Multi Commodity Exchange Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Amid Volatile Trading

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 1 Feb 2026, MCX's open interest (OI) in derivatives rose sharply by 9,465 contracts, a 21.36% increase from the previous day's 44,304 to 53,769. This surge in OI was accompanied by a robust trading volume of 91,358 contracts, indicating strong participation from market players. The futures segment alone accounted for a notional value of approximately ₹1,94,696 lakhs, while the options segment's value was substantially higher at ₹11,91,08,970.62 lakhs, reflecting the extensive hedging and speculative activity in the options market.

The total derivatives turnover for the day stood at ₹2,38,812.05 lakhs, underscoring the liquidity and depth of MCX's derivatives market. The underlying stock price closed at ₹2,201, despite a volatile session marked by a 6.75% intraday volatility and a low of ₹2,148.80, down 15% from the previous close.

Price Action and Market Sentiment

MCX underperformed its sector by a substantial margin, falling 12.75% on the day compared to the sector's modest 0.56% decline and the Sensex's slight 0.19% gain. The stock has been on a downward trajectory for two consecutive sessions, losing 18.11% over this period. Notably, the stock opened with a gap down of 9.02%, signalling early bearish sentiment among investors.

Despite the recent price weakness, MCX's stock remains above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, though it trades below its 5-day and 20-day averages. This technical positioning suggests a short-term correction within a longer-term uptrend, attracting both short sellers and bargain hunters.

Investor Participation and Delivery Volumes

Investor engagement has intensified, with delivery volumes on 30 Jan reaching 40.51 lakh shares, an 82.93% increase over the five-day average. This rise in delivery volume indicates that investors are increasingly taking physical delivery of shares, reflecting conviction in the stock despite recent volatility. The stock's liquidity remains robust, supporting trade sizes up to ₹32.16 crore based on 2% of the five-day average traded value.

Directional Bets and Market Positioning

The sharp rise in open interest alongside a declining stock price suggests that market participants are actively repositioning. The increase in OI typically indicates that new money is entering the market, either through fresh long or short positions. Given the price weakness and gap down opening, it is plausible that a significant portion of this new open interest reflects bearish bets, possibly through futures short positions or put options.

However, the substantial notional value in options trading points to a complex interplay of hedging strategies. Traders may be buying protective puts to guard against further downside or selling calls to generate premium income amid volatility. The elevated options value also hints at speculative interest, with investors positioning for potential sharp moves in either direction.

Mojo Score Upgrade and Market Outlook

MarketsMOJO has upgraded MCX's Mojo Grade from Buy to Strong Buy as of 18 Nov 2025, reflecting improved fundamentals and positive medium-term prospects. The stock's Mojo Score stands at a robust 82.0, signalling strong conviction among analysts. Despite the recent price correction, the upgrade suggests that the underlying business and sector dynamics remain favourable.

MCX operates in the capital markets industry, with a market capitalisation of ₹54,728 crore, categorising it as a mid-cap stock. The company’s role as a leading commodity derivatives exchange positions it well to benefit from rising investor participation and increasing commodity market volatility.

Technical and Fundamental Considerations

From a technical perspective, the stock’s current trading below short-term moving averages but above longer-term averages indicates a potential consolidation phase. Investors should watch for a sustained break below the 50-day moving average as a bearish signal or a rebound above the 20-day average to confirm recovery.

Fundamentally, MCX’s strong market position and improving mojo score support a positive outlook. However, the recent volatility and volume spikes warrant caution, as they may precede further price swings. Investors should monitor open interest trends closely to gauge whether the market is building a directional consensus or preparing for a reversal.

Implications for Investors

For investors, the recent surge in open interest combined with heightened volatility presents both opportunities and risks. The strong increase in derivatives activity suggests that institutional players are actively repositioning, which could foreshadow significant price movements in the near term.

Long-term investors may view the current weakness as a buying opportunity, especially given the stock’s strong mojo rating and fundamental strength. Conversely, short-term traders should remain vigilant for signs of trend continuation or reversal, utilising technical indicators and open interest data to time entries and exits effectively.

Conclusion

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd’s derivatives market activity on 1 Feb 2026 highlights a dynamic and evolving market landscape. The pronounced rise in open interest amid a falling stock price points to active repositioning and complex directional bets by market participants. While the stock faces short-term headwinds, its upgraded mojo grade and solid fundamentals underpin a constructive medium-term outlook. Investors should closely monitor open interest trends, volume patterns, and price action to navigate the evolving risk-reward profile effectively.

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