NCC Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Bearish Signals

Technical Trend Overview

The construction sector player NCC Ltd (Stock ID: 545305) currently trades at ₹155.05, down 1.65% from the previous close of ₹157.65 on 12 Feb 2026. The stock’s 52-week range spans from ₹138.50 to ₹242.00, indicating significant volatility over the past year. Recent technical assessments reveal a shift in momentum, with the overall trend moving from mildly bearish to bearish.

On the daily chart, moving averages have turned bearish, signalling downward pressure in the short term. The weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains mildly bullish, suggesting some underlying positive momentum, but this is contradicted by the monthly MACD which is firmly bearish. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights a complex technical picture where short-term optimism is overshadowed by longer-term weakness.

Momentum Indicators: MACD and RSI

The MACD indicator, a key momentum oscillator, shows a mixed signal for NCC Ltd. The weekly MACD line remains above its signal line, indicating mild bullish momentum in the near term. However, the monthly MACD has crossed below its signal line, confirming a bearish trend over the longer horizon. This suggests that while short-term rallies may occur, the dominant trend remains negative.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently provides no clear signal, hovering in neutral zones. This lack of directional RSI momentum implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further downside or consolidation before a decisive move emerges.

Bollinger Bands and KST Analysis

Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart have turned bearish, with the price approaching the lower band, signalling increased selling pressure. On the monthly chart, the bands are mildly bearish, reinforcing the longer-term downtrend. The KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator, which aggregates multiple rate-of-change measures, confirms bearish momentum on both weekly and monthly scales, adding weight to the negative outlook.

Volume and Dow Theory Signals

On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows mildly bullish signals on the weekly chart, suggesting some accumulation by investors despite price weakness. However, the monthly OBV remains neutral, indicating no sustained volume-driven trend. Dow Theory analysis presents a mildly bullish weekly signal but no clear trend on the monthly timeframe, reflecting the mixed technical environment.

Comparative Performance Against Sensex

Examining NCC Ltd’s returns relative to the Sensex reveals a challenging performance over recent periods. The stock has marginally declined by 0.03% over the past week, while the Sensex gained 0.50%. Over one month, NCC Ltd outperformed with a 4.27% gain versus 0.79% for the Sensex, but year-to-date returns show a 3.31% loss compared to a 1.16% decline in the benchmark.

Longer-term returns paint a mixed picture: NCC Ltd has underperformed the Sensex over the past year with a 21.05% loss against a 10.41% gain, yet it has outpaced the benchmark over three, five, and ten-year horizons. Specifically, the stock delivered 65.56% returns over three years versus 38.81% for the Sensex, 71.80% over five years against 63.46%, but lagged over ten years with 172.98% compared to the Sensex’s 267.00%.

Mojo Score and Ratings Update

NCC Ltd’s MarketsMOJO score currently stands at 36.0, reflecting a Sell rating, downgraded from Hold on 20 Oct 2025. This downgrade aligns with the deteriorating technical indicators and bearish trend shifts. The company’s market capitalisation grade is low at 3, indicating limited size and liquidity relative to peers. The downgrade signals increased caution for investors, suggesting that NCC Ltd may face headwinds in the near term.

Moving Averages and Daily Price Action

Daily moving averages have turned bearish, with the stock price trading below key averages, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. On 12 Feb 2026, NCC Ltd’s intraday range was ₹154.50 to ₹158.65, closing near the lower end, which may indicate selling pressure. The gap between the current price and the 52-week high of ₹242.00 underscores the significant correction the stock has undergone.

Sector and Industry Context

Within the construction sector, NCC Ltd faces competitive pressures and cyclical challenges. The sector’s performance often correlates with broader economic conditions and infrastructure spending. Given the mixed technical signals and recent price weakness, investors should weigh sector fundamentals alongside technical momentum before committing capital.

Investor Takeaway

Technical analysis of NCC Ltd reveals a cautious outlook with bearish momentum dominating across multiple indicators. The divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings, combined with bearish moving averages and Bollinger Bands, suggests that the stock may face continued downward pressure in the near to medium term. Neutral RSI readings imply that the stock is not yet oversold, leaving room for further declines or sideways consolidation.

Investors should consider the recent downgrade to a Sell rating and the company’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over the past year. While longer-term returns have been favourable, the current technical environment advises prudence. Monitoring volume trends and sector developments will be crucial to identifying any potential reversal or entry points.

Given the mixed signals and the stock’s technical deterioration, a cautious approach is warranted. Investors seeking exposure to the construction sector might explore alternative stocks with stronger technical profiles or more favourable momentum indicators.

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