Technical Momentum Shifts to Bearish Territory
NDTV’s current price stands at ₹80.98, down 1.51% from the previous close of ₹82.22, reflecting ongoing selling pressure. The stock is trading near its 52-week low of ₹77.20, significantly below its 52-week high of ₹140.50, underscoring a prolonged downtrend. The technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling a more pronounced negative momentum.
The daily moving averages have turned bearish, with the stock price consistently trading below its short-term and medium-term averages. This alignment typically indicates that sellers are in control and that the stock may continue to face downward pressure in the near term.
MACD and RSI Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on both weekly and monthly timeframes. The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram continues to show negative values, confirming the prevailing downtrend. This persistent bearish MACD reading suggests that momentum is unlikely to reverse in the short term without significant positive catalysts.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly and monthly charts shows no clear signal, hovering in a neutral zone. The absence of oversold or overbought conditions implies that the stock is not yet at an extreme level, leaving room for further downside or sideways movement before a potential reversal.
Bollinger Bands and Other Indicators
Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts are also bearish, with the stock price hugging the lower band. This pattern often indicates sustained selling pressure and increased volatility. The lack of a rebound towards the middle band suggests that the stock remains weak relative to its recent trading range.
On the other hand, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator shows a mildly bullish signal on both weekly and monthly timeframes, hinting at some underlying positive momentum. However, this is contradicted by the Dow Theory readings, which are mildly bearish weekly but mildly bullish monthly, reflecting mixed signals and uncertainty in trend direction.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows no clear trend on weekly or monthly charts, indicating that volume is not confirming any strong directional move. This lack of volume support further weakens the case for a sustained rally in the near term.
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Comparative Performance Against Sensex
NDTV’s stock returns have significantly underperformed the benchmark Sensex across multiple time horizons. Over the past week, NDTV declined by 4.94%, compared to Sensex’s modest 1.47% fall. The one-month return shows a slight loss of 0.47% for NDTV, while Sensex gained 0.84%. Year-to-date, NDTV has plunged 15.63%, markedly worse than Sensex’s 3.51% decline.
Over the last year, NDTV’s stock has fallen 20.92%, in stark contrast to the Sensex’s 10.44% gain. The three-year performance is even more concerning, with NDTV down 46.50% while the Sensex surged 38.28%. Although the five-year return for NDTV is positive at 110.99%, it still trails the Sensex’s 61.92% gain when annualised. The ten-year return remains negative for NDTV at -10.39%, compared to a robust 256.13% rise for the Sensex, highlighting the company’s long-term underperformance.
Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Grade
MarketsMOJO assigns NDTV a Mojo Score of 3.0 with a Strong Sell grade, an upgrade in severity from the previous Sell rating dated 02 May 2024. This downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical and fundamental outlook. The Market Cap Grade stands at 4, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers in the media and entertainment sector.
The downgrade to Strong Sell is consistent with the bearish technical indicators and weak price momentum, signalling caution for investors considering exposure to NDTV at current levels.
Sector and Industry Context
NDTV operates within the Media & Entertainment sector, which has faced headwinds from shifting consumer preferences, advertising revenue pressures, and increasing competition from digital platforms. These sectoral challenges compound the company-specific technical weaknesses, making a recovery more difficult in the near term.
Investors should weigh these sectoral risks alongside the technical signals before making investment decisions. The mixed technical signals, such as mildly bullish KST and Dow Theory monthly readings, suggest that any potential recovery may be tentative and require confirmation through improved volume and price action.
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Outlook and Investor Considerations
Given the current technical landscape, NDTV appears to be in a sustained downtrend with limited near-term upside. The bearish MACD, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands reinforce the negative momentum, while the neutral RSI and lack of volume confirmation suggest that a reversal is not imminent.
Investors should exercise caution and consider the broader market context, including sectoral headwinds and the company’s relative underperformance versus the Sensex. The downgrade to a Strong Sell rating by MarketsMOJO further emphasises the risks associated with holding the stock at this juncture.
For those seeking exposure to the media and entertainment space, it may be prudent to explore alternative stocks with stronger technical profiles and more favourable fundamental outlooks. Monitoring key technical indicators for any signs of trend reversal will be essential before considering re-entry into NDTV shares.
Summary
New Delhi Television Ltd’s technical parameters have shifted decisively towards bearishness, with multiple indicators confirming downward momentum. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex and sector challenges compound the negative outlook. While some mildly bullish signals exist, they are insufficient to offset the prevailing downtrend. The Strong Sell Mojo Grade and deteriorating technical trend suggest investors should remain cautious and consider alternative opportunities within the sector.
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