Key Events This Week
19 Jan: Technical momentum shifts amid bearish signals
20 Jan: Upgrade to Hold rating as valuation and financials improve
20 Jan: Valuation shifts to very attractive despite market pressure
22 Jan: Technical momentum deteriorates further with bearish trend
19 January 2026: Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Bearish Signals
On Monday, NCL Industries Ltd opened the week under pressure, closing at ₹193.90, down 3.53% from the previous close. The stock’s technical momentum shifted from a sideways to a mildly bearish stance, driven by daily moving averages signalling downward momentum. Despite a weekly MACD that remained mildly bullish, the monthly MACD turned bearish, indicating weakening longer-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered in neutral territory, while Bollinger Bands suggested increased volatility with a bearish bias. Volume indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) remained bullish, hinting at some accumulation despite price weakness. This complex technical picture reflected growing investor caution amid broader market pressures in the cement sector.
20 January 2026: Upgrade to Hold as Valuation and Financials Improve
Tuesday saw a notable upgrade in NCL Industries’ investment rating from 'Sell' to 'Hold' by MarketsMOJO, reflecting improved valuation and financial metrics despite mixed technical signals. The stock closed at ₹190.85, down 1.57% on the day, continuing its downward trend. Valuation metrics were a key driver of the upgrade: the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio stood at 15.38, significantly lower than sector peers such as Shree Digvijay Cement (PE 35.22), while the Price to Book Value ratio was near parity at 0.98. The Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of 7.99 further underscored the stock’s attractive pricing relative to earnings. Financially, the company reported a strong quarterly Profit After Tax (PAT) of ₹26.57 crores, a 191.9% increase over the previous four-quarter average, and maintained a healthy interest coverage ratio of 11.00 times with low debt levels (Debt to Equity 0.34). However, longer-term trends showed subdued operating profit growth and declining profits over the past year, tempering enthusiasm.
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20 January 2026: Valuation Shifts to Very Attractive Amid Market Pressure
Later on the same day, further analysis highlighted a shift in NCL Industries’ valuation from attractive to very attractive, despite ongoing share price declines. The stock’s PE ratio of 15.38 and Price to Book Value of 0.98 positioned it favourably against peers such as Saurashtra Cement (PE 29.69) and Shree Digvijay Cement (PE 35.22). The EV/EBITDA ratio of 7.99 was also comfortably below sector averages, signalling a discount relative to earnings and cash flow. While the stock closed at ₹190.85, down 1.57% on the day, these valuation metrics suggested a potential opportunity for value investors. The company’s modest returns on capital employed (7.40%) and equity (6.38%), combined with a dividend yield of 1.55%, added to the stock’s appeal. However, the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over one year (-7.46% vs +8.65%) and longer periods indicated ongoing challenges. The MarketsMOJO upgrade to Hold with a Mojo Score of 51.0 reflected this balanced outlook.
22 January 2026: Technical Momentum Deteriorates Further
By Thursday, NCL Industries’ technical momentum worsened, with the stock closing at ₹189.40, down 0.32% on the day. The overall technical trend shifted from mildly bearish to bearish, confirmed by daily moving averages remaining below the stock price and bearish Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts. The weekly MACD remained mildly bullish, but the monthly MACD stayed bearish, reinforcing the longer-term downtrend. The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator showed a divergence between weekly mild bullishness and monthly bearishness. Volume indicators painted a mixed picture: the weekly On-Balance Volume was mildly bearish, while the monthly OBV was bullish, suggesting longer-term accumulation despite short-term selling pressure. Dow Theory assessments aligned with these bearish signals. The stock’s one-week return of -7.09% lagged the Sensex’s -1.77%, underscoring relative weakness. The MarketsMOJO Hold rating and Mojo Score of 51.0 reflected cautious optimism amid these technical challenges.
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Daily Price Performance vs Sensex
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Rs.193.90 | -3.53% | 36,650.97 | -0.49% |
| 2026-01-20 | Rs.190.85 | -1.57% | 35,984.65 | -1.82% |
| 2026-01-21 | Rs.190.00 | -0.45% | 35,815.26 | -0.47% |
| 2026-01-22 | Rs.189.40 | -0.32% | 36,088.66 | +0.76% |
| 2026-01-23 | Rs.187.00 | -1.27% | 35,609.90 | -1.33% |
Key Takeaways
Valuation Appeal Amid Price Weakness: Despite a nearly 7% weekly decline, NCL Industries’ valuation metrics improved significantly, with a PE ratio of 15.38 and Price to Book Value near 1.0, making it attractively priced relative to peers in the cement sector.
Mixed Technical Signals: The stock’s technical momentum shifted from sideways to bearish, with daily moving averages and Bollinger Bands indicating downside risk. However, oscillators such as weekly MACD and KST, along with monthly OBV, suggest intermittent accumulation and potential short-term rebounds.
Financial Performance Highlights: The company reported strong quarterly PAT growth of 191.9% and maintained a robust interest coverage ratio, supported by low leverage. Yet, longer-term operating profit and net profit trends remain subdued, reflecting challenges in sustaining growth.
Relative Underperformance: NCL Industries underperformed the Sensex across multiple timeframes, including a 6.97% weekly decline versus a 3.31% drop in the benchmark, highlighting sectoral and company-specific headwinds.
Conclusion
NCL Industries Ltd’s week was characterised by a notable decline in share price amid a complex interplay of technical weakness and improving valuation fundamentals. The upgrade from Sell to Hold by MarketsMOJO reflects a cautious optimism grounded in attractive valuation metrics and recent financial improvements, despite ongoing challenges in momentum and longer-term growth. Investors should weigh the stock’s relative underperformance and bearish technical signals against its valuation appeal and solid quarterly results. The mixed technical indicators suggest that while short-term tactical opportunities may arise, a clear trend reversal has yet to materialise. Given the cement sector’s cyclical nature and the company’s moderate profitability, a prudent approach with close monitoring of momentum and fundamental developments is advisable.
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