Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd’s 0.58% Weekly Decline: Bearish Technicals and Derivatives Activity Shape Outlook

16 February: Open Interest Surges Despite Price Weakness

On 16 Feb 2026, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd experienced a significant 11.7% increase in open interest in its derivatives segment, rising from 10,288 to 11,494 contracts. This surge occurred amid a declining stock price, which closed at Rs.1,288.00, down 0.86% for the day. The stock opened with a gap down of 3.09% and touched an intraday low of Rs.1,235.40, reflecting persistent selling pressure.

The combined derivatives turnover was substantial, with futures valued at approximately ₹20,215 lakhs and options at ₹6,577.98 crores, indicating active market positioning. Despite the price weakness, liquidity remained adequate, supporting institutional trade sizes up to ₹1.01 crore. The stock traded below all key moving averages, reinforcing a bearish technical outlook. This divergence between rising open interest and falling prices suggests fresh short positions or hedging strategies amid a complex market environment.

17 February: Death Cross Formation Signals Bearish Trend

The following day, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd formed a Death Cross, a critical technical indicator where the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average. This crossover is widely interpreted as a warning of sustained bearish momentum and potential long-term weakness. The stock closed at Rs.1,289.60, marginally up 0.12%, but the technical signal overshadowed the slight price gain.

Despite a strong one-year total return of 21.63%, the stock has underperformed the Sensex year-to-date by a wide margin, declining 12.43% compared to the benchmark’s 2.08% fall. Other technical indicators, including weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands and MACD, reinforced the bearish outlook. The Mojo Score was downgraded to 42.0, categorised as Sell, reflecting deteriorating fundamentals and technicals. This development marked a clear shift in market sentiment towards caution.

17 February: Technical Momentum Shift Amid Bearish Signals

On the same day, technical momentum indicators revealed a transition from a sideways trend to a mildly bearish stance. The stock traded within a wide intraday range of Rs.1,238.70 to Rs.1,293.25, closing near Rs.1,289.00. The weekly MACD was bearish, while the monthly MACD remained neutral, indicating near-term downward momentum with uncertain longer-term direction.

RSI readings were neutral, suggesting no immediate overbought or oversold conditions, but Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts indicated bearish pressure with prices near the lower bands. Daily moving averages showed mild bullishness, but weekly KST and OBV indicators pointed to weakening momentum and subdued buying interest. The stock’s Mojo Grade downgrade to Sell further emphasised the cautious technical outlook amid sector headwinds.

18 February: Bearish Momentum Confirmed with Technical Downgrade

On 18 Feb 2026, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd’s technical momentum deteriorated further, shifting decisively into bearish territory. The weekly MACD remained bearish, and Bollinger Bands continued to signal downward pressure with the stock trading near the lower band. Daily moving averages turned bearish, with the stock price hovering around Rs.1,295.50.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator stayed mildly bearish, while Dow Theory readings presented a mixed picture: mildly bullish on the weekly timeframe but bearish monthly signals. On-Balance Volume (OBV) trends were also mildly bearish, reflecting weak buying interest and potential distribution. The Mojo Score declined to 37.0, reinforcing the Sell rating and signalling increased caution among market participants.

Price returns over recent periods showed underperformance relative to the Sensex, with a 6.95% weekly decline and a 12.15% drop over the last month, compared to the Sensex’s modest declines of 0.98% and 0.14% respectively. Despite this, the stock’s one-year return remained robust at 21.63%, highlighting resilience amid short-term technical challenges.

19-20 February: Price Consolidation Amid Mixed Market Signals

On 19 Feb, the stock declined 1.84% to Rs.1,293.25, while the Sensex fell 1.45%, reflecting broader market weakness. The following day, 20 Feb, Nuvama closed slightly lower at Rs.1,291.65 (-0.12%), whereas the Sensex rebounded 0.41% to 36,674.32. This divergence highlighted the stock’s continued underperformance relative to the benchmark.

Volume remained subdued, with only 4,461 shares traded on 20 Feb, indicating limited investor conviction. The stock’s position below all key moving averages and the recent technical downgrade suggest that near-term momentum remains fragile. Investors should monitor support levels near Rs.1,238.70, the recent intraday low, for signs of stabilisation or further weakness.

Key Takeaways

1. Bearish Technical Signals Dominate: The formation of a Death Cross and sustained trading below all major moving averages indicate a prevailing bearish trend. Momentum indicators such as MACD and Bollinger Bands reinforce this outlook.

2. Increased Derivatives Activity Amid Price Decline: The sharp rise in open interest alongside falling prices suggests fresh short positions or hedging strategies, reflecting market participants’ cautious stance.

3. Mojo Grade Downgrade to Sell: The downgrade from Hold to Sell on 11 Feb 2026 aligns with deteriorating technical and fundamental conditions, signalling increased risk for investors.

4. Underperformance Relative to Sensex: The stock declined 0.58% over the week while the Sensex gained 0.39%, highlighting relative weakness and sector-specific challenges.

Conclusion

Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd’s week was characterised by technical deterioration and cautious market positioning. Despite a brief price rally midweek, the stock closed lower, weighed down by bearish momentum indicators and a significant derivatives open interest surge amid falling prices. The Death Cross formation and Mojo Grade downgrade to Sell underscore the prevailing negative sentiment. While the stock has demonstrated resilience over the longer term, recent signals suggest that investors should exercise prudence and closely monitor technical developments before considering renewed exposure. The divergence from the Sensex’s modest gains further emphasises the need for careful risk management in the current environment.

Limited Period Only. Start at Rs. 9,999 - Get MojoOne for 1 Year + 3 Months FREE (60% Off) Get 71% Off →