Nelcast Ltd. Faces Intensified Downtrend Amid Technical Momentum Shift

Price Movement and Market Context

On 9 January 2026, Nelcast closed at ₹97.20, down 5.81% from the previous close of ₹103.20. The intraday range saw a high of ₹103.65 and a low of ₹97.20, reflecting heightened volatility. The stock remains significantly below its 52-week high of ₹180.65, while still above the 52-week low of ₹78.00. This price contraction underscores the pressure the stock has faced over the past year.

Comparatively, Nelcast’s returns have lagged behind the broader market benchmark, the Sensex, across multiple timeframes. Over the past week, the stock declined 6.45% versus the Sensex’s modest 1.18% drop. The one-month and year-to-date returns for Nelcast were -9.33% and -6.85%, respectively, while the Sensex posted declines of just over 1% in both periods. Over the longer term, Nelcast’s one-year return was -17.56%, starkly contrasting with the Sensex’s 7.72% gain. Even over three and five years, Nelcast underperformed the Sensex, with returns of -14.89% and 53.19% against 40.53% and 72.56%, respectively. The ten-year comparison also reveals a significant gap, with Nelcast at 40.36% versus the Sensex’s robust 237.61%.

Technical Indicator Analysis

The technical landscape for Nelcast has deteriorated, with multiple indicators signalling bearish momentum. The overall technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, reflecting increased downside risk.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating sustained selling pressure and a lack of upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents a mixed picture: weekly RSI is bullish, suggesting some short-term buying interest or oversold conditions, but the monthly RSI shows no clear signal, implying a lack of sustained strength over the longer term.

Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly timeframes are bearish, signalling that the stock price is trading near the lower band and volatility remains elevated. This often indicates downward momentum with potential for further declines if the trend persists.

Daily moving averages reinforce the bearish outlook, with the stock trading below key averages, signalling that short-term price action is weak. The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is bearish on the weekly chart but mildly bullish on the monthly, again reflecting short-term weakness amid some longer-term stabilisation attempts.

Dow Theory assessments are mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly scales, suggesting that the broader trend remains negative but not decisively so. On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings are mildly bearish weekly but bullish monthly, indicating that while recent volume trends have been negative, longer-term accumulation may be occurring.

Mojo Score and Rating Update

MarketsMOJO’s latest assessment downgraded Nelcast Ltd.’s Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell on 20 October 2025, reflecting the deteriorating technical and fundamental outlook. The current Mojo Score stands at 40.0, a level consistent with a Sell rating. The Market Cap Grade is 3, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers in the Castings & Forgings sector.

This downgrade aligns with the technical signals and price performance, signalling caution for investors. The bearish technical trend, combined with underperformance relative to the Sensex, suggests that the stock may face continued headwinds in the near term.

Sector and Industry Context

Nelcast operates within the Castings & Forgings industry, a sector that has faced cyclical challenges amid fluctuating demand and raw material cost pressures. The sector’s performance has been mixed, with some companies managing to sustain growth while others, like Nelcast, have struggled to maintain momentum.

Given the technical weakness and relative underperformance, investors should carefully weigh sector dynamics alongside company-specific factors before considering exposure to Nelcast.

Investor Implications and Outlook

Investors should approach Nelcast with caution given the prevailing technical signals and recent price weakness. The bearish MACD and moving averages, combined with the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex, suggest that downside risks remain elevated. While the weekly RSI shows some short-term bullishness, this is insufficient to offset the broader negative momentum.

Longer-term investors may want to monitor the monthly indicators, particularly the mildly bullish KST and OBV readings, for signs of a potential turnaround. However, until a clear technical reversal emerges, the stock’s outlook remains subdued.

Risk-averse investors might consider alternatives within the Castings & Forgings sector or related industries that demonstrate stronger technical and fundamental profiles. Active monitoring of key support levels, such as the recent low near ₹78.00, will be critical to managing downside exposure.

In summary, Nelcast Ltd. currently faces a challenging technical environment with multiple bearish indicators dominating the charts. The downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO further underscores the need for prudence in portfolio allocation involving this stock.

Summary of Key Technical Metrics:

• Current Price: ₹97.20 (down 5.81% on 9 Jan 2026)


• MACD: Weekly & Monthly Bearish


• RSI: Weekly Bullish, Monthly Neutral


• Bollinger Bands: Weekly & Monthly Bearish


• Moving Averages (Daily): Bearish


• KST: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Mildly Bullish


• Dow Theory: Weekly & Monthly Mildly Bearish


• OBV: Weekly Mildly Bearish, Monthly Bullish


• Mojo Score: 40.0 (Sell), downgraded from Hold on 20 Oct 2025

Comparative Returns vs Sensex:

• 1 Week: Nelcast -6.45%, Sensex -1.18%


• 1 Month: Nelcast -9.33%, Sensex -1.08%


• Year-to-Date: Nelcast -6.85%, Sensex -1.22%


• 1 Year: Nelcast -17.56%, Sensex +7.72%


• 3 Years: Nelcast -14.89%, Sensex +40.53%


• 5 Years: Nelcast +53.19%, Sensex +72.56%


• 10 Years: Nelcast +40.36%, Sensex +237.61%

Overall, the technical and fundamental signals for Nelcast Ltd. suggest a cautious stance is warranted. Investors should closely monitor developments and consider portfolio diversification to mitigate risks associated with this stock’s current trajectory.

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