Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Signal Mildly Bullish Outlook

Technical Trend Shift and Price Movement

The stock of Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd (NSE: 10039010) closed at ₹1,380.00 on 10 Feb 2026, marking a 1.89% increase from the previous close of ₹1,354.45. Intraday, the price fluctuated between ₹1,354.60 and ₹1,402.15, reflecting heightened trading activity. Over the past week, the stock surged 7.56%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 2.94% gain, though it has experienced a 3.19% decline over the last month compared to the Sensex’s modest 0.59% rise.

Year-to-date, Nuvama’s stock has declined 6.72%, underperforming the Sensex’s 1.36% fall, but it boasts a robust 22.1% return over the past year, nearly triple the benchmark’s 7.97%. The 52-week price range spans from ₹913.56 to ₹1,702.00, indicating substantial volatility but also room for upside potential.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains mildly bearish, signalling that short-term momentum has yet to decisively turn positive. However, the monthly MACD is neutral, suggesting that longer-term momentum is stabilising. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings implies that while short-term traders may face some headwinds, the broader trend is not deteriorating.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligns with this view, showing a mildly bearish stance on the weekly chart but lacking a clear monthly signal. This further emphasises the transitional phase in momentum, where caution is warranted but outright bearishness is not confirmed.

RSI and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart has turned bullish, indicating growing buying momentum and a potential shift away from oversold conditions. This is a positive sign for short-term traders looking for upward price movement. Conversely, the monthly RSI does not currently provide a definitive signal, reflecting a neutral stance over the longer term.

Bollinger Bands on the weekly timeframe remain sideways, suggesting limited volatility and a consolidation phase. However, the monthly Bollinger Bands have turned bullish, hinting at an expanding price range and the possibility of a sustained upward breakout in the medium term.

Moving Averages and Trend Confirmation

Daily moving averages have shifted to a mildly bullish alignment, with short-term averages crossing above longer-term ones. This crossover is often interpreted as a buy signal, reinforcing the emerging positive momentum. The Dow Theory analysis supports this view, showing a mildly bullish trend on the weekly chart, although the monthly Dow Theory remains mildly bearish, reflecting some caution among longer-term investors.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis reveals no clear trend on the weekly scale, while the monthly OBV is mildly bearish. This divergence suggests that volume-driven confirmation of price moves is currently lacking, which could temper enthusiasm among volume-sensitive traders.

Market Capitalisation and Mojo Ratings

Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd holds a market cap grade of 3, indicating a mid-tier capitalisation within its sector. The company’s Mojo Score has improved to 58.0, upgrading its Mojo Grade from Sell to Hold as of 4 Feb 2026. This upgrade reflects a more favourable technical and fundamental outlook, though it stops short of a Buy rating, signalling that investors should maintain a cautious stance.

Within the Capital Markets sector, Nuvama’s performance is mixed but shows signs of stabilisation and potential recovery. The stock’s recent outperformance relative to the Sensex over the past week and year highlights its capacity for gains, albeit with intermittent volatility.

Investment Implications and Outlook

For investors, the technical signals suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook for Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. The mildly bullish daily moving averages and weekly RSI support the case for short-term gains, while the sideways to mildly bullish Bollinger Bands and Dow Theory trends indicate a possible transition to a more sustained uptrend.

However, the mildly bearish weekly MACD and KST, combined with the lack of volume confirmation from OBV, counsel prudence. These mixed signals imply that while the stock is no longer in a clear downtrend, it has yet to establish strong bullish momentum. Investors should monitor upcoming price action closely, particularly any breakouts above recent highs near ₹1,402, which could confirm a more decisive bullish phase.

Comparative Performance and Sector Context

Compared to the broader Sensex, Nuvama has demonstrated superior returns over the past year, with a 22.1% gain versus the benchmark’s 7.97%. This outperformance underscores the company’s resilience and potential within the capital markets sector. However, the negative returns year-to-date and over the last month highlight ongoing challenges and market volatility that investors must consider.

Longer-term returns for the sector remain robust, with the Sensex delivering 38.25% over three years and 249.97% over ten years, setting a high bar for individual stocks like Nuvama to match or exceed. The company’s current technical upgrade to Hold suggests it is on a path to regain investor confidence but has not yet fully capitalised on sector tailwinds.

Conclusion: Balanced Technical Outlook Calls for Vigilance

Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes reflect a stock in transition. The shift from a sideways to a mildly bullish trend, supported by improved RSI and moving averages, offers a cautiously positive signal for investors. However, the presence of mildly bearish MACD and KST indicators, alongside subdued volume trends, suggests that the stock has not yet fully committed to a sustained rally.

Investors should weigh these mixed signals carefully, considering both the stock’s recent outperformance and its vulnerability to short-term corrections. Monitoring key resistance levels and volume patterns will be critical in assessing whether Nuvama can convert its technical upgrade into a durable upward trajectory.

Given the current Mojo Grade of Hold and a Mojo Score of 58.0, the stock remains a watchlist candidate rather than a definitive buy. Those seeking exposure to the capital markets sector may find better risk-adjusted opportunities elsewhere, as identified by advanced multi-parameter analyses.

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