Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
On 31 Dec 2025, NATIONALUM’s open interest (OI) in derivatives rose sharply by 3,297 contracts, a 12.58% increase from the previous day’s 26,204 to 29,501. This substantial uptick in OI was accompanied by a volume of 30,440 contracts, indicating robust trading activity. The futures segment alone accounted for a value of approximately ₹48,071.6 lakhs, while the options segment’s notional value stood at an impressive ₹32,823.9 crores, culminating in a total derivatives value of ₹55,553 lakhs.
This surge in OI alongside high volumes typically reflects fresh positions being established rather than existing ones being squared off, signalling growing conviction among traders. The underlying stock price also hit a new 52-week high of ₹319.85 on the same day, reinforcing the bullish momentum.
Price Performance and Technical Strength
NATIONALUM’s price has been on an upward trajectory, gaining 5.5% over the last two trading sessions. The stock is trading comfortably above its key moving averages – 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day – which is a strong technical indicator of sustained upward momentum. The day’s gain of 0.41% was in line with the sector’s 0.44% rise, though it lagged slightly behind the Sensex’s 0.81% advance.
Investor participation has also intensified, with delivery volumes on 30 Dec reaching 98.77 lakh shares, a 47.79% increase compared to the five-day average. This heightened delivery volume suggests genuine accumulation rather than speculative trading, which bodes well for the stock’s medium-term prospects.
Market Positioning and Directional Bets
The increase in open interest, combined with rising volumes and price strength, points to a growing bullish consensus among market participants. Traders appear to be positioning for further upside, as evidenced by the elevated futures and options activity. The stock’s liquidity, with a tradable size of approximately ₹10.28 crore based on 2% of the five-day average traded value, supports sizeable institutional and retail participation without significant price impact.
Moreover, NATIONALUM’s dividend yield of 3.32% at the current price adds an attractive income component, enhancing its appeal to long-term investors. The company’s market capitalisation stands at ₹58,304 crore, categorising it as a mid-cap stock within the non-ferrous metals sector, which has been gaining investor interest amid global aluminium demand recovery.
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Mojo Score Upgrade and Analyst Sentiment
Reflecting the positive market developments and strong fundamentals, National Aluminium Company Ltd’s Mojo Score was upgraded to 85.0 on 11 Nov 2025, elevating its Mojo Grade from Buy to Strong Buy. This upgrade underscores the company’s improving financial health, operational efficiency, and favourable valuation metrics relative to its peers in the non-ferrous metals sector.
The company’s Market Cap Grade remains at 2, indicating a mid-cap status with solid growth potential. Analysts highlight the stock’s consistent price strength, rising investor participation, and attractive dividend yield as key factors supporting the bullish outlook.
Sectoral and Broader Market Context
The non-ferrous metals sector has been buoyed by improving global demand for aluminium, driven by infrastructure development and automotive industry recovery. NATIONALUM’s performance aligns with sectoral trends, with the stock’s recent gains mirroring the sector’s 1-day return of 0.44%. However, the stock’s ability to outperform or maintain parity with the Sensex’s 0.81% gain indicates resilience amid broader market fluctuations.
Investors should note that while the derivatives market activity signals bullish positioning, volatility in commodity prices and global trade dynamics could influence near-term price movements. Nonetheless, the current technical and fundamental indicators favour a positive trajectory for NATIONALUM.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
National Aluminium Company Ltd’s recent surge in open interest and volume in the derivatives market, coupled with its strong price performance and technical positioning, suggest that investors are increasingly confident about the stock’s upside potential. The upgrade to a Strong Buy Mojo Grade further validates this positive sentiment.
Given the company’s solid fundamentals, attractive dividend yield, and sector tailwinds, investors may consider accumulating the stock for medium to long-term gains. However, monitoring global aluminium price trends and macroeconomic factors remains crucial to managing risk.
Overall, NATIONALUM stands out as a compelling mid-cap opportunity within the non-ferrous metals space, supported by both technical momentum and fundamental strength.
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