Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement
MRPL’s current market price stands at ₹144.10, down marginally by 0.55% from the previous close of ₹144.90. The stock traded within a range of ₹143.60 to ₹146.55 during the session, reflecting subdued volatility. Despite this, the broader technical trend has shifted from mildly bullish to sideways, indicating a pause in upward momentum and a potential consolidation phase.
The 52-week price range remains wide, with a high of ₹185.00 and a low of ₹98.95, highlighting significant price swings over the past year. This volatility is a key consideration for traders analysing momentum shifts and potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.
MACD Signals: Weekly and Monthly Perspectives
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mildly bearish signal on both weekly and monthly charts. On the weekly timeframe, the MACD line has crossed below the signal line, suggesting weakening bullish momentum and the possibility of further downside or sideways movement. Similarly, the monthly MACD remains mildly bearish, reinforcing the notion that the stock’s medium-term trend is under pressure.
This dual timeframe bearishness in MACD contrasts with the daily moving averages, which still maintain a mildly bullish stance, reflecting short-term resilience despite broader caution.
RSI and Bollinger Bands: Momentum and Volatility Insights
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart has turned bearish, currently indicating that the stock is losing upward momentum and may be entering an oversold or neutral zone. The monthly RSI, however, shows no definitive signal, suggesting a lack of strong directional conviction over the longer term.
Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly charts are bearish, signalling increased volatility and a potential for price compression or downward pressure. The stock price is currently closer to the lower band on the weekly chart, which may imply a short-term oversold condition but also warns of possible further declines if the trend persists.
Moving Averages and KST: Mixed Signals
Daily moving averages remain mildly bullish, with short-term averages still positioned above longer-term ones, indicating some underlying support for the stock price in the near term. However, the weekly Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator is bullish, suggesting momentum could pick up in the short term, while the monthly KST is bearish, reflecting caution over the medium term.
This divergence between weekly and monthly KST readings highlights the complexity of MRPL’s momentum profile, where short-term optimism is tempered by longer-term concerns.
Dow Theory and On-Balance Volume (OBV) Analysis
According to Dow Theory, both weekly and monthly trends are mildly bullish, indicating that the broader market sentiment towards MRPL remains cautiously positive. However, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows no clear trend on either timeframe, suggesting that volume is not confirming price movements decisively. This lack of volume confirmation often precedes sideways price action or consolidation phases.
Comparative Performance Against Sensex
MRPL’s recent returns have lagged behind the benchmark Sensex across multiple timeframes. Over the past week, MRPL declined by 3.26%, compared to Sensex’s 1.02% fall. The one-month return for MRPL was a negative 8.71%, significantly underperforming the Sensex’s modest 1.18% decline. Year-to-date, MRPL is down 2.86%, while the Sensex has gained 8.39%. Over the one-year horizon, MRPL’s return is slightly negative at -0.89%, contrasting with the Sensex’s 7.62% gain.
However, MRPL’s longer-term performance remains impressive, with three-year and five-year returns of 160.11% and 320.12% respectively, far outpacing the Sensex’s 38.54% and 77.88% gains over the same periods. The ten-year return of 123.76% trails the Sensex’s 224.76%, reflecting cyclical industry factors and market dynamics.
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Mojo Score and Rating Revision
MarketsMOJO has recently downgraded MRPL’s Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold as of 8 December 2025, reflecting the evolving technical landscape and cautious outlook. The current Mojo Score stands at 54.0, indicating a moderate conviction level. The Market Cap Grade is 3, suggesting a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers in the oil sector.
This downgrade aligns with the mixed technical signals and sideways momentum, advising investors to adopt a watchful stance rather than aggressive accumulation at this juncture.
Sector and Industry Context
Operating within the oil sector, MRPL faces sector-specific headwinds including fluctuating crude oil prices, regulatory changes, and global demand uncertainties. These factors contribute to the technical volatility observed and underscore the importance of monitoring momentum indicators closely.
Investors should weigh MRPL’s technical signals against broader sector trends and macroeconomic developments to gauge potential entry or exit points effectively.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
MRPL’s technical indicators collectively suggest a phase of consolidation and cautious sentiment. The mildly bearish MACD on weekly and monthly charts, combined with bearish RSI and Bollinger Bands, point to a potential pause or mild correction in price momentum. However, daily moving averages and weekly KST offer some short-term bullish support, indicating that any downside may be limited or temporary.
Investors should monitor key support levels near ₹140 and resistance around ₹150 to gauge the next directional move. Volume trends, as indicated by the neutral OBV, will be critical in confirming any breakout or breakdown.
Given the recent downgrade to Hold and the mixed technical signals, a prudent approach would be to await clearer confirmation of trend direction before initiating new positions. Long-term investors may consider MRPL’s strong historical returns and sector fundamentals but should remain vigilant to technical shifts and market volatility.
Summary of Technical Ratings
MarketsMOJO’s comprehensive technical assessment rates MRPL as Hold with a Mojo Score of 54.0. The downgrade from Buy reflects the transition from a mildly bullish to a sideways trend and the predominance of bearish signals on key momentum indicators. This nuanced rating advises investors to balance optimism with caution, recognising both the stock’s resilience and the risks of near-term volatility.
Conclusion
Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. is currently navigating a complex technical landscape marked by mixed momentum signals and a sideways price trend. While short-term indicators offer some bullish hints, the broader weekly and monthly charts caution against aggressive positioning. Investors should closely monitor evolving technical parameters and sector dynamics to make informed decisions in this fluctuating environment.
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