NMDC Steel Ltd Shows Bullish Momentum Amid Mixed Technical Signals

Price Movement and Market Context

As of 8 January 2026, NMDC Steel Ltd’s share price closed at ₹45.84, slightly up from the previous close of ₹45.64. The stock traded within a range of ₹45.06 to ₹46.43 during the day, remaining well below its 52-week high of ₹49.62 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹28.35. This price action reflects a steady recovery phase, supported by improving technical momentum.

Comparatively, NMDC Steel has outperformed the Sensex over the short term. The stock posted a 3.57% return over the past week and an 11.37% gain over the last month, while the Sensex declined by 0.30% and 0.88% respectively during the same periods. Year-to-date, NMDC Steel’s return matches its weekly gain at 3.57%, signalling early-year strength. However, over the one-year horizon, the stock’s 7.23% return trails the Sensex’s 8.65%, indicating some lag in broader market participation.

Technical Indicator Analysis

The recent upgrade in NMDC Steel’s technical trend from mildly bullish to bullish is underpinned by a series of mixed but predominantly positive signals across multiple timeframes and indicators.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): On the weekly chart, the MACD indicator is bullish, suggesting upward momentum is gaining traction. However, the monthly MACD remains mildly bearish, indicating that longer-term momentum has yet to fully confirm a sustained uptrend. This divergence highlights a transitional phase where short-term strength is emerging but longer-term caution remains warranted.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Both weekly and monthly RSI readings currently show no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for further price appreciation without immediate risk of a reversal due to exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands: The stock’s weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands are bullish, indicating that price volatility is expanding upwards and the stock is trading near the upper band. This is typically a sign of strong buying interest and momentum continuation.

Moving Averages: Daily moving averages are bullish, with the stock price trading above key short-term averages. This alignment supports the recent positive price momentum and suggests that buyers are in control in the near term.

KST (Know Sure Thing): The weekly KST indicator is bullish, reinforcing the short-term momentum narrative. The monthly KST remains inconclusive, mirroring the mixed signals seen in the MACD.

Dow Theory: Both weekly and monthly Dow Theory assessments show no clear trend, reflecting uncertainty in the broader market context and the stock’s longer-term directional bias.

OBV (On-Balance Volume): The OBV indicator is bullish on both weekly and monthly charts, signalling that volume trends support the price advances. This volume confirmation is a positive sign for the sustainability of the current uptrend.

Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights

NMDC Steel currently holds a Mojo Score of 46.0, categorised as a Sell rating, though this represents an improvement from its previous Strong Sell grade as of 30 December 2025. This upgrade reflects the recent positive shift in technical momentum and some stabilisation in fundamentals. The company’s market capitalisation grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier valuation relative to its peers in the ferrous metals sector.

Investors should note that while the technical trend has improved, the overall Mojo Grade remains cautious, signalling that risks persist and that the stock may not yet be ready for a full-scale recovery rally. The ferrous metals industry continues to face headwinds from global commodity price fluctuations and demand uncertainties, which could temper upside potential.

Comparative Performance and Sector Context

Over longer horizons, NMDC Steel’s returns have been modest. The stock’s one-year return of 7.23% lags the Sensex’s 8.65%, and data for three, five, and ten-year returns are not available, limiting comprehensive long-term performance analysis. The Sensex’s robust 10-year return of 241.87% underscores the broader market’s outperformance relative to this stock.

Within the ferrous metals sector, NMDC Steel’s technical indicators suggest it is gaining relative strength, but investors should weigh this against sectoral volatility and global steel demand trends. The stock’s current price near ₹45.84 is still below its 52-week high, indicating room for upside if momentum sustains.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

NMDC Steel’s recent technical upgrades signal a potential inflection point in price momentum, with short-term indicators such as the weekly MACD, Bollinger Bands, and OBV turning bullish. The daily moving averages also support a positive near-term outlook. However, the absence of clear monthly momentum confirmation and neutral RSI readings suggest that investors should remain cautious and monitor for sustained volume and price action before committing heavily.

The stock’s relative outperformance against the Sensex in recent weeks is encouraging, but the broader ferrous metals sector’s cyclical nature and external commodity price pressures remain key risks. Investors should consider NMDC Steel as a tactical opportunity within a diversified portfolio, balancing the improving technical signals against fundamental and sectoral uncertainties.

In summary, NMDC Steel Ltd is showing signs of a bullish momentum shift, but the mixed technical signals and moderate Mojo Score advise a measured approach. Continued monitoring of weekly and monthly indicators will be crucial to confirm whether this momentum can translate into a sustained uptrend.

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