NTPC Ltd. Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Market Signals

Technical Trend Overview

NTPC’s technical trend has transitioned from a bearish stance to a mildly bearish one, reflecting a tentative improvement but still signalling caution. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly, suggesting that while short-term momentum is weak, there is a slight easing of downward pressure over the longer term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, currently shows no clear signal on both weekly and monthly timeframes, indicating that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral RSI reading suggests a lack of strong directional conviction among traders at present.

Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages

Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and price levels relative to recent averages, are mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts. This implies that NTPC’s price is hovering near the lower band, signalling potential downward pressure but also the possibility of a rebound if volatility contracts.

Daily moving averages reinforce this mildly bearish outlook, with the stock price currently trading close to these averages but without a decisive breakout. This consolidation phase often precedes a more definitive directional move, making the coming weeks critical for trend confirmation.

Additional Technical Indicators

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which aggregates multiple rate-of-change calculations, remains bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly, aligning with the MACD’s signals. Conversely, the Dow Theory presents a nuanced view: weekly data is mildly bullish, while monthly data remains mildly bearish. This divergence highlights the tension between short-term optimism and longer-term caution among market participants.

On-Balance Volume (OBV), a volume-based indicator, shows mildly bullish momentum on the weekly timeframe but mildly bearish on the monthly, suggesting that recent buying interest has not yet translated into sustained accumulation over the longer term.

Price and Volume Dynamics

NTPC’s current price of ₹329.80 is modestly above yesterday’s close of ₹324.85, with today’s trading range between ₹324.55 and ₹330.60. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹371.10 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹292.70, indicating a relatively stable price corridor amid broader market fluctuations.

Volume trends, as reflected in OBV, suggest cautious accumulation, but the absence of strong RSI signals tempers expectations of a robust rally in the near term.

Comparative Performance Analysis

Examining NTPC’s returns relative to the Sensex reveals a mixed performance. Over the past week, NTPC outperformed the benchmark with a 2.23% gain compared to the Sensex’s 0.22% decline. Similarly, over the last month, NTPC posted a modest 0.78% increase while the Sensex fell by 0.49%. However, year-to-date and over the last year, NTPC has lagged, registering a decline of 1.08% against the Sensex’s robust 9.06% gain.

Longer-term returns paint a more favourable picture for NTPC. Over three years, the stock has surged by 98.26%, significantly outpacing the Sensex’s 40.07% rise. The five-year return is even more impressive at 232.12%, nearly tripling the Sensex’s 78.47%. Over a decade, NTPC’s 171.25% gain trails the Sensex’s 226.30%, reflecting sector-specific challenges and market cycles.

Mojo Score and Grade Implications

NTPC’s current Mojo Score stands at 42.0, placing it in the Sell category, a downgrade from its previous Hold rating as of 10 Nov 2025. This shift reflects deteriorating technical and fundamental metrics, including a Market Cap Grade of 1, signalling limited market capitalisation strength relative to peers. The downgrade underscores the need for investors to exercise caution and reassess their positions in light of evolving market dynamics.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the Power industry and sector, NTPC faces sector-specific headwinds such as regulatory changes, fuel price volatility, and evolving energy demand patterns. These factors contribute to the mixed technical signals and moderate price momentum observed. Investors should weigh these sectoral risks alongside the company’s technical profile when considering exposure.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

Given the current mildly bearish technical trend and mixed indicator signals, NTPC appears to be in a consolidation phase with limited near-term upside momentum. The absence of strong RSI signals and the bearish MACD on weekly charts suggest that any rally may be tentative and subject to volatility.

Investors should monitor key technical levels, particularly the 52-week high of ₹371.10 and the recent support near ₹292.70, to gauge potential breakout or breakdown scenarios. Additionally, volume trends and OBV readings will be critical in confirming sustained buying interest or distribution.

Long-term investors may find value in NTPC’s strong multi-year returns and dominant position in the power sector, but should remain vigilant to sectoral risks and evolving market conditions that could impact performance.

Summary

NTPC Ltd.’s technical momentum has shifted to a mildly bearish stance amid a complex interplay of indicator signals. While short-term momentum indicators like MACD and KST remain bearish, longer-term signals show mild improvement. The stock’s recent price action and volume patterns suggest consolidation, with investors advised to exercise caution given the recent downgrade to a Sell rating and the mixed technical outlook.

Comparative performance against the Sensex highlights NTPC’s resilience over the medium to long term, though recent underperformance year-to-date warrants close attention. Sector-specific challenges and regulatory factors continue to influence the stock’s trajectory, underscoring the importance of a balanced, data-driven investment approach.

Only Rs. 9,999 - Get MojoOne + Stock of the Week for 1 Year (MRP = Rs. 34,999) Start Today