Stock Price Movement and Market Context
On 4 December 2025, Modern Dairies’ share price touched Rs.38.01, the lowest level recorded in the past year. This new low follows a sequence of declines, although the stock showed a modest gain today after three consecutive days of falls. Despite this slight uptick, the share price remains below all key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, indicating sustained downward momentum.
In comparison, the broader market has demonstrated resilience. The Sensex, after an initial negative opening of 119.25 points, recovered to close 0.19% higher at 85,268.24 points. The index is currently just 1.04% shy of its 52-week high of 86,159.02, supported by bullish signals such as the 50-day moving average trading above the 200-day moving average. Mid-cap stocks have also led gains, with the BSE Mid Cap index rising by 0.28% on the same day.
Modern Dairies’ performance over the past year has diverged markedly from these positive market trends. The stock has recorded a negative return of 42.35%, while the Sensex has shown a gain of 5.31% over the same period. This underperformance highlights the challenges faced by the company within the FMCG sector.
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Financial Performance and Valuation Metrics
Modern Dairies’ financial data over recent years provides insight into the pressures on its stock price. The company’s net sales have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -14.86% over the last five years, indicating a contraction in revenue. This trend contrasts with the FMCG sector’s general growth trajectory and suggests difficulties in expanding the company’s market share or product reach.
Profitability metrics also reflect a subdued performance. The average Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) stands at 7.41%, which is relatively low and points to limited efficiency in generating returns from the company’s capital base. The latest six-month period ending September 2025 saw the company’s profit after tax (PAT) at Rs.3.34 crores, representing a decline of 53.48% compared to the previous period. This flat result underscores the challenges in maintaining earnings momentum.
Despite these figures, some valuation indicators suggest a nuanced picture. The company’s ROCE of 14.8% and an enterprise value to capital employed ratio of 2.2 indicate a fair valuation relative to its capital structure. However, the stock trades at a premium compared to the average historical valuations of its peers, which may reflect market expectations or other factors not immediately evident in the financials.
Interestingly, while the stock price has declined by over 42% in the past year, the company’s profits have risen by 28.4% during the same period. This divergence is reflected in a price/earnings to growth (PEG) ratio of 0.3, suggesting that earnings growth has not been fully reflected in the share price.
Shareholding and Sector Position
Modern Dairies operates within the FMCG sector, a segment known for its competitive dynamics and consumer-driven demand. The company’s majority shareholding is held by promoters, which often implies a stable ownership structure. However, the stock’s performance relative to sector peers and the broader market indicates that Modern Dairies faces headwinds in maintaining investor confidence and market positioning.
The stock’s current trading below all major moving averages contrasts with the Sensex’s bullish technical indicators, highlighting the divergence between the company’s individual performance and the overall market environment.
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Summary of Key Market and Stock Indicators
To summarise, Modern Dairies’ stock has reached Rs.38.01, its lowest point in the last 52 weeks, reflecting a year of considerable price pressure. The stock’s performance contrasts with the broader market, where indices such as the Sensex and mid-cap segments have shown gains. The company’s financial indicators reveal a contraction in sales over five years and subdued profitability, with recent profit figures showing a decline.
Valuation metrics present a mixed view, with some measures indicating fair value while others highlight a premium relative to peers. The divergence between profit growth and share price performance suggests complexities in market perception or other underlying factors affecting the stock’s valuation.
Modern Dairies remains a notable entity within the FMCG sector, but its recent stock price trajectory and financial data underscore the challenges it faces in aligning with broader market trends and sector performance.
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