Price Movement and Market Context
On 2 Feb 2026, NTPC’s share price closed at ₹345.60, down 2.87% from the previous close of ₹355.80. The intraday range saw a high of ₹360.95 and a low of ₹337.70, reflecting heightened volatility. The stock remains below its 52-week high of ₹371.10 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹292.70, indicating a moderate recovery from recent lows.
Comparatively, NTPC has outperformed the Sensex over multiple timeframes. The stock posted a 1-week return of 2.61% against the Sensex’s -1.00%, a 1-month gain of 6.39% versus the Sensex’s -4.67%, and a year-to-date return of 4.90% compared to the Sensex’s -5.28%. Over longer horizons, NTPC’s 3-year return stands at an impressive 104.68%, significantly surpassing the Sensex’s 35.67%, while the 5-year return of 287.88% dwarfs the Sensex’s 74.40%. However, the 10-year return of 191.65% trails the Sensex’s 224.57%, suggesting some relative underperformance in the longer term.
Technical Trend Shift: Sideways to Mildly Bearish
Recent technical analysis indicates a shift in NTPC’s price momentum. The overall trend has transitioned from a sideways consolidation phase to a mildly bearish outlook. This change is corroborated by several technical indicators, which provide a mixed but cautious signal for traders and investors.
The daily moving averages have turned mildly bearish, signalling that short-term price action is losing upward momentum. This is consistent with the stock’s recent price decline and suggests potential resistance to further gains in the near term.
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MACD and Momentum Indicators
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a bifurcated signal. On the weekly chart, MACD remains bullish, suggesting underlying positive momentum over the medium term. However, the monthly MACD has turned mildly bearish, indicating that longer-term momentum is weakening. This divergence highlights a potential conflict between short- and long-term trends, warranting close monitoring.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligns with this mixed view. Weekly KST readings are bullish, reinforcing the medium-term positive momentum, while monthly KST is mildly bearish, echoing the monthly MACD’s cautionary tone.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Bollinger Bands
RSI readings on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently show no definitive signal, hovering in neutral zones without indicating overbought or oversold conditions. This suggests that the stock is not exhibiting extreme momentum in either direction, which may imply a period of consolidation or indecision among market participants.
Bollinger Bands provide a contrasting perspective. Weekly Bollinger Bands are mildly bullish, indicating that price volatility is contained and the stock may be poised for a rebound. Conversely, monthly Bollinger Bands are bearish, signalling increased volatility and potential downward pressure over the longer term.
Volume and Dow Theory Analysis
On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis reveals no clear trend on either weekly or monthly charts, suggesting that volume is not confirming price movements decisively. This lack of volume confirmation often precedes periods of price uncertainty or trend reversals.
Dow Theory assessments are mildly bullish on both weekly and monthly timeframes, indicating that the broader market sentiment towards NTPC remains cautiously optimistic despite recent technical setbacks.
Market Capitalisation and Mojo Score Implications
NTPC’s market capitalisation grade is rated at 1, reflecting its status as a large-cap entity within the power sector. However, the company’s overall Mojo Score stands at 42.0, which corresponds to a Sell rating. This represents a downgrade from the previous Hold rating assigned on 10 Nov 2025, signalling a deterioration in technical and fundamental outlooks as assessed by MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system.
The downgrade reflects concerns over the stock’s weakening momentum and the mixed signals from key technical indicators. Investors should weigh these factors carefully against NTPC’s strong historical returns and sector leadership.
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Investment Outlook and Strategic Considerations
NTPC’s technical landscape presents a complex scenario. The mildly bearish daily moving averages and monthly MACD suggest caution, while weekly momentum indicators and Dow Theory signals offer some optimism. The absence of strong volume confirmation and neutral RSI readings further complicate the outlook.
For investors, this implies a need for vigilance. Short-term traders might interpret the mildly bearish signals as a cue to reduce exposure or tighten stop-loss levels. Conversely, medium-term investors could view the weekly bullish indicators as a sign to hold positions, anticipating a potential rebound if momentum stabilises.
Fundamental strengths, including NTPC’s dominant position in the power sector and robust long-term returns, remain intact. However, the recent downgrade in Mojo Grade to Sell underscores the importance of integrating technical analysis with broader market and sector trends before making investment decisions.
Comparative Performance and Sector Context
NTPC’s outperformance relative to the Sensex over 1-week, 1-month, and year-to-date periods highlights its resilience amid broader market weakness. Its 3-year and 5-year returns significantly exceed benchmark indices, reflecting strong operational execution and sector tailwinds.
Nonetheless, the 10-year return lagging behind the Sensex suggests that investors should remain mindful of cyclical risks and evolving market dynamics within the power sector. The current technical signals may be an early indication of such shifts.
Conclusion
In summary, NTPC Ltd. is navigating a transitional phase in its price momentum, with technical indicators painting a mixed picture. The shift from sideways to mildly bearish trend, combined with divergent MACD and Bollinger Band signals, calls for a balanced approach to investment decisions.
Investors should monitor key technical levels and volume trends closely, while considering NTPC’s strong historical performance and sector fundamentals. The recent downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO adds a note of caution, suggesting that the stock may face near-term headwinds despite its long-term potential.
As always, a comprehensive analysis incorporating both technical and fundamental factors will be essential to navigate NTPC’s evolving market landscape effectively.
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