Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
Marico’s open interest (OI) in derivatives has risen sharply by 5,147 contracts, a 14.68% increase from the previous tally of 35,071 to 40,218. This notable expansion in OI is accompanied by a daily volume of 19,074 contracts, reflecting active participation in futures and options trading. The futures segment alone accounts for a value of approximately ₹80,872 lakhs, while options contribute a staggering ₹9,170 crores, culminating in a total derivatives value exceeding ₹81,568 lakhs.
This surge in OI, alongside elevated volumes, typically indicates fresh positions being established rather than existing ones being squared off. Market participants appear to be positioning themselves for a potential directional move, with the underlying stock price currently at ₹750, just 1.87% shy of its 52-week high of ₹765.3.
Price Performance and Technical Strength
Marico has outperformed its sector by 0.98% today, registering a 1.14% gain, and has delivered a 2.25% return over the past two consecutive trading sessions. The stock is trading above all key moving averages — 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — signalling sustained bullish momentum. This technical backdrop supports the notion that the recent OI increase is driven by bullish bets rather than hedging or short-covering.
However, it is noteworthy that investor participation in terms of delivery volume has declined by 24.35% compared to the five-day average, with 6.38 lakh shares delivered on 26 Dec. This divergence between derivatives activity and physical market participation may suggest speculative interest dominating the current phase.
Market Positioning and Directional Bets
The sharp rise in open interest, coupled with rising prices and strong volume, typically points to fresh long positions being built by traders anticipating further upside. The futures value of ₹80,872 lakhs and the substantial options value indicate that both call and put options are actively traded, with a possible skew towards calls given the bullish price action.
Given Marico’s mid-cap status with a market capitalisation of ₹97,525.33 crores and a Mojo Score of 67.0, upgraded from a previous Sell to a Hold rating on 9 Dec 2025, the stock is attracting renewed investor interest. The Market Cap Grade of 2 reflects moderate liquidity and institutional interest, supporting the sustainability of this momentum.
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Sector and Benchmark Comparison
Marico’s 1-day return of 1.08% notably outpaces the edible oil sector’s modest 0.09% gain and contrasts with the broader Sensex’s decline of 0.41% on the same day. This relative strength underscores the stock’s appeal amid a mixed market environment. The edible oil sector, often sensitive to commodity price fluctuations and regulatory changes, has seen varied performance, but Marico’s consistent gains and technical resilience set it apart.
Trading liquidity remains adequate, with the stock’s average traded value supporting trade sizes up to ₹1.82 crores based on 2% of the five-day average traded value. This liquidity profile favours institutional and retail participation without excessive price impact.
Implications for Investors and Traders
The combination of rising open interest, strong volume, and positive price action suggests that market participants are increasingly confident in Marico’s near-term prospects. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and its technical positioning above all major moving averages provide a constructive backdrop for further gains.
However, the decline in delivery volumes signals caution, as it may indicate that long-term investor conviction is not yet fully aligned with the speculative fervour in derivatives. Investors should monitor whether physical market participation picks up to confirm the sustainability of the rally.
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Outlook and Analyst Perspective
Marico’s upgrade from a Sell to a Hold rating on 9 Dec 2025 reflects improving fundamentals and technical signals, as captured by its Mojo Score of 67.0. While the stock is not yet a strong buy, the positive momentum and expanding open interest suggest that it is entering a phase of renewed investor interest.
Investors should watch for confirmation of sustained volume in the cash segment and monitor open interest trends in the coming sessions to gauge whether the current positioning translates into a durable uptrend. The edible oil sector’s sensitivity to raw material prices and regulatory developments remains a key risk factor.
Overall, Marico’s recent derivatives activity and price action indicate a market consensus leaning towards a bullish outlook, albeit with some caution warranted given the mixed signals from delivery volumes.
Conclusion
The sharp increase in open interest for Marico Ltd. derivatives, combined with strong volume and price gains, highlights a significant shift in market positioning towards bullish bets. The stock’s technical strength and outperformance relative to sector and benchmark indices reinforce this positive sentiment. However, the decline in delivery volumes suggests that speculative interest currently dominates, and investors should remain vigilant for confirmation from physical market participation. Marico’s upgraded rating and moderate liquidity profile make it a stock to watch closely in the edible oil space as it approaches its 52-week high.
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