NHPC Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Indicator Signals

Price Momentum and Recent Performance

NHPC Ltd’s stock price closed at ₹83.62 on 5 Jan 2026, up from the previous close of ₹79.71, marking a robust intraday gain of 4.91%. The stock traded within a range of ₹79.50 to ₹83.86 during the session, nearing its 52-week high of ₹92.30, while comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹71.01. This upward price movement reflects a short-term positive momentum, yet the broader technical trend remains cautiously bearish.

When compared to the benchmark Sensex, NHPC has outperformed significantly over shorter and longer time horizons. Over the past week, NHPC returned 6.74% against Sensex’s 0.85%, and over the past month, it gained 8.22% versus Sensex’s 0.73%. Year-to-date returns stand at 5.63% for NHPC compared to 0.64% for the Sensex. However, over the last year, NHPC’s 1.42% return lags behind the Sensex’s 7.28%, indicating some recent underperformance on a yearly scale. Over three, five, and ten years, NHPC has delivered exceptional compounded returns of 109.31%, 261.99%, and 295.37% respectively, far outpacing the Sensex’s 40.21%, 79.16%, and 227.83% returns.

Technical Indicator Analysis: MACD, RSI, and Moving Averages

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly chart. This suggests that while short-term momentum is weak, there is a slight improvement in the longer-term trend. The weekly MACD’s bearish stance indicates that the stock’s recent gains may face resistance unless momentum strengthens further.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows no clear signal on both weekly and monthly timeframes, hovering in a neutral zone. This lack of directional RSI signal implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for either upward or downward movement depending on other factors.

Daily moving averages are mildly bearish, signalling that the stock price is trading below key short-term averages, which may act as resistance. This mild bearishness in moving averages aligns with the overall technical trend shift from bearish to mildly bearish, indicating cautious investor sentiment.

Additional Momentum and Volume Indicators

Bollinger Bands present a bullish signal on the weekly chart, suggesting that the stock price is currently trading near the upper band, indicative of upward price pressure. However, the monthly Bollinger Bands are mildly bearish, reflecting some longer-term volatility and potential resistance.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator is bearish on the weekly timeframe and mildly bearish on the monthly, reinforcing the notion of subdued momentum in the near term. Conversely, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is mildly bullish weekly but mildly bearish monthly, indicating mixed volume trends that do not decisively confirm either accumulation or distribution.

Dow Theory readings add further nuance, showing a mildly bullish weekly signal but a mildly bearish monthly signal. This divergence between short- and long-term trend theories highlights the stock’s current technical uncertainty.

Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights

NHPC Ltd currently holds a Mojo Score of 35.0, categorised as a Sell rating, downgraded from a previous Hold on 11 Nov 2025. This downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical momentum and cautious outlook from MarketsMOJO’s comprehensive analysis. The company’s market capitalisation grade stands at 2, indicating a mid-cap status with moderate liquidity and market presence.

The downgrade to Sell is consistent with the mildly bearish technical trend and mixed indicator signals, suggesting that investors should exercise caution and closely monitor price action before committing to new positions.

Comparative Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the Power sector and industry, NHPC Ltd’s technical and fundamental profile must be viewed in the context of sectoral trends. The power sector has seen varied momentum in recent months, influenced by regulatory developments, fuel price fluctuations, and demand-supply dynamics. NHPC’s mixed technical signals mirror the sector’s cautious sentiment, with some stocks showing recovery while others face headwinds.

Investors should weigh NHPC’s technical momentum against sector peers and broader market conditions to identify relative strength or weakness.

Outlook and Strategic Considerations

Given the current mildly bearish technical trend and mixed indicator readings, NHPC Ltd appears to be at a technical crossroads. The bullish signals from weekly Bollinger Bands and OBV suggest potential for upward price movement, but the bearish MACD and KST indicators caution against over-optimism.

Short-term traders may find opportunities in the recent price momentum, especially given the strong weekly and monthly returns relative to the Sensex. However, longer-term investors should remain vigilant, considering the downgrade in Mojo Grade and the lack of clear RSI signals.

Monitoring the stock’s ability to sustain above daily moving averages and break through resistance near the 52-week high of ₹92.30 will be critical for confirming a shift to a more bullish technical stance.

Conclusion

NHPC Ltd’s recent technical momentum shift to mildly bearish territory, combined with mixed signals from key indicators such as MACD, RSI, and moving averages, paints a nuanced picture for investors. While short-term price gains and bullish volume indicators offer some optimism, the overall downgrade in Mojo Grade and persistent bearish signals warrant caution.

Investors should closely monitor the stock’s price action relative to moving averages and resistance levels, alongside sectoral developments, to make informed decisions. The stock’s strong long-term returns versus the Sensex remain a positive backdrop, but near-term technical uncertainty suggests a prudent approach.

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