Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
On 29 January 2026, NATIONALUM's open interest (OI) in futures and options contracts surged by 4,693 contracts, a 19.72% increase from the previous day's 23,800 to 28,493. This sharp rise in OI accompanied a volume of 38,792 contracts, signalling heightened market activity and fresh positioning by traders. The futures segment alone accounted for a value of approximately ₹1,19,896.74 lakhs, while the options segment's notional value stood at an impressive ₹51,003.02 crores, culminating in a total derivatives value exceeding ₹1,39,407.36 lakhs.
The underlying stock price also demonstrated strong momentum, closing near its intraday high of Rs 425, up 4.64% on the day. This price action outperformed the Aluminium & Aluminium Products sector, which gained 2.35%, and the broader Sensex, which declined by 0.20%. NATIONALUM's one-day return of 4.01% further underscores its relative strength in the current market environment.
Market Positioning and Directional Bets
The surge in open interest alongside rising prices and volumes typically indicates fresh long positions being established, suggesting bullish directional bets among market participants. NATIONALUM has recorded six consecutive days of gains, delivering a cumulative return of 17.5% during this period. The stock is trading above all key moving averages—5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day—highlighting a sustained uptrend and strong technical support.
Investor participation has also increased, with delivery volumes rising to 60.15 lakh shares on 28 January, a 3.38% increase over the five-day average delivery volume. This indicates that investors are not only trading the stock actively but are also willing to hold shares, reinforcing confidence in the stock's medium-term prospects.
Liquidity remains robust, with the stock capable of supporting trade sizes up to ₹13.87 crores based on 2% of the five-day average traded value. This liquidity profile facilitates smooth execution of large trades, attracting institutional interest and further supporting price discovery.
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Fundamental and Technical Outlook
National Aluminium Company Ltd operates in the Non-Ferrous Metals industry and holds a mid-cap market capitalisation of approximately ₹77,175 crores. The company’s strong fundamentals are reflected in its MarketsMOJO score of 84.0, which corresponds to a "Strong Buy" rating. This is an upgrade from its previous "Buy" grade as of 11 November 2025, signalling improved confidence in the company’s growth trajectory and valuation metrics.
The stock’s technical setup is compelling, with the recent breakout to a new 52-week high at Rs 425 confirming bullish momentum. The consistent outperformance relative to the sector and benchmark indices further validates the strength of the uptrend. Moving averages acting as support levels provide additional conviction for investors looking to accumulate or hold positions.
Sector and Market Context
The Aluminium & Aluminium Products sector has gained 2.35% on the day, buoyed by positive demand outlook and favourable commodity price trends. NATIONALUM’s outperformance by 1.33% relative to the sector highlights its leadership position and investor preference within the space. The broader market’s muted performance, with the Sensex down 0.20%, emphasises the stock’s defensive qualities and sector-specific tailwinds.
Given the rising open interest and volume, market participants appear to be positioning for further upside in NATIONALUM. The combination of strong fundamentals, technical strength, and improving market sentiment creates a conducive environment for sustained gains.
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Implications for Investors
For investors and traders, the sharp increase in open interest combined with rising prices and volumes suggests a strong bullish consensus. The derivatives market activity indicates that participants are taking fresh long positions, anticipating further appreciation in NATIONALUM’s share price. This is supported by the stock’s technical breakout and sustained outperformance relative to peers and benchmarks.
However, investors should remain mindful of potential volatility, especially given the stock’s mid-cap status and sensitivity to commodity price fluctuations. Monitoring open interest trends, volume patterns, and price action will be crucial to gauge the sustainability of the current rally.
Overall, National Aluminium Company Ltd’s recent market behaviour reflects a robust uptrend underpinned by improving fundamentals and positive investor sentiment. The stock’s upgraded MarketsMOJO grade to "Strong Buy" reinforces its attractiveness as a key player in the Non-Ferrous Metals sector.
Conclusion
The surge in open interest in NATIONALUM’s derivatives contracts is a clear indicator of increased market participation and directional conviction. Coupled with strong price performance, rising delivery volumes, and favourable technical signals, the stock is well positioned for continued gains in the near term. Investors seeking exposure to the aluminium sector should consider NATIONALUM’s compelling risk-reward profile, supported by its upgraded rating and solid market positioning.
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