Stock Price Movement and Market Context
On 4 December 2025, Modern Dairies’ share price touched Rs.38.01, the lowest level recorded in the past year. This price point reflects a decline of over 48% from its 52-week high of Rs.73.99. Despite the stock outperforming its sector by 0.52% on the day, it remains below all key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages. This positioning indicates sustained downward momentum over multiple time frames.
The broader market environment showed resilience, with the Sensex recovering from an initial dip of 119.25 points to close 280.68 points higher at 85,268.24, a gain of 0.19%. The Sensex is currently trading just 1.04% below its 52-week high of 86,159.02, supported by bullish moving averages where the 50-day moving average remains above the 200-day moving average. Mid-cap stocks led the market rally, with the BSE Mid Cap index gaining 0.28% on the day.
Financial Performance and Growth Trends
Modern Dairies’ financial data over the past year reveals a challenging environment for the company. The stock’s one-year performance shows a decline of 42.35%, significantly underperforming the Sensex, which recorded a positive return of 5.31% over the same period. This divergence underscores the stock’s relative weakness within the FMCG sector and the broader market.
Over the last five years, the company’s net sales have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -14.86%, indicating contraction in revenue streams. Profitability metrics also reflect subdued returns, with an average Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) of 7.41%, suggesting limited efficiency in generating profits from its capital base.
In the latest six-month period ending September 2025, the company reported a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs.3.34 crore, which represents a decline of 53.48% compared to the previous corresponding period. This flat result highlights the difficulties faced in maintaining earnings momentum amid competitive pressures and market conditions.
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Valuation and Comparative Metrics
Despite the subdued price performance, Modern Dairies’ valuation metrics present a mixed picture. The company’s ROCE of 14.8% and an enterprise value to capital employed ratio of 2.2 suggest a fair valuation relative to its capital base. However, the stock is trading at a premium compared to the average historical valuations of its peers within the FMCG sector.
Interestingly, while the stock price has declined by 42.35% over the past year, the company’s profits have shown an increase of 28.4% during the same period. This disparity is reflected in a price/earnings to growth (PEG) ratio of 0.3, indicating that earnings growth has not been fully captured in the stock price.
The majority shareholding remains with promoters, which may influence strategic decisions and long-term company direction.
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Technical Indicators and Recent Price Trends
Modern Dairies has experienced a three-day consecutive decline prior to the recent trading session, where it recorded a modest gain. Despite this short-term reversal, the stock remains below all major moving averages, signalling persistent downward pressure. The 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages all lie above the current price level, indicating that the stock has yet to regain upward momentum in technical terms.
The stock’s day change of -1.89% on the day it hit the 52-week low further emphasises the ongoing challenges in price stability. This contrasts with the broader market’s positive trajectory, where indices such as the Sensex and BSE Mid Cap have shown gains.
Sector and Market Comparison
Within the FMCG sector, Modern Dairies’ performance has lagged behind peers and the overall market. While the BSE500 index has generated a return of 2.51% over the past year, Modern Dairies’ stock has recorded a negative return of 42.35%. This underperformance highlights the divergence between the company’s stock price movement and the broader market trends.
The FMCG sector itself has seen mixed results, with some companies benefiting from steady demand and others facing pricing pressures and competitive dynamics. Modern Dairies’ current valuation and financial metrics suggest that it is navigating a more challenging environment relative to its sector counterparts.
Summary of Key Data Points
To summarise, Modern Dairies’ stock has reached a 52-week low of Rs.38.01, reflecting a significant decline from its peak of Rs.73.99. The company’s financial indicators show a contraction in net sales over five years, subdued profitability with an average ROCE of 7.41%, and a recent decline in PAT over six months. Despite these challenges, profit growth over the past year has been positive, though not yet reflected in the stock price.
The stock’s technical position remains weak, trading below all major moving averages, while the broader market and FMCG sector indices have shown resilience. Valuation metrics indicate a fair to premium pricing relative to peers, with promoter shareholding remaining dominant.
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