Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement
MRPL’s current price stands at ₹139.15, down 2.62% from the previous close of ₹142.90 on 12 January 2026. The stock traded within a range of ₹138.40 to ₹143.45 during the day, remaining well below its 52-week high of ₹185.00 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹98.95. This price action underscores a period of consolidation with a slight downward bias, consistent with the technical trend shift from sideways to mildly bearish.
Over the past week, MRPL’s stock return has declined by 8.06%, significantly underperforming the Sensex’s 2.55% drop. The one-month and year-to-date returns also reflect weakness, with MRPL down 9.41% and 8.57% respectively, compared to Sensex’s modest declines of 1.29% and 1.93%. However, the longer-term performance remains robust, with three-year and five-year returns of 148.93% and 260.03%, far outpacing the Sensex’s 37.58% and 71.32% gains. This divergence highlights the stock’s strong historical growth despite recent technical headwinds.
MACD and Momentum Indicators Signal Caution
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a key momentum gauge, signals a mildly bearish outlook on both weekly and monthly charts. The weekly MACD line has crossed below its signal line, suggesting a loss of upward momentum in the near term. Similarly, the monthly MACD confirms this trend, indicating that the stock’s medium-term momentum is also weakening. These signals align with the observed price decline and the shift in technical trend.
Complementing the MACD, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator also reflects a mildly bearish stance on weekly charts and a bearish reading on monthly charts. This further reinforces the notion that MRPL’s momentum is under pressure, particularly over the medium term.
RSI and Bollinger Bands: Mixed Signals
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral on both weekly and monthly timeframes, showing no clear overbought or oversold conditions. This lack of a definitive RSI signal suggests that the stock is not yet in an extreme momentum phase, leaving room for either a rebound or further decline depending on market catalysts.
Conversely, Bollinger Bands indicate bearish pressure on both weekly and monthly charts. The stock price is trading near the lower band, signalling increased volatility and a potential continuation of the downward trend. This technical setup often precedes either a consolidation phase or a corrective pullback, warranting close monitoring by investors.
Moving Averages and Dow Theory Insights
Daily moving averages provide a mildly bullish signal, with the stock price hovering just above its short-term averages. This suggests some underlying support in the immediate term, possibly reflecting investor confidence in MRPL’s fundamentals despite recent price weakness.
However, Dow Theory assessments on weekly and monthly charts lean mildly bearish, indicating that the broader trend may be under strain. This divergence between short-term moving averages and longer-term Dow Theory signals highlights the complexity of MRPL’s current technical landscape.
On-Balance Volume and Market Capitalisation
On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly chart but reveals a bullish pattern on the monthly timeframe. This suggests that while short-term trading volumes may be indecisive, longer-term accumulation by investors could be supporting the stock price. MRPL’s market capitalisation grade stands at 3, reflecting a mid-tier valuation within the oil sector.
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Rating Upgrade Reflects Improved Outlook
MarketsMOJO upgraded MRPL’s mojo grade from Sell to Hold on 5 January 2026, raising the mojo score to 64.0. This upgrade reflects a cautious optimism based on the company’s improving fundamentals and valuation metrics, despite the prevailing mildly bearish technical signals. The Hold rating suggests that investors should maintain positions but remain vigilant for further developments.
MRPL’s industry and sector classification within Oil remains a critical factor, as global energy demand and crude price fluctuations continue to influence stock performance. The company’s ability to navigate these macroeconomic variables will be pivotal in determining whether the current technical weakness is temporary or indicative of a deeper correction.
Comparative Performance and Long-Term Perspective
While short-term returns have lagged behind the Sensex, MRPL’s long-term performance remains impressive. Over five years, the stock has delivered a remarkable 260.03% return, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 71.32%. Even over ten years, MRPL has posted a 108.93% gain, underscoring its resilience and growth potential within the oil sector.
This long-term outperformance provides a strong foundation for investors considering MRPL as part of a diversified portfolio, particularly given the stock’s current valuation and technical positioning.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
Investors should approach MRPL with a balanced perspective. The mildly bearish technical indicators caution against aggressive buying in the short term, while the Hold rating and positive long-term fundamentals suggest that the stock remains a viable holding for patient investors.
Key support levels near ₹138 and the 52-week low of ₹98.95 should be monitored closely, as a breach could signal further downside. Conversely, a recovery above daily moving averages and a stabilisation of MACD and Bollinger Bands could herald a resumption of upward momentum.
Given the oil sector’s inherent volatility, MRPL’s technical and fundamental profile warrants ongoing analysis, particularly as global energy markets evolve in response to geopolitical and economic factors.
Summary of Technical Indicators
- MACD: Weekly and Monthly - Mildly Bearish
- RSI: Weekly and Monthly - Neutral (No Signal)
- Bollinger Bands: Weekly and Monthly - Bearish
- Moving Averages: Daily - Mildly Bullish
- KST: Weekly - Mildly Bearish; Monthly - Bearish
- Dow Theory: Weekly and Monthly - Mildly Bearish
- OBV: Weekly - No Trend; Monthly - Bullish
These mixed signals highlight the importance of a nuanced approach to MRPL’s stock, combining technical analysis with fundamental insights to guide investment decisions.
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