National Aluminium Gains 3.99%: 4 Key Factors Driving This Week’s Momentum

23 February 2026: Opening Week with Technical Softening

National Aluminium commenced the week at ₹338.90, down 0.69% from the previous close of ₹341.25. Despite this minor decline, the stock remained well above its 52-week low of ₹140.00, though still distant from its 52-week high of ₹431.60. The Sensex, in contrast, gained 0.39% to close at 36,817.86, highlighting a divergence between the benchmark and the stock’s early week performance.

Technical indicators began to show signs of moderation. Weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) readings turned mildly bearish, while monthly MACD remained bullish, signalling a potential pause in momentum rather than a reversal. Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered in neutral territory, and Bollinger Bands suggested mild bullishness, indicating contained volatility. These mixed signals set the tone for a cautious market approach.

24 February 2026: Downgrade to 'Buy' Amid Technical Moderation

On 24 February, National Aluminium’s rating was downgraded from 'Strong Buy' to 'Buy' by MarketsMOJO, reflecting a tempered technical outlook despite robust fundamentals. The stock rebounded to ₹343.45, gaining 1.34%, while the Sensex declined 0.78% to 36,530.09. This divergence underscored the stock’s relative resilience amid broader market weakness.

The downgrade was driven primarily by a shift in technical momentum from bullish to mildly bullish. Weekly MACD remained mildly bearish, and Dow Theory and On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicators showed no clear trend, suggesting consolidation. However, the company’s fundamentals remained strong, with a low debt profile, high Return on Capital Employed (33.90%), and consistent profit growth of 27.30% year-to-date. Institutional investors held a significant 32.02% stake, reinforcing confidence in the stock’s long-term prospects.

25 February 2026: Sharp Open Interest Surge and Bullish Momentum

The stock experienced a significant bullish shift on 25 February, closing at ₹359.85, up 4.78% on heavy volume of 990,015 shares. This surge coincided with a 13.28% increase in derivatives open interest, rising by 2,934 contracts to 25,027, signalling strong market participation and bullish positioning. Futures and options combined traded value reached approximately ₹91,097.39 lakhs, underscoring heightened investor activity.

National Aluminium outperformed its sector and the Sensex, with a 1-day return of 4.20% compared to the sector’s 1.90% and Sensex’s 0.22%. The stock traded above its 5-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, although it remained just below the 20-day average, indicating short-term consolidation amid a longer-term uptrend.

Investor participation strengthened, with delivery volumes rising 20.51% over the five-day average, reflecting genuine accumulation. The company’s dividend yield stood at a healthy 3.2%, adding income appeal. Market capitalisation was approximately ₹65,090 crores, consistent with its mid-cap status.

26 February 2026: Continued Gains Amid Mixed Technical Signals

On 26 February, the stock gained a further 0.39%, closing at ₹361.25 on moderate volume. The Sensex also advanced 0.19% to 36,748.49. Technical momentum improved, with daily moving averages firmly bullish and the monthly MACD turning positive, signalling strengthening longer-term momentum. The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator remained bullish on weekly and monthly charts, reinforcing the positive trend.

However, weekly MACD and Dow Theory indicators remained mildly bearish or neutral, suggesting some short-term caution. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings stayed neutral, indicating no immediate overbought conditions. Bollinger Bands on weekly charts signalled a strong upward trend, though the monthly bands were only mildly bullish, implying potential for further gains tempered by volatility risk.

27 February 2026: Week Closes with Minor Pullback Amid Broader Market Weakness

The week concluded with a slight pullback on 27 February, as National Aluminium closed at ₹354.85, down 1.77% from the previous day’s close. This decline occurred alongside a broader market sell-off, with the Sensex falling 1.16% to 36,322.56. The stock’s weekly gain of 3.99% nonetheless marked a clear outperformance versus the Sensex’s 0.96% loss.

Volume was relatively low at 108,601 shares, suggesting profit-taking or consolidation after the prior days’ strong advances. Technical indicators remained mixed: while monthly MACD and KST oscillators stayed bullish, weekly MACD and Dow Theory signals continued to advise caution. The stock’s position just below the 20-day moving average hinted at near-term resistance, warranting close monitoring for further directional cues.

Key Takeaways

Positive Signals: National Aluminium demonstrated robust relative strength, gaining 3.99% for the week while the Sensex declined 0.96%. The sharp surge in derivatives open interest and volume on 25 February indicated strong bullish positioning and investor confidence. Fundamental metrics remain solid, with low debt, high ROCE (33.90%), and consistent profit growth of 27.30% year-to-date. The stock trades above key moving averages, supported by bullish monthly MACD and KST indicators.

Cautionary Notes: Technical momentum softened early in the week, prompting a downgrade from Strong Buy to Buy. Weekly MACD and Dow Theory signals remain mildly bearish or neutral, suggesting potential short-term consolidation or volatility. The stock’s position just below the 20-day moving average and neutral RSI readings imply resistance and limited immediate upside. The slight pullback on the final trading day reflects profit-taking amid broader market weakness.

Conclusion

National Aluminium Company Ltd’s week was characterised by a blend of fundamental strength and evolving technical dynamics. The stock’s 3.99% weekly gain amid a declining Sensex highlights its relative resilience and appeal within the non-ferrous metals sector. While the downgrade to a Buy rating signals a more cautious stance, the surge in open interest and bullish monthly indicators suggest underlying positive momentum. Investors should weigh the strong fundamentals and sector tailwinds against mixed short-term technical signals, monitoring key moving averages and volume trends for confirmation of sustained gains or signs of consolidation.

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