Recent Price Movement and Market Context
On 17 Dec 2025, Modern Dairies’ share price touched Rs.34.11, the lowest level in the past year. This decline comes despite the stock outperforming its sector by 0.36% on the day. The stock has been trading below all key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, signalling a persistent bearish momentum. Over the last five days, the stock has consecutively declined, accumulating a near 9.5% loss in returns.
In contrast, the broader market has shown mixed signals. The Sensex opened 176.40 points higher but later retreated by 384.15 points, closing at 84,472.11, down 0.25%. The index remains close to its 52-week high of 86,159.02, trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a generally bullish market environment. This divergence highlights Modern Dairies’ underperformance relative to the broader market.
Long-Term Performance and Valuation Metrics
Over the past year, Modern Dairies has recorded a negative return of -43.28%, significantly lagging behind the Sensex’s 4.69% gain and the BSE500’s 1.49% return. The stock’s 52-week high was Rs.73.99, underscoring the extent of the decline from its peak.
Financially, the company’s net sales have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -14.86% over the last five years, indicating a contraction in revenue generation. The average Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) stands at 7.41%, which suggests modest profitability relative to the capital invested. The latest six-month profit after tax (PAT) figure is Rs.3.34 crores, reflecting a decline of 53.48% compared to the previous period.
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Valuation and Profitability Considerations
Despite the challenges reflected in its share price, Modern Dairies presents an enterprise value to capital employed ratio of 1.9, which may be considered attractive relative to certain benchmarks. The company’s ROCE of 14.8% indicates a higher return on capital in some recent assessments, though this contrasts with the longer-term average.
Interestingly, while the stock price has declined by over 40% in the past year, the company’s profits have shown a rise of 28.4% during the same period. This disparity is reflected in a price/earnings to growth (PEG) ratio of 0.2, suggesting that the market valuation does not fully align with recent profit growth.
Shareholding and Sectoral Position
Modern Dairies operates within the FMCG sector, a segment known for its competitive dynamics and sensitivity to consumer demand fluctuations. The majority shareholding remains with promoters, indicating concentrated ownership. The stock’s current valuation is at a premium compared to the average historical valuations of its peers, which may influence market perceptions.
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Summary of Key Financial Indicators
Modern Dairies’ financial indicators over recent periods reveal a complex picture. The negative CAGR in net sales over five years contrasts with a recent rise in profits. The average ROCE suggests moderate returns on capital, while the enterprise value to capital employed ratio points to a valuation that may be considered reasonable in some contexts. The stock’s trading below all major moving averages reflects prevailing market sentiment and technical weakness.
In the broader market context, the Sensex’s proximity to its 52-week high and its position above key moving averages highlight a divergence between Modern Dairies’ performance and the overall market trend. This gap underscores the specific challenges faced by the company within the FMCG sector and its current valuation environment.
Conclusion
Modern Dairies’ fall to a 52-week low of Rs.34.11 marks a notable point in its recent trading history. The stock’s performance over the past year and recent months reflects a combination of subdued revenue growth, fluctuating profitability, and valuation considerations. While the broader market maintains a generally positive trajectory, Modern Dairies continues to navigate a challenging phase characterised by sustained price declines and trading below key technical levels.
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