NMDC Ltd Falls 7.70%: 2 Key Factors Driving the Weekly Decline

Jan 19: Week Opens with a Decline Amid Broader Market Weakness

NMDC Ltd began the week at Rs.81.37, down 1.69% from the previous Friday’s close of Rs.82.77. This decline occurred alongside a 0.49% drop in the Sensex to 36,650.97, reflecting a cautious market mood. The stock’s volume was robust at 1,322,586 shares, signalling active trading interest despite the negative start. The broader market weakness set the tone for the week, with NMDC already under pressure relative to the benchmark index.

Jan 20: Sharp Price Drop as Market Sell-Off Intensifies

On 20 January, NMDC’s stock price fell sharply by 3.12% to Rs.78.83, continuing its downward trajectory amid a severe market sell-off. The Sensex plunged 1.82% to 35,984.65, indicating widespread risk aversion. The stock’s traded volume declined to 772,258 shares, suggesting some reduction in liquidity but sustained selling pressure. This day marked the steepest single-day percentage drop for NMDC during the week, signalling growing bearish sentiment.

Jan 21: Price Stabilises Slightly but Remains Under Pressure

NMDC’s price movement on 21 January was relatively muted, with a marginal 0.20% decline to Rs.78.67. The Sensex also eased by 0.47% to 35,815.26. Volume increased to 917,486 shares, indicating renewed trading activity. Despite the smaller price change, the stock remained below key moving averages, reflecting persistent short-term bearish momentum. This consolidation phase suggested that sellers retained control but buyers were not entirely absent.

Jan 22: Open Interest Surges Amidst Price Decline

Despite a 0.51% price decline to Rs.78.27 on 22 January, NMDC witnessed a significant 16.93% increase in open interest in its derivatives segment, rising from 83,073 to 97,137 contracts. This surge in open interest, coupled with futures volume of 51,759 contracts, indicated heightened market activity and positioning adjustments amid the ongoing price weakness. The stock’s delivery volume was 85.6 lakh shares, down 9.72% from the five-day average, suggesting slightly reduced investor participation.

The derivatives market value was substantial, with futures and options combined reaching approximately ₹17,27,53 lakhs, highlighting strong trader interest. The price closed near ₹76, with an intraday low of ₹76.09, down 2.74% on the day and underperforming the Sensex’s 0.77% decline. NMDC traded below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages but remained above the 200-day average, signalling short- to medium-term bearish momentum but long-term support.

Jan 23: Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Signals

On the final trading day of the week, NMDC closed at Rs.76.40, down 2.39%, continuing its six-day losing streak. Technical indicators revealed a nuanced shift from a bullish to a mildly bullish trend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remained bullish on weekly and monthly charts, supporting medium- and long-term momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered near neutral levels, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands suggested moderate upward pressure without excessive volatility, while the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator showed bullish weekly but mildly bearish monthly signals. Dow Theory assessments echoed this mixed momentum, with mildly bearish weekly and mildly bullish monthly outlooks. On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings were mildly bearish weekly but bullish monthly, reflecting recent selling pressure amid broader accumulation.

NMDC’s one-week return of -6.62% significantly underperformed the Sensex’s -1.29% fall, though the stock’s longer-term returns remain strong, with an 18.9% gain over one year and 111.9% over five years. The MarketsMOJO score improved to 70.0, with a Buy grade as of 1 December 2025, reflecting confidence in the stock’s fundamentals despite recent volatility.

Key Takeaways

The week’s price decline of 7.70% for NMDC Ltd notably outpaced the Sensex’s 3.31% fall, indicating relative weakness in the stock amid broader market volatility. The sharp increase in derivatives open interest on 22 January suggests active positioning by traders, predominantly bearish given the sustained price drop. However, the stock’s position above its 200-day moving average provides a critical long-term support level that may limit further downside.

Technical momentum has shifted to a mildly bullish stance, supported by positive MACD readings and moving averages, but tempered by neutral RSI and mixed volume indicators. This combination points to a cautious outlook with potential for consolidation or a moderate rebound if short-term selling pressure eases.

NMDC’s improved MarketsMOJO score and Buy rating reflect underlying fundamental strength, including a dividend yield of 4.22% and solid mid-cap market capitalisation. These factors may attract value investors seeking opportunities amid recent weakness. Nonetheless, the mixed technical signals and increased open interest warrant close monitoring of price action and volume trends in the coming sessions.

Conclusion

NMDC Ltd’s week was characterised by a pronounced price decline amid heightened derivatives market activity and evolving technical momentum. The surge in open interest alongside falling prices indicates increased bearish positioning, while the technical indicators suggest a tempered but not fully reversed bullish trend. The stock’s long-term support above the 200-day moving average and fundamental upgrades provide a counterbalance to short-term weakness.

Investors and traders should remain attentive to key technical levels and volume patterns as NMDC navigates this phase of volatility. The stock’s strong historical performance relative to the Sensex and its upgraded Buy rating underscore its resilience, but the current environment calls for measured assessment of risk and opportunity in this mid-cap minerals and mining company.

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