained price appreciation.

Dow Theory assessments also reflect this duality. Weekly readings are mildly bearish, indicating some short-term caution among market participants. Conversely, the monthly Dow Theory remains bullish, reinforcing the idea that the broader trend is still upward despite recent pullbacks.

Mojo Score and Market Positioning

Manappuram Finance’s current Mojo Score stands at 58.0, with a Mojo Grade of Hold, upgraded from a previous Sell rating on 18 Feb 2025. This upgrade reflects improved technical and fundamental conditions, though the score suggests a cautious stance rather than a strong buy recommendation. The company holds a Market Cap Grade of 3, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation within its sector.

Despite the recent 2.74% decline in price, the stock’s long-term outperformance relative to the Sensex and its mixed but generally positive technical indicators suggest that investors should monitor developments closely. The Hold rating implies that while the stock is not currently a strong buy, it remains a viable option for investors with a medium to long-term horizon.

Investor Takeaway: Balancing Caution with Opportunity

Manappuram Finance Ltd’s technical indicators paint a picture of a stock at a crossroads. The mildly bullish daily moving averages and bullish monthly MACD and KST suggest that the underlying trend remains positive. However, the weekly MACD’s mild bearishness and the absence of strong RSI signals indicate that short-term momentum is fragile and may be susceptible to further volatility.

Investors should weigh the stock’s impressive long-term returns against the current technical caution. The stock’s 1-year return of 44.8% and 3-year return of 186.8% far exceed the Sensex benchmarks, highlighting its potential as a growth vehicle within the NBFC sector. Yet, the recent price pullback and mixed weekly signals counsel prudence, especially for short-term traders.

Monitoring key support levels near ₹295 and resistance around ₹306 will be critical in the coming sessions. A sustained move above the daily moving averages and a positive weekly MACD crossover could signal renewed momentum, while a break below support might indicate deeper correction.

Overall, Manappuram Finance remains a stock with solid fundamentals and a cautiously optimistic technical outlook. Investors with a medium to long-term perspective may find value in holding or accumulating on dips, while short-term traders should remain vigilant for clearer momentum confirmation.

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